Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MUMBAI816
2005-03-21 13:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Mumbai
Cable title:  

GUJARAT: REACTIONS TO VISA REVOCATION MIXED AS PROTESTS

Tags:  CVIS PREL PHUM PGOV KIRF ASEC IN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MUMBAI 000816 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2015
TAGS: CVIS PREL PHUM PGOV KIRF ASEC IN
SUBJECT: GUJARAT: REACTIONS TO VISA REVOCATION MIXED AS PROTESTS
CONTINUE

REF: A) NEW DELHI 2095; B) MUMBAI 756

CLASSIFIED BY: Angus Simmons, Consul General, U.S. Consul
General Mumbai, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MUMBAI 000816

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2015
TAGS: CVIS PREL PHUM PGOV KIRF ASEC IN
SUBJECT: GUJARAT: REACTIONS TO VISA REVOCATION MIXED AS PROTESTS
CONTINUE

REF: A) NEW DELHI 2095; B) MUMBAI 756

CLASSIFIED BY: Angus Simmons, Consul General, U.S. Consul
General Mumbai, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



Summary
--------------


1. (C) The BJP continued its criticism of the USG decision to
revoke the visa of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in a
series of actions in Gujarat over the weekend. The Chief
Minister himself said the USG had ulterior motives at a public
rally and in a discussion with a U.S. journalist. Protesters
targeted several symbols of U.S. presence in western India in
what observers in Gujarat told us were isolated incidents on an
otherwise calm weekend. Reactions to the decision in Gujarat
were mixed. The NGO community wholeheartedly applauded the USG
move, while political parties and Gujarat businessmen were in
general critical. Our contacts expect that the decision will
strengthen Modi in the short run and give him welcome ammunition
against the growing opposition to his rule within his own party.
Opinions are divided about what the decision will mean for
Modi's long-term political fortunes, however. Business leaders
do not expect bilateral commercial and economic ties to suffer,
although in our view the isolated violence against U.S. symbols
and the image of a Chief Minister as an outcast may dampen U.S.
investors' interest in the state. End summary.

USG Has Ulterior Motives, Modi Tells the Faithful
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The BJP party held an open-air rally on Sunday, March
20, in Ahmedabad to protest the USG decision (ref A) to prevent
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi from traveling to the U.S.
Contacts in Gujarat estimate that anywhere from 10,000 to 13,000
people attended the gathering. By all accounts, the turnout was
far less than had been anticipated. The BJP, Modi's party, had
expected up to 30,000 participants, according to one of our
sources. Tejas Patel, a member of the BJP faction in the state
assembly and an outspoken critic of Modi, told us that many of
the participants were police officers who had received orders to

attend the event. National BJP leader Advani and other party
leaders spoke at the rally. Our contacts confirmed press
reports that many of Modi's opponents from within the Gujarat
BJP did not attend the rally. One BJP contact estimated that
only about 27 of the 127 members of the legislative assembly
(MLAs) from the BJP were in attendance.


3. (U) At the rally, Modi did not address the 2002 riots in any
detail, but claimed that the USG had other motives for denying
him a diplomatic visa and revoking his B1/B2 visa. He said the
USG objected to a law he promoted that would restrict religious
conversions in Gujarat. (Note: The bill, passed in March 2003,
has not become a law as the GOG Home Department has yet to frame
the operative guidelines. End Note.) He also argued that the
USG felt threatened by an economically strong Gujarat. "The USG
is worried that Gujarat is helping India become a major economic
power," he told the gathering. Modi also drew parallels to the
USG action and the invasion of Iraq, saying "the US has a record
for building a case for some years against a country and then
attacking it." BJP chief Advani said the affair would be a
major setback for Indo-US relations. He also said that the BJP
would be organizing similar rallies in other states.

Modi Summons U.S. Reporter to his Office
--------------


4. (C) Anand Giridharadas, Mumbai-based stringer for the
International Herald Tribune and the New York Times, told
Pol/Econ Chief that he had interviewed Modi shortly after the
news broke. Giridharadas was in Ahmedabad on March 18 and had
tried, unsuccessfully, for several days to get an interview with
the Chief Minister. After the news broke he was contacted and
invited for a 10 minute interview at Modi's office.
Giridharadas said he was ushered past several rings of heavily
armed guards before coming into personal contact with the Chief
Minister. He said he had the impression that Modi was isolated
and "living in his own world." Modi told him that a conspiracy
of NGOs opposed to his policies had weighed in with the USG to
prevent him from traveling to the U.S. Giridharadas said that
when asked what role the killings of 2002 could have had on the
USG decision, Modi flatly denied that anything had happened that
would have led to the visa denial. Giridharadas said he planned
to report on his brief encounter with the Chief Minister within
the framework of a general article on the issue.

Public Protests Against USG Decision
--------------


5. (SBU) The rally was the most visible of the public protests
against the decision. An estimated 150 persons protested in
front of the Consulate in Mumbai on March 19. The Mumbai police
temporarily detained about 60 persons after attempts were made
to break through barriers erected by the police. There was no
damage to USG property or injury to personnel. In Ahmedabad
about ten protesters tore down a sign in front of the center
that schedules visa interviews with the Mumbai Consulate. In
the Gujarat city of Surat about 150 protestors forced their way
into a Pepsi warehouse and destroyed a large number of bottles.
Our contacts told us, however, that such events were isolated
and not reflective of the general mood. One NGO observer told
us that the decision had no relevance for the lives of most
people in Gujarat. Only if the GOG decided to use the issue to
reheat communal tensions would the average Gujarati begin to
reflect on the issue, he predicted. A businessman in Ahmedabad
told us that most protests had remained isolated events and had
not been front-page news within Gujarat itself.

Reactions: Applause and Heated Criticism
--------------


6. (C) Reactions among our contacts varied from strong
condemnation to full-hearted support for the decision. Not
surprisingly, reps from NGOs and faith-based groups that deal
with human rights and religious freedom issues whole-heartedly
applauded the USG decision. Catholic priest Joseph Appavoo from
the Khaira Social Service Society, a Gujarat faith-based NGO
focused on rural development, told us that the action sent a
clear signal to India that the international community had not
forgotten the 2002 bloodshed in Gujarat. Echoing comments made
by other NGO reps, Appavoo said it would now be far more
difficult for the GOG, or others in Gujarat, to hope that the
issue would go away.


7. (C) Spokesmen from political parties in western India were
generally critical of the decision in their public statements.
In private discussions with the Consulate, however, many critics
of Modi within the BJP and in the opposition complimented the
USG for what they believed was a principled decision. The
Congress party, in opposition in Gujarat, officially criticized
the decision at both the national level and in Gujarat. Congress
national spokesperson Anand Sharma told the media: "We have not
changed our opinion of Mr. Modi's politics, which we've
enunciated often enough. However, we take strong exception to
the US denying diplomatic visa to a duly elected state chief
minister." Arjun Modhwadia, leader of the opposition Congress
faction in the Gujarat parliament, echoed his party spokesman's
statement, saying that the Gujarat Congress opposed the
decision. However, Gujarat Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil
told us that the party was happy to see Modi get such a public
rebuke. "But my state unit has publicly had to toe the national
party line," he told us. A prominent member of the Shiv Sena
party who had been marginalized in recent months spoke briefly
at the BJP-supported rally held on March 20, yet the party has
not issued an official statement on the decision.

Business Leaders Generally Critical
--------------


8. (SBU) Business leaders in Gujarat were generally critical of
the decision. Govind Baldva, manager of a textile company and
also chairman of the Gujarat chapter of the Indo American
Chamber of Commerce, said that chamber members felt that the USG
had taken an unwise decision. The Gujarat business community
was hoping to forget the events of 2002 and instead concentrate
on improving bilateral economic ties. The visa decision had
demonstrated that the riots and their aftermath were an issue
that simply would not go away, Baldva said.


9. (SBU) Rajan Vasa, Chairman of Contech BPO Services Pvt. Ltd.,
told EconOff that he was concerned with possible political
fall-out and the perception of the US as "arrogant and
autocratic" in its decision-making. "The US comes to decisions
and never has to justify any of them." He reported that this is
the "wide-spread feeling of my friends and business partners"
and that the "US needs to justify its reasoning in revoking
Modi's visa." Amol Sheth, Managing Director of Anil Products
Ltd., stated that he had spent the weekend talking with fellow
businessmen and "70 percent believed that the US had an
obligation to grant Modi a visa" because he is an elected
official. Sheth stated that most businessmen felt that the US
should have been more sensitive about this issue. Sheth
predicted "maybe 10 days of protest" against American companies.



10. (SBU) Our business contacts did not expect the decision to
have a lasting negative impact on business and economic
relations between the U.S. and Gujarat. Contech's Vasa stated
that the "ground reality" is no different than before the visa
revocation occurred. "Politically, things may be going on, but
business is fine." He stated categorically that no one will
"re-think doing business with the US." He did say, however,
that if the USG does not reconsider its decision about 5-10
percent of businesses could face problems. The impact would be
seen in partnerships and joint ventures with companies that wish
to sell US products as there may be a move to boycott these
products. He cited the protests against Coke and Pepsi over the
weekend as an example (he also noted, however, that these
protests were fairly small). Although Vasa had many US
customers, he did not believe the decision would impact his
business.

Consensus: Modi Will Reap Short-Term Political Benefits
-------------- --------------


11. (C) No one we spoke to, including Modi's opponents
themselves, felt that the denial would weaken the Chief Minister
in the short term. Our contacts from across the political
spectrum were united in the conviction that the Chief Minister
would use the USG decision to his own advantage. If the USG was
hoping to weaken Modi, we often heard, then the visa revocation
was the wrong strategy. Pro-Modi BJP activist Paresh Patel told
us: "The action by USG would only strengthen our CM, because
now this has become an issue of Gujarat pride." Gujarat
Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil said Modi was cunning
politician who would capitalize on the incident for his own
benefit. "Anything happens to him, he says it is happening to 50
million Gujaratis. How much political mileage BJP will gain out
of this, is a bit difficult to say right now," he said. Our
contacts said they expect that Modi will use the confirmation of
his position by the national BJP leadership to crack down on the
inner-party opposition that has been steadily growing in recent
months.

Long-Term Impact Not Clear
--------------


12. (C) Comments varied, however, over the long-term
repercussions of the decision on Modi's political fortunes. The
decision did not alter the basic political logic in Gujarat, we
often heard. The national leadership of the BJP has no
alternative to Modi, one argument went. As an autocratic ruler,
Modi insures that no viable alternative to himself can arise.
Congress remains weak, divided, tainted by a reputation of
corruption and without an effective leadership sufficiently
astute to turn the visa issue into a political liability for
Modi.


13. (C) Other contacts, however, felt that the visa denial would
weaken Modi in the medium- to long-term. The USG decision hat
proved that Modi's attempts to ignore and forget the 2002 riots
would not be successful. Modi and the BJP will be compelled to
address the issue of responsibility for the bloodshed, but they
could not do this without pointing figures at themselves. Being
unable to travel to the U.S. is a serious political stain on the
vest of any member of the Indian elite, we heard, and the USG
move makes Modi even more of an outcast on the national
political stage. Several contacts said the effect of the USG
decision would be intensified if other western governments
follow the USG initiative and ban Mod from their countries. The
combined effect of these trends will make Modi more of a
liability to the BJP leadership and weaken the Chief Minister's
position as a result, we heard.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) We expect the protests to die down in the coming days.
Our discussions showed that it is too early to judge the
long-term effect of the USG decision on Modi's political future.
We agree with the assessment that the USG decision will
strengthen the position of the Chief Minister in the short term.
Even before the decision had been announced the growing
opposition to Modi (ref B) in Gujarat had not yet become strong
enough to seriously threaten the Chief Minister. Modi will be
astute enough to use the USG decision as a tool against his
opponents. In the short run, we also expect that the decision
will impair our contact work with the GOG and with the BJP in
Gujarat. As mentioned in ref A, however, we do not expect
negative long-term consequences at the national political level.



15. (C) We do not expect the decision to seriously weaken
bi-lateral economic and business relations. We share the
assessment that Gujarati businessmen are far too pragmatic to
allow political events to get in the way of their commercial
relations. At the same time, the negative rhetoric, the attacks
on symbols of U.S. presence in Gujarat and the image of a Chief
Minister as an international outcast may dampen U.S. investors'
willingness to invest in Gujarat. We expect, however, that the
GOG will likely increase its already significant efforts to
re-brand Gujarat as a market-oriented and business-friendly
state.


16. (C) Despite their optimism that the USG decision will
invigorate their efforts to bring those responsible for the 2002
riots to justice, some NGOs working on human rights and
religious freedom issues may face difficult times ahead. It is
not unlikely that a GOG that holds them at least partially
responsible for the USG decision will find subtle ways to hinder
their work. End comment.



SIMMONS