GEN ABIZAID'S MEETINGS WITH OMANI FOREIGN, DEFENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 000599

SIPDIS

USCENTCOM FOR POLAD, CCJ2 AND CCJ5-E
STATE FOR PM, NEA, NEA/ARPI, NEA/RA, INR (MNIEHAUS),INR/B
SECDEF FOR OSD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR PTER SMIG MNUC XF XD MU
SUBJECT: GEN ABIZAID'S MEETINGS WITH OMANI FOREIGN, DEFENSE
OFFICIALS

REF: MUSCAT 547

Classified By: Ambassador Richard L. Baltimore III.
Reason: 1.4 (b, d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Senior Omani foreign affairs and defense officials
shared views with CENTCOM CDR Gen Abizaid on the brewing
tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with the Omanis
consistently advocating direct dialogue as a means to ease
pressures and forestall an Iranian nuclear program. The
Omanis shared USG concern over the governmental gridlock in
Iraq, deeming Sunni Arab participation critical and urging a
de-emphasis of religion in political dialogue. Views were
mixed on whether extremism is losing its appeal in the
region, with some complaints about poor intelligence sharing
within the GCC and continuing finance of terror. The Omanis
described efforts to combat human smuggling from Iran,
Pakistan and Yemen, and shared a positive assessment of
bilateral defense cooperation with the U.S. Oman looks
forward to the delivery in October of F-16 aircraft, and
seeks USG input on the planned airbase in al-Musannah. End
summary.


2. (SBU) General Abizaid, USCENTCOM CDR, paid calls March
29-30 on Minister Responsible for Defense Affairs Sayyid Badr
bin Saud bin Harib al-Busaidi, Minister Responsible for
Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi, and Chief of Staff of the
Sultan's Armed Forces (COSSAF) LTG Ahmed al-Nabhani. General
Abizaid was joined by the Ambassador and senior CENTCOM and
Embassy staff members. In each meeting, General Abizaid
offered a read-out of the current situation in Iraq,
Afghanistan and in the global war on terror, and solicited
Omani reactions.

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Views on Iran
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3. (C) Bin Alawi solicited the General's views on Iran before
confiding his own fears should Tehran truly pursue a nuclear
capability. If Iran is moving forward in its nuclear
development program, every day's progress takes it closer to
a point where it cannot be turned back. It is possible, in
his view, that Tehran is using the dialogue with the EU-3
simply to gain time, and "before we know it, they are testing
a device." But Bin Alawi admitted that Oman is as much in
the dark about Iran's true actions as anyone else. "They
tell us the same thing they tell others," he said. The
minister revealed, however, that former Iranian president
Rafsanjani's brother had recently vacationed in Oman and
vowed that Iran was "fully capable" of building a nuclear
device. Should that day ever come, the tenor of the
international community's negotiations with Iran would change
dramatically. For this reason, Bin Alawi urged rapid
progress toward a diplomatic solution. Should Iran acquire
nuclear weapons, he asked rhetorically "Who would be next?
The Comoros Islands?"


4. (C) Sayyid Badr agreed with others in saying Iran has
major power ambitions, as evidenced by its nuclear program.
He urged "prudent measures" to quell media hype that
threatened to escalate tensions with Iran, noting that the
region cannot afford another conflict. Given the heavy
presence of US forces surrounding Iran, he thought it natural
that Tehran feels itself a target. Nevertheless, he believes
that Iran's dialogue with the EU-3 was reassuring to Tehran
and advocated more direct dialogue (including with the U.S.)
to bring more calm. After all, Sayyid Badr said, Iran hardly
meddled in Afghanistan and has played a reasonably
circumspect role in Iraq as well. Given time, he expects
reforms in Iran to gain momentum and further secure regional
peace and stability. LTG Nabhani separately added his own
take on Tehran, opining that the government was using the
threat to pursue a nuclear program as a means to achieve some
other ends, such as exacting security guarantees from
Washington. Iran will want something in return for
abandoning its nuclear program, he said. "It's not like
Libya."

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Assessing Iraq
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5. (C) The Foreign Minister blamed factional in-fighting and
incessant horse-trading for the failure to form an Iraqi
government, pointing to the Kurds as the biggest single
obstacle. Sayyid Badr was more upbeat, welcoming the recent
elections as a positive development. Agreeing on the need to
win greater Sunni involvement, he is confident of progress
toward establishing a government and the steps that will
follow. With U.S. help, particularly in strengthening Iraqi
security forces, he believes Iraq can again harness its great
potential. LTG Nabhani saw the Iraqi elections as another
source of pressure on the weakened Syrian government. He
echoed the Sultan's views (septel) on the Iraqi flag, terming
it a Baathist relic of the former regime. He urged a fuller
incorporation of Sunni Arabs in the Iraqi political process,
while at the same time minimizing sectarian identity in favor
of a stronger national identity. Saying he did not want to
see Iraq turn into another Iran, he advocated a de-emphasis
of religion in Iraq.

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Terror and Extremism
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6. (C) Asked whether he perceived a lessening of support for
extremist views in the region, the Defense Minister allowed
that that might be "partially" the case. While he
acknowledged great efforts to combat terrorism, he sees Arabs
as still deeply divided over the need for reform. The
Sultan's months-long "tour of the people," he cited, was an
example of reform efforts in Oman, and noted progress in some
other states as well. Sayyid Badr urged positive movement in
the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue to further drain the pretext
for violence. Given the new Palestinian leadership, which he
termed more "dove than hawk," he thought a final settlement
could be achieved. The Minister thanked the USG for its
strong efforts in the global war on terror and vowed that
Oman's Ministry of Defense would not hesitate to cooperate
however it could. LTG Nabhani also urged positive movement
viz Israel-Palestine, to afford greater balance to the
pressures being placed on Iran and Syria. He judged that the
Palestinian issue presents a greater motivator for extremists
than does Iraq.


7. (C) Yusuf bin Alawi took a more critical view. While
asserting that terrorists are finding it more difficult to
hide underground in the Middle East, he faulted GCC states
for not doing enough to combat them. For one, intelligence
coordination within the GCC is very weak, either because the
intel chiefs are incompetents appointed for purely personal
reasons, or because even the capable ones are not given
adequate political support. He likewise decried the lack of
a coherent plan to battle terrorist ideologies. Arabs simply
rely on governments to take action but will not speak out for
themselves. Bin Alawi also believes a number of Wahhabi
groups continue to receive encouragement and support from
some quarters. Certain that Al Qaeda supporters in Saudi
Arabia are unhappy with that government, he said the people
financing those movements, in contrast, live quite
comfortably. Bin Alawi views those financiers as rich people
who seek power through terror for want of any other means.
He opined that a great deal of money laundering for
terrorists takes place in the UAE as part of some cynical
effort by the UAEG to buy peace at home. Qatar, he said,
learned that that strategy does not work.

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Combating Human Smuggling
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8. (C) LTG Nabhani highlighted the improved coordination
between the Royal Navy of Oman and the Royal Oman Police
Coast Guard (ROP-CG) in combating the flow of illegal aliens
from Pakistan and Iran into Oman, typically en route to jobs
in the UAE but in some cases smuggling narcotics as well.
The two services share a command and control center, and the
ROP-CG was taking delivery of fast interdiction boats and
receiving good intelligence from the UK. He assessed Omani
interdiction efforts as improved from previous years, but
said the total number of smugglers is rising at an even
faster rate. His counterpart from the Pakistani military is
due to visit Oman in April, and LTG Nabhani said this topic
was going to be a key point of discussion. Nabhani had
praise for Pakistani President Musharraf, saying the nation
was lucky to have such a tough leader in these times. But he
castigated Pakistan and India for wasting their energies on
the Kashmir dispute while China's economy continues to surge
well ahead. He said Oman's expatriate Pakistani population
was well-behaved and seemingly untouched by some of the bad
influences present elsewhere. Land borders with Yemen, Saudi
Arabia and the UAE were generally well patrolled, he said,
though Yemenis and Somalis continue to infiltrate. He
praised cooperation with Yemen, but noted that country has
more serious security concerns vying for its attention.

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National and Bilateral Defense Issues
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9. (C) Sayyid Badr warmly praised General Abizaid for the
transparency and openness of their consultations. He
positively assessed the recent "Magic Carpet" joint air
exercise held in Southern Oman with UK, French and U.S.
forces, and vowed such cooperation will continue on Oman's
part. General Abizaid congratulated Oman for recently
hosting a successful Middle East Air Symposium. LTG Nabhani
also highly valued "Magic Carpet," saying that while Oman was
still assessing the "lessons learned," he finds joint
exercises to be far more beneficial than doing them
separately. He made a pitch for an additional Omani slot at
the NDU War College, and discussed the various national and
international training opportunities available to Omani
service members. He said there continues to be each year
many times more applicants than recruitment slots (1000-1500)
available in the Royal Army of Oman.


10. (C) Nabhani briefly previewed the upcoming JMC meeting in
June in Washington, DC. He said preparations for the
delivery of the first two of twelve F-16's from the U.S. are
on track for October, and expressed hope that the many Royal
Air Force of Oman personnel undertaking training in the U.S.
will return fully capable of maintaining the aircraft. He
suggested that the USG engage now in consultations with Oman
on requirements for the future airbase in Al Musannah, to
which will eventually be transferred virtually all of the
military operations currently handled at the
military/civilian airport in Seeb. The UK was also being
invited to participate in those consultations. LTG Nabhani
warmly praised his relationship with the Embassy's Office of
Military Cooperation and vowed his door was always open to
them.


11. (U) CENTCOM cleared this cable.
STEWART