Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK923
2005-08-05 13:22:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

The "Best" Harvest Ever

Tags:  EAGR PGOV ECON BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3822
RR RUEHCD RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE
DE RUEHSK #0923/01 2171322
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051322Z AUG 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2773
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000923 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

MOSCOW FOR FAS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR PGOV ECON BO
SUBJECT: The "Best" Harvest Ever

Ref: 04 MINSK 1280

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000923

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

MOSCOW FOR FAS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR PGOV ECON BO
SUBJECT: The "Best" Harvest Ever

Ref: 04 MINSK 1280


1. (SBU) Summary: The 2005 harvest campaign is in full
swing in Belarus and, like in years past, Lukashenko
expects an unattainable yield. During his annual
conference on the "battle for the harvest", Lukashenko
rattled off his demands and listened to exceptional
progress reports from nervous and often frightened
ministers and governors. The GOB's banks have invested
millions of dollars into the agriculture sector,
resulting in large deficits that the government will
most likely write off. Special police units are raiding
farms to catch thieves red-handed while state propaganda
teams glorify the harvest campaign on a daily basis.
Official production results are largely inaccurate, as
water accounts for most of the weight and farmers are
reporting poor crops due to poor weather and leadership
decisions. End Summary.

The Expert On Agriculture
--------------


2. (U) At a July 28 conference on the 2005 harvest
campaign, Lukashenko demanded no less than seven million
tons of grain be harvested to ensure the country's food
and political security ahead of next year's presidential
election. He demanded southern regions complete their
harvest by August 20 and then help the central and
northern regions finish by August 25. Lukashenko
pointed out how the harvest was moving seven to ten days
slower than usual and demanded farmers pick up the pace
by reducing combines' idle times and increasing their
work capacity to 17 - 20 acres per day.


3. (U) Government figures predict farms will produce 7.7
million tons of grain, 3.3 million tons of sugar beet,
66,000 tons of flax fiber, 9.5 million tons of potatoes,
143,000 tons of rapeseed, and 2 million tons of
vegetables. Agriculture Minister Leonid Rusik
anticipated that Belarus would need to import 165,000
tons of wheat to prevent a possible shortage in 2005.
Lukashenko, believing Belarus could produce enough of
its own, sternly informed the ministers that no more
than 110,000 tons would be imported. [Note: The 2004
harvest campaign also witnessed a record 7.7 million-ton
grain harvest. Ironically, the government ended up
importing grain from Russia and Ukraine, accounting for
52 percent of Belarus' total cereal grain needs in

2004.]

Unprecedented Government Support
--------------


4. (SBU) Early in 2005, the GOB ordered banks to provide
USD 280 million in loans for the 2005 sowing and harvest
campaign at a rate below three percent. According to
the Chairman of the National Bank, Petr Prokopovich,
bank loans to agriculture have increased 150 percent
over last year. Sidorsky informed Lukashenko that as of
July 18 the GOB had allocated USD 106 million to state-
controlled farms to offset harvest costs. The total
amount of subsidies and loans given to the agriculture
sector, however, has put the nation's banks into a USD
73 million deficit. [Comment: State-controlled farms
have little incentive to pay loans back and the
government, even though it says otherwise, does not seem
to expect them to.] The government has also allocated
USD 1.7 million to purchase 1 million tons of milling
and feed grain for national use. Sidorsky suggested the
government should allocate funds to commodity processing
plants, such as bakeries and refineries, so that they
too can purchase Belarus' crop.


5. (U) Prokopovich informed Lukashenko that the nation's
banks have "loaned" farms USD 188 million to purchase
agricultural machinery on leasing terms. Over 13,300
combines, plus hundreds of grain dryers, processors,
trucks, tractors, and loaders Q all Belarusian made Q
are in use to gather the "record" harvest. Even the
Ministries of Transport and Defense have donated
vehicles and manpower. As in past years, the GOB
ordered the military to help gather crops. On August 2,
11 platoons and 270 military cargo trucks were sent to
farms throughout Belarus. The Minsk regional
government, in order to garner citizens' support and
elevate their pride, formed propaganda teams - comprised

MINSK 00000923 002 OF 003


of government officials, local public organizations, and
state reporters Q to visit farms and report on their
progress. [Note: Since the harvest began, state papers
have published photos and front-page articles of the
campaign on a daily basis.]

Firm Control On Fuel
--------------


6. (U) Sidorsky estimated the harvest campaign would
require 220,000 tons of diesel fuel and 84,000 tons of
gasoline. Lukashenko replied that he had just issued a
directive to allocate an additional USD 30 million to
provide farms with fuel. However, he warned that those
who misuse or steal the fuel would be severely punished.
Head of the State Control Committee Anatoly Tozik
reported that out of 24 recent farm audits, 23 revealed
abuse or fraud in which managers deliberately
misreported the condition of combines and grain dryers
in order to receive more fuel. On July 19, the Interior
Ministry announced it had formed special police teams to
conduct night raids on collective farms to prevent the
theft of fuel, grain, fertilizers, and agricultural
equipment and to ensure the proper transportation of
grain, pesticides, and spare parts.

Bogus Results?
--------------


7. (U) By August 1, the GOB reported that state farms
had harvested over one million tons of grain from 16
percent of the country's total cultivated area,
resulting in 1.4 tons per acre, up from 1.3 per acre in

2004. On the same date in 2004, Belarus had harvested
only 440,000 tons from six percent of sown ground. Malt
barley production increased 350 percent to 50,000 tons,
and 172,000 tons of rapeseed had been harvested from 62
percent of the total area, resulting in 0.8 tons per
hectare.


8. (SBU) Official government results, however, are
skewed. An agriculture contact told Poloff on July 22
that many farmers expect lower yields than in 2004,
partly due to unusually warm weather in April followed
by a series of frosts lasting until early May. Several
hard rains either damaged or killed entire fields of
crops and/or washed away applied fertilizers, pesticides
and herbicides. Lukashenko's orders to plant early
within a small time frame, regardless of weather
conditions, also played a damaging role. [Note: During
the warm spell in April, Lukashenko impatiently ordered
farms to plant crops and vegetables. The frosts
occurred not long after many fields had germinated.]


9. (SBU) Post expects farms to meet Lukashenko's quota
by August 25, but it is doubtful that the quality will
be substantive. Poloff, who has an agricultural
background, drove through farming country 40 km north of
Minsk and noticed that many of the wheat and rye fields
being cut were still relatively green and needed at
least one more week of warm weather to ripen. In one
field, the kernels were chewy and too wet, making it
difficult to separate them from the chaff. Poloff's
contact explained that moisture accounts for at least
half, if not two-thirds, of the government's reported
weight yields. Once gathered, the loads are weighed and
then put through dryers. Once dried, the weight is
drastically reduced, but not officially reported.
According to the contact, elevators do not dock farms
for unacceptable levels of moisture, foreign objects, or
quality. This is how Belarus can report record
surpluses surpassing other CIS states, while at the same
time it continues to import grain and produce from
Russia and Ukraine.

Voodoo Ag
--------------


10. (SBU) Farming methods in Belarus, at times, cast
doubt on the country's ability to yield quality produce.
For example, poloffs have seen farmers applying
fertilizer, pesticide, and/or herbicide on wheat, rye,
and corn fields in their later stages of maturity,
leaving tire tracks of flattened wheat and/or broken
corn stocks behind. Corn Q which is mainly used for
silage since the growing season is too short to mature Q

MINSK 00000923 003 OF 003


is sometimes not even planted in rows, preventing
machinery from working the fields without major damage.
It is not uncommon to see new Belarusian-made tractors
pulling antiquated implements while a field hand walks
behind, controlling and/or monitoring the process.
These and many other examples would make an American
farmer gasp.

Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) Lukashenko, the former collective farm manager
from Shklov, firmly controls the agriculture sector
while ignoring advice from his specialists. Similar to
his 2004 conference on the harvest campaign (reftel),
Lukashenko shot down suggestions from regional governors
and ministers on what needs to be improved and
personally blamed them for failing to meet his high
expectations. Earlier in the year, Minister of
Agriculture Leonid Rusik pleaded to Lukashenko to
purchase foreign combines, noting the inferiority of
Belarusian makes, but the president refused (septel).
However, one of Lukashenko's high-ranking cronies,
obviously with no agriculture background, suggested
farmers add several tons of fertilizer per acre to get
rid of Belarus' surplus of potash.


12. (SBU) On the president's orders, the GOB has
invested millions into the agriculture sector, but even
with "record" production levels, the industry remains
insolvent. If the government is financing the sowing,
the harvest, and buying the produce, then farms really
do not need to worry about making a profit. Many other
factors account for poor results, such as inefficient
labor and infrastructure, but Lukashenko's heavy-handed
micro-management and blatant stubbornness are not doing
the sector any favors.

KROL