Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MUMBAI2076
2005-10-20 12:15:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Mumbai
Cable title:  

BJP TROUBLES CONTINUE AS IN-FIGHTING ERUPTS OVER LEADERSHIP

Tags:  PGOV ECON PINR PREL IN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002076 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP TROUBLES CONTINUE AS IN-FIGHTING ERUPTS OVER LEADERSHIP
IN MADHYA PRADESH

Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002076

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP TROUBLES CONTINUE AS IN-FIGHTING ERUPTS OVER LEADERSHIP
IN MADHYA PRADESH

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Firebrand politician Uma Bharati, the deposed former
chief minister of Madhya Pradesh (MP),has launched a public
fight to return to power, embarrassing her Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) in the process and dividing its MP members into two
camps. Bharati succeeded in getting the support of a large
number of BJP parliamentarians, and rumors have circulated that
Congress would be willing to support a Bharati-led government if
she and her supporters decided to break away from the BJP. The
national BJP leadership interceded and threatened her supporters
with disciplinary action. It now appears that both sides of the
Bharati debate have decided to table their battle until after
the last round of Bihar elections on November 19. If Bharati's
past behavior gives any indication of her future plans, however,
we can expect her to make herself heard again after the truce
expires and launch yet another attempt to be reinstated as chief
minister in Bhopal. The internal battle over Bharati is yet
another symbol of the fractures within the BJP as it struggles
to re-define its role in Indian politics. End summary.

Background: Firebrand Bharati's Attempts to Regain Power
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Uma Bharati was elected as the first female chief
minister of Madhya Pradesh in December 2003. Bharati is viewed
as a firebrand politician from a so-called backward caste with a
broad grassroots base in a party whose top leadership - with the
notable exception of president LK Advani - are mostly upper
caste Hindus with little individual political base of their own.
In August 2004, facing a sudden arrest warrant on a 10-year old
charge, Bharati stepped down under pressure from the BJP
national leadership. Many of her supporters believed that
Bharati fell victim to a dirty political trick played on her by
second-rung MP BJP leaders who felt threatened by Bharati's
popularity. The current MP chief minister, Babulal Gaur, took
over from Bharati. Within a month, she was acquitted and
demanded reinstatement, but the BJP stood by her hand-selected
successor.


3. (SBU) On the losing end of backroom party machinations,

Bharati began publicly airing her grievances, and ultimately
incurred a party suspension in December 2004 for confronting BJP
leaders on television. As a populist, Bharati continues to
enjoy strong grass-roots support with lower caste groups. In
late summer, the BJP leadership decided to capitalize on her
popularity to support the party's campaign efforts in Bihar,
since Bharati's mass appeal and caste credentials are seen as a
valuable counterweight to rival parties there.

Internal BJP Dispute Erupts over Bharati's Political Future
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) In the past week, however, new public sparring erupted
between the BJP's pro- and anti-Bharati factions, as the first
round of the Bihar elections was set to begin. The media
reported that party president LK Advani discussed - and may have
endorsed - reinstating Bharati as chief minister during an
October 15 meeting of BJP general secretaries. Advani may have
recognized Bharati's continued grass-roots appeal with voters
and many BJP MLAs in the MP state parliament, whereas current CM
Gaur is viewed as less popular and far more subservient to the
Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) and its leader KS Sudarshan,
with whom Advani remains in a tense rivalry.


5. (SBU) Bharati herself has never given up on her attempts to
regain power, and may have demanded the CM job in return for her
support of the BJP in Bihar. In any case the party's
second-rung leadership vigorously opposed Advani's attempt to
placate Bharati. According to one party insider, the
second-rung leadership successfully argued that the party should
not contemplate any leadership changes until the Bihar elections
conclude on November 19. Post sources have told us that the
delay is actually an ploy by Bharati's opponents to sabotage her
attempts to regain power. Moreover, RSS leader Sudarshan, while
not in attendance at the event, reportedly opposed Advani taking
any major decisions, such as replacing chief ministers, two
months prior to his announced resignation as BJP president.


6. (SBU) Perhaps smelling a rat, Bharati bolted from the general
secretaries' meeting and unsuccessfully sought an audience with

SIPDIS
Sudershan. Spurned by the RSS leader, Bharati published a
letter instigating a public signature campaign to remove Chief
Minister Gaur from office. According to news reports, within a
day over 80 BJP parliamentarians had signed on to Bharati's
letter. Bharati reportedly had the support of three state
ministers and several former ministers. Bharati also leaked a
letter she wrote to the RSS chief in which she criticized RSS
leaders for unfairly interfering in MP BJP affairs, echoing
earlier complaints that party president Advani had made
regarding RSS interference in party matters.


7. (SBU) In response, the BJP immediately called another general
secretaries' meeting on October 17 and announced that the party

SIPDIS
had not received a "proposal" for any leadership changes.
Observers clearly understood the statement to mean that the
party is using a matter of procedure to avoid controversy, as
Bharati's letter is not a "proposal" under party rules -- a
technicality that does nothing to conceal the fact that over
half of the party's MP members openly revolted. Afterwards, the
BJP president for MP held individual woodshed meetings with
signatories to explain that the national leadership is in no
mood to hear their demands, and a BJP spokesperson warned that
"disciplinary action [will be] taken against those who have gone
public." The party was also rumored to have yanked Bharati from
campaigning in Bihar, but later said that she would continue to
campaign there as originally planned.

Congress To Support a Breakaway Bharati Government?
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Embassy Delhi reports that there is growing speculation
in the capital that Bharati has opened negotiations with
Congress, which may be prepared to back Bharati if she broke
with her supporters to form a new government in MP. While the
Congress had reportedly indicated it would support her
government from the outside, Delhi's sources believe that
Congress actually hoped to split the BJP in MP, destroying its
credibility there, and then, at an opportune time, pull out and
bring Bharati down. However, in a series of meetings in Bhopal
on October 19 Bharati's supporters decided to bide their time
until after the final round of the Bihar elections on November

19. Staunch Bharati supporters gave clear statements indicating
that they would prefer to fight from within the party, squashing
rumors of an impending breakaway BJP government with outside
Congress support.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The BJP appears to have decided to bury its differences
over Uma Bharati until after the Bihar elections. The party,
already weakened by a variety of internal power struggles and
its future course in serious dispute, cannot afford to implode
in MP during the critical Bihar elections. Bharati seems
determined to regain the CM position in Bhopal, however, and if
her past behavior offers any guidance, we can expect her to make
herself be heard after November 19. Bharati's machinations will
now move from public view to behind closed doors, making it more
difficult to determine whether she has enough backing to compel
the BJP leadership, either under lame-duck Advani or a new
leader, to reinstate her as CM. Despite her grassroots appeal,
Bharati remains a loose cannon, a nuisance and perhaps even a
threat to much of the BJP second-tier leadership. With this
group and the RSS against her, she is fighting an uphill battle.
The party is unlikely to silence her, however, and she will
continue to disrupt the BJP. Uma Bharati's plight is another
visible symbol of the BJP's internal fractures as it attempts to
re-define its place in Indian politics. End comment.

OWEN