CONGRESS REAINS POWER IN GOA AFTER CONSTITUTIONALLY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 2 MUMBAI 000370

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REAINS POWER IN GOA AFTER CONSTITUTIONALLY
QUESTIOABLE MANEUVERING ON ALL SIDES


Summary and Coment
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1. (SBU) A Congressled coalition assumed power in the small
Indian sate of Goa on February 2 after some constitutionally
questionable maneuvering by politicians from both Congress and
the BJP. Goa Governor S.C. Jamir asked Goa's Congress leader
Pratapsinh Rane to form a new state government after Jamir
sacked Chief Minister and BJP politician Manohar Parrikar. When
taking his action, Jamir acted on Congress's complaint that it
had been cheated in a vote of confidence in the state's
Legislative Assembly (LA) earlier that day. The BJP's Parrikar
had won that vote after his allies in the LA employed some
heavy-handed tactics that prevented Congress parliamentarians
from voting in full force. Commentators have questioned the
legitimacy of both Governor Jamir's and the BJP politicians'
actions of February 2, and it remains to be seen whether the new
Congress government can withstand the legal and political
challenges that it will undoubtedly face in the coming weeks.
The week's events may mark the end of the period of relative
stability that characterized Goa's politics under the BJP's
Parrikar in the past two and a half years, and herald in a
return of the divisive politics that gave Goa ten chief
ministers in the nine years prior to Parrikar's ascension to
power. End Summary.

Goa's Political Crisis: Background
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2.(U) The political crisis in India's smallest state began on
January 27, when Chief Minister (CM) Manohar Parrikar sacked
Planning Minister Babush Monserette. BJP politician Parrikar,
CM in Goa for the past two and a half years, fired Monserette
ostensibly over corruption allegations. Other observers claim,
however, that the CM preemptively removed Monserette after
suspecting that Monserette was preparing to defect to the
opposition Congress camp. Congress had purportedly offered
Monserette the CM job if he agreed to resign and force new
elections that Congress was confident of winning.

New Law Tested for First Time in Goa's Crisis
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3. (U) Three of Monserette's supporters in the Legislative
Assembly (LA) resigned out of protest. With the four
resignations (Monserette was also a member of the LA),the size
of the Goa parliament dropped from 40 to 36 seats due to a new
national law passed in 2004. The law, being tested in practice
for the first time, stipulates that individual members of the
legislative assembly (MLAs) must also leave the parliament if
they desert their faction. They cannot simply join another
faction. The law was designed to prevent individual defections
from causing a change in governments. Still, Monserette's three
supporters left in the hope that their departure would disrupt
the BJP majority and bring about new elections.

One-man Parliamentary Factions Immune from New Law?
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4. (U) In addition to the four BJP resignations, two other MLAs
left the BJP camp. However, both did not leave the parliament,
as they each represented a one-person faction. One of the two,
independent MLA Philipe Neri Rodriguez, was to play a key role
in the subsequent events. Both announced that they would
henceforth ally themselves with Congress. Their move was
apparently covered by the new law because in each case an entire
"faction" was leaving the government and changing sides. As a
result of these musical chairs, the BJP camp wound up with 17
MLAs as opposed to 18 supporting Congress. (Note: The position
of speaker is not counted in the tallying of the party strengths
since the speaker only votes to break ties. The speaker, Viswas
Satarkar, was also to play a key role as events unfolded).

BJP Tries to Hoodwink Congress.....
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5. (U) CM Parrikar decided to call the equivalent of a vote of
confidence for February 2. The BJP was hoping to declare
independent MLA Rodriguez' crossover invalid, leaving the BJP
and Congress alliances with 17 MLAs each. In the event of a
draw vote, speaker Satarkar, a close ally of the CM, would cast
the deciding vote in the BJP government's favor. Before the
vote, the BJP tried to disqualify Rodriguez on the grounds that
he was still a card-carrying BJP member, although he won his
assembly seat as an independent candidate. Assembly speaker
Satarkar then tried to use a little known procedure to exclude
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REGAINS POWER IN GOA AFTER CONSTITUTIONALLY
QUESTIONABLE MANEUVERING ON ALL SIDES
Rodriguez from the voting. Fighting ensured as Congress MLAs
came to Rodriguez' defense. After Rodriguez was forcibly
removed and several Congress MLAs left the plenum in the hope of
defending him, speaker Satarkar quickly called a vote that led
to an 18-6 victory for incumbent CM Parrikar.

...But Fails After Governor Intervenes
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6. (U) Congress MLAs quickly turned to Governor S.C. Jamir.
Jamir, arguing that the Chief Minister and the speaker had
misused their authority when conducting the vote, dismissed the
BJP government. He quickly asked Goa Congress leader Pratapsinh
Rane to form a government that was sworn in late on February 2.
Independent candidate Rodriguez, whose support was key to the
Congress victory, was named as Rane's deputy.

Commentators Question Legality of Governor's Actions
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7. (U) Most commentators questioned whether Governor Jamir acted
within his constitutional authority when sacking the BJP
government. Former Attorney General Soli J Sorabjee told the
press that the Governor's move was "patently illegal." If the
governor felt that the BJP's maneuver was illegal, he should
have ordered the CM to prove his majority by a correct vote of
the parliament, Sorabjee said. Former Solicitor General Harish
Salve speculated that the Indian Supreme Court would likely
examine the legality of the Governor's action. The Governor did
have some defenders, however, within the Congress ranks. One
former minister said the Indian Constitution covered the
Governor's action.


8. (U) The BJP has already announced that it will contest the
ousting of its government. BJP leaders, led by former PM
Vajpayee and Parikkar, were to meet with President Kalam on
February 3 to protest Parikkar's dismissal.

Comment
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9. (SBU) The constitutional legitimacy of both Governor Jamir 's
and speaker Satarkar's actions on February 2 appears less than
iron-clad. It remains to be seen whether the new Congress-led
government will withstand the legal and political challenges
that it will no doubt face in the coming weeks. Its fate could
likely remain in doubt even if it can establish its formal
legitimacy, since it has only a one-vote majority in an assembly
where, as the events of the past week have shown, political
opportunism is in no short supply. Should the disruptions of
the past few weeks continue into the medium term, it could mark
a return to the instable politics that characterized Goa's
politics in the past ten years. Parrikar was credited with
bringing in a reign of reasonable stability that also had a
positive impact on the business climate in Goa. Prior to
Parrikar's ascension to power two and a half years ago, the Goan
parliament had elected ten chief ministers in nine years. End
Comment.

SIMMONS