Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MUMBAI2199
2005-11-16 12:54:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Mumbai
Cable title:  

SHIV SENA FACES STIFF CHALLENGE IN NOVEMBER 19 BY-ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL IN 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002199 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: SHIV SENA FACES STIFF CHALLENGE IN NOVEMBER 19 BY-ELECTION

REF: MUMBAI 1528

-------
Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002199

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: SHIV SENA FACES STIFF CHALLENGE IN NOVEMBER 19 BY-ELECTION

REF: MUMBAI 1528

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Maharashtra state parliament by-elections scheduled
for November 19 may represent a defining moment for Bal
Thackeray's Marathi-based Hindu nationalist Shiv Sena movement.
In the Malvan district of southwestern Maharashtra, erstwhile
Shiv Sena leader Narayan Rane is standing for re-election as the
Congress Party candidate against a Shiv Sena nominee after
Rane's acrimonious departure from Shiv Sena last summer. Rane's
exit from Shiv Sena and his subsequent alliance with Congress
and elevation to Revenue Minister in the state government's
ruling coalition signifies the worst political crisis for Shiv
Sena since its founding (reftel). The outcome of the November
19 vote could give Shiv Sena an opportunity to re-organize and
re-establish its position in local politics, or it may stand as
the beginning of an inexorable slide from power for the
organization and its founding family, the Thackerays. End
Summary.

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Former Shiv Sena Chief Minister Seeks Election With Congress
Party
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2. (SBU) Following his bitter break with Shiv Sena ("Army of
Shiva") founder Bal Thackeray last July over the role of
Thackeray's son, Uddhav, in the party leadership, former Shiv
Sena power broker Narayan Rane has joined forces with the
Congress Party in one of the most dramatic moves in Maharashtra
politics in recent years (reftel). Rane, a former Maharashtra
chief minister, resigned his position as Speaker of the
Opposition and his seat in the Maharashtra legislative assembly
after the fallout with Thackeray and his son. Following
negotiations with both the National Congress Party (NCP) and
Congress, Rane subsequently joined the latter and was
immediately given the cabinet-level position of Revenue Minister
in Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh's cabinet. Rane is now
seeking re-election to his own long-held state parliament seat
based in the Malvan district in the western coastal Konkan
region of Maharashtra as the Congress Party's candidate.


3. (SBU) The Malvan district by-election is a hard-fought
affair, with Shiv Sena pulling out all stops to defeat their
former colleague. Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena executive
president, accompanied by a team of Shiv Sena all-stars,

including former chief minister Manohar Joshi, his cousin Raj
Thackeray, and Ramadas Kadam, legislative assembly opposition
leader, are campaigning in Malvan. An ageing Bal Thackeray was
also expected to address Malvan campaign meetings. For its
part, however, Congress has limited its active involvement in
the local campaign - no party leaders have campaigned in Malvan
district, for instance. Not all of its senior leadership seems
ready to accept their longtime foil Rane with open arms as a new
rival for influence within Congress. Congress's ruling
coalition partner, the NCP, while not fielding a candidate of
its own, has offered only a tepid endorsement and "moral"
support for Rane, according to local media reports.


4. (SBU) Rane, however, has long cultivated ties in the Malvan
constituency, and his supporters are working hard to get out his
core voters, many of whom appear ready to vote the man, rather
than the party. He is well-known in the district's villages and
has pulled in the strong support of many long-time Konkan Shiv
Sena supporters. His long history of providing patronage also
provides him with a well of owed favors and well-wishers to draw
on locally.

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Conventional Wisdom: Expect A Rane Win, But Nothing Is Certain
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) The local conventional wisdom among political pundits
holds that Rane will win in his home constituency. Mumbai
Mirror News Editor Vaibhav Purandare, who has written
extensively on Shiv Sena, told Poloff that he expects Rane to
win easily. Rane's ties to the local community, the loyalty of
his supporters, and resentment among some long-time party
members over perceived mistreatment by the Thackerays bodes well
for him. Parshuram Uparkar, Shiv Sena's candidate, is not
considered a strong campaigner. Rane, however, does face
considerable obstacles and some in the media, such as
Maharashtra Times editor Bharat Raut, suspect this election
might be closer than expected. According to Raut, many among
the Malvan district's educated socio-economic elite have long
resented Rane's high-handed, brash political style and might see
this as an opportunity to be rid of him. The Congress Party
candidate has only won once previously in the Malvan district.
According to Raut, the local district, which has seen recent
growth among the Maratha community (Shiv Sena's traditional
power base),might be hesitant to support the Congress Party,
even with Rane as the party's local flag bearer.

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The Stakes High For Both Sides
--------------


6. (SBU) The stakes are high for both Rane and Shiv Sena. For
Rane, a loss means the end of his political career. Congress
and the NCP have signaled that this by-election battle is
primarily a fight between Rane and Shiv Sena and blame for a
loss will be Rane's alone. A win, however, would rejuvenate
Rane's stalled legislative career and could offer him the chance
to stake a claim for the regional Congress leadership within a
year or two.


7. (SBU) For Shiv Sena, this election may represent a defining
moment in its struggle for continued relevancy in Maharashtra
politics. Rane's continued popularity appears to have caught
the Thackerays and Shiv Sena leadership by surprise. Unlike
past leadership defectors, Rane has continued to draw media
attention months after his break from the party and appeared to
have committed supporters still within Shiv Sena's lower ranks.
The resignation of three of Rane's Shiv Sena supporters on
November 4 further embarrassed the organization's leadership.
Rane claimed that at least a dozen more Shiv Sena state
legislators were ready to bolt for the Congress Party. Should
Rane win, Shiv Sena may face a rush of defections immediately
following the election, threatening its position as leader of
the opposition in the short term, and its existence as an
organized political force over the long term. A win, however,
would allow Shiv Sena to reclaim one of its strongholds
(although one built by Rane) in the Konkan and would give it
breathing room to reorganize in advance of next year's district
contests and the 2007 Mumbai municipal elections. Raut termed
the election a real "acid test" for the long term viability of
the party and the Thackeray family's hold on the leadership.


8. (SBU) The other major local political parties also have dogs
in this fight. Should Rane win and produce the defectors he
claims to hold in waiting, the BJP would gain the upper hand
over Shiv Sena as the most important local legislative
opposition party (Shiv Sena currently has 59 seats in the state
assembly, while its ally BJP has 54). Should additional
defectors win later by-elections with Congress, the NCP-Congress
Party ruling coalition balance of power would shift in favor of
Congress (NCP has 71 seats verses 68 for Congress).
Furthermore, a weakened Shiv Sena might signal the decline of
Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) as a regional and national
political force.

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Comment
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9. (SBU) Whatever happens in the by-election, it is clear that
the result will produce repercussions far beyond the Malvan
district and the Maharashtra legislative assembly. A clear Rane
victory and further defections from the Shiv Sena could well
accelerate the demise of a regional party that has put its mark
on Maharashtra politics for the past four decades. Post will
follow-up septel on the challenges facing Shiv Sena as it faces
both a leadership succession and changing electoral demographics
in Maharashtra. End comment.
OWEN