GUJARAT BJP PARLIAMENTARIANS OPENLY CHALLENGE CM MODI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000756

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ECON PHUM IN GOI
SUBJECT: GUJARAT BJP PARLIAMENTARIANS OPENLY CHALLENGE CM MODI

Summary
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1. (SBU) Some of our contacts in Gujarat tell us that BJP Chief
Minister (CM) Narendra Modi is facing the most serious challenge
to his power yet, as a growing number of BJP Members of the
Legislative Assembly (MLAs) are openly speaking out against him.
The MLAs are criticizing what they consider to be Modi's
autocratic leadership style that strips the cabinet and
legislative assembly of their respective powers and
responsibilities. A group comprising over half of the BJP MLAs
in the state parliament has already aired its complaints with
BJP national leader L.K. Advani, who admonished the group for
airing its complaints so openly, but agreed to hear them out
after the end of the Gujarat parliament's current session on
March 17. Our contacts confirm that Modi is becoming
increasingly unpopular in Gujarat, where he is perceived to be
arrogant and increasingly out of touch with political realities.
Some Gujaratis also criticize Modi for failing to repair the
negative image that continues to linger over the state as a
result of the 2002 riots. Most, however, are not willing to
write Modi off, as the central leadership will likely continue
to back the Chief Minister if only because it has no viable
alternative at the moment. End Summary.

Over Half of BJP Faction Speaks Out Openly Against Modi
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2. (U) On March 9, about 65 out of the 127 elected members of
Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Gujarat Parliament
met at the home of former Chief Minister and long-time Modi
rival Keshubhai Patel in the state capital Gandhinagar. The
gathering was intended to signal the party's central leadership
that the state legislators would revolt unless CM Modi was
removed from office. Later that same day, Patel left for Delhi
to argue his case in front of party chief L. K. Advani. Patel
reportedly promised his supporters, "This time, I am not going
to return empty-handed." Former union textile minister Kanshiram
Rana accompanied him.


3. (U) On March 10, Advani publicly reprimanded Patel and Rana
for airing party differences, telling a BJP parliamentary board
meeting, "A fight within the family should remain inside the
four walls. It should not be taken to the media." However,
Advani indicated that he would hear the legislators' grievances
after the Gujarat parliament session concludes on March 17.

Protest Targets Modi's Leadership Style, Power Grab
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4. (SBU) The legislators are protesting what they believe is
Modi's heavy-handed and autocratic rule in Gujarat.
Parliamentarians resent the centralization of power in the Chief
Minister's Office (CMO),which they say increasingly denies the
state parliament a meaningful role in the rule of the state.
Even state ministers are reputed to feel powerless, as they
believe that the CMO has usurped much of their authority. Many
MLAs complain that Modi uses intimidation and fear to keep tabs
on his own party members. In March, for example, rumors
surfaced that the CMO was tapping the phones of BJP MLAs.

Sources: Opposition Far Larger Than Appears
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5. (SBU) According to BJP activist Tejas Patel (protect),the
March 9 demonstration did not reflect the full scope of
opposition to Modi. Patel estimated that the revolt encompasses
more than 90 of the BJP's 127 legislators. Patel expected them
to all come forward, once Advani starts polling legislators for
their opinion. Anoosh Malekar, an Ahmedabad-based journalist
who writes for "The Week," told us that the uprising was the
most serious challenge that Modi has faced as Chief Minister.
Malekar said he spent the day of March 9 with the 60-odd MLAs
that had met at Patel's house. Malekar predicted that over 100
BJP MLAs would like to see Modi go. However, many were still
sitting on the fence and would not openly speak out against Modi
unless they saw that the political momentum was clearly moving
towards Modi's removal. The true extent of the opposition to
Modi would become visible if BJP leader Advani were to signal
that he was prepared to drop Modi. "His own faction may not like
him (Modi)," Malekar said, "but this is India so ultimately the
party high command will decide what happens to him."


6. (SBU) Malekar said Modi's leadership style was becoming
unbearable to those around him. Modi reportedly humiliated and
degraded those around him, including cabinet ministers. Modi
was distrustful of both ministers and parliamentarians, "because
they could become a threat to him." He had therefore
concentrated power and decision making within the Chief
Minister's Office and the state civil service. Malekar
predicted that corruption allegations against Modi, recently
made by individual MLAs, were unlikely to bring down the CM. He
contended that many MLAs formerly supported Modi, but now are
opposed, as his concentration of power has robbed them of the
ability to hand out patronage and enrich themselves.

Advani's Continued Support for Modi
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7. (SBU) Malekar predicted that Advani would probably continue
to stand behind Modi, if only because the BJP had no alternative
in Gujarat. In his determination to solidify his power, Modi
had destroyed the power base of his potential rivals. The BJP
leadership would not want to risk fresh elections, Malekar said,
as the popular mood in Gujarat had turned against Modi, and the
UPA could come to power. Modi's leadership style and perceived
arrogance had turned off the majority of voters. In addition,
voters continued to associate Modi with the 2002 riots and held
him responsible for the negative image that those events
continued to cast over the state. Press reports of mobile phone
protocols and statements by police officials, both of which
implicate the state's BJP-leadership in the 2002 riots, have
also harmed Modi. The GOG's attempts to re-brand Gujarat as an
excellent place to do business (septel) have yet to help improve
the state's image, Malekar said.


8. (SBU) Ahmedabad businessman and former BJP MLA Jai Narayan
Vyas agreed that Modi's position was now the weakest that it had
ever been. Vyas also said that the BJP would lose new
elections. He predicted that Modi was becoming untenable for
the BJP and would likely be removed from office within the next
six months. Modi's popularity had plummeted since the elections
of 2002 that had confirmed his power, Vyas said. The Chief
Minister was now perceived to be self-centered, arrogant and
isolating himself from political realities. Vyas acknowledged
that Advani continued to support Modi, but added that Advani's
backing could disappear if the revolt in Gujarat became
sufficiently widespread.


9. (SBU) Both Malekar and Vyas agreed that finding an
alternative to Modi would be the biggest challenge facing the
BJP leadership. Vyas said there was no viable candidate in
Gujarat, since "nobody can emerge as long as a dictator is in
power." He criticized the Congress party for failing to
present a viable alternative to Modi and the BJP. Malekar
agreed that Congress had yet to capitalize on Modi's growing
unpopularity. The party's leadership in Gujarat was weak and
not focused.


10. (SBU) Well-connected journalist and former "India Today"
editor Zafar Agha told Delhi Poloff on March 15 that Congress
had determined the BJP government in Gujarat to be very weak and
was encouraging the revolt in hopes of installing a UPA
government there. Although recent events in Jharkhand, Bihar,
and Goa had put Congress on the defensive, he noted, a Congress
victory in Gujarat would dent growing BJP momentum and put the
party on notice that it had its own vulnerabilities. Agha
predicted that Advani would not risk his Hindutva support base
by withdrawing support from Modi.

Comment
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11. (SBU) Although the 2002 Gujarat riots continue to stain
Modi's image both within the state and elsewhere, the real
challenge to his power has its roots in his authoritarian
leadership style. Criticism of Modi from within his own party
is nothing new. It has accompanied him since October 2001, when
he became Gujarat chief minister for the first time. Vyas's
prediction that Modi would be out of power within 6 months is a
minority opinion in Gujarat. Despite the seriousness of the
current uprising, most of our contacts in Gujarat were not
willing to write off the Chief Minister just yet, if only
because the BJP has no serious option at the moment. Modi's
leadership tactics have ensured that the party has no candidate
from within its ranks that could succeed the unpopular chief
minister, and the party is in no mood to support an outsider.
The BJP also cannot risk new elections, as that could hand
Gujarat to the UPA. Thus a likely scenario is that Advani will
continue to back Modi, but admonish him to change some of his
tactics. This could include a less arrogant leadership style
and an evolution of power and patronage opportunities to Modi's
cabinet and the BJP fraction within the parliament. End comment.

SIMMONS