Russia's Missing Ambassador and the Sorry State of

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000904

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/15
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: Russia's Missing Ambassador and the Sorry State of
Union

Refs: (A) Minsk 312, (B) 04 Minsk 985, (C) Minsk 499

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Russia's newly appointed Ambassador to
Belarus, and former Saratov governor, Dmitriy Ayatskov's
arrival to assume his post has been delayed "indefinitely."
Minsk has linked this delay to indelicate remarks Ayatskov
made critical of Lukashenko, although the Russian MFA
claims he remains in Moscow because of the lack of progress
on the Union State. Recent weeks witnessed a flurry of
activity regarding the Union State, culminating in
Lukashenko's surprise visit to Moscow. It appears
Lukashenko's reluctance to accede to Russian demands may be
behind the contretemps. Now, after the recent withdrawal
of the Polish Ambassador, Belarus' relations with both its
eastern and western neighbors remain cloudy. End summary.


Where's that Ambassador, with his "Bizarre Comments"?
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Incoming Russian Ambassador and former Saratov
Governor Dmitriy Ayatskov is missing in action. His
predecessor, Ambassador Blokhin, departed Minsk July 8.
Ayatskov was originally scheduled to arrive in Minsk the
week of July 11, but on July 13 the Russian MFA announced
his arrival had been delayed until sometime "in the near
future." No reason was given for the delay.


3. (SBU) Ayatskov held a press conference in Saratov on
July 19 where he stressed President Putin had given him the
task of accelerating the Russian-Belarusian Union.
Predicting success in unification, he announced, "I would
like and I will surely be the last Ambassador of Russia to
Belarus." Ayatskov added it would be difficult to persuade
Lukashenko to agree to full union, "Although difficult, my
mission is possible... It is very difficult to persuade
Lukashenko to change his mind. He firmly plants his feet.
Of course, he needs to change his perception of Russia and
Belarus as separate countries, and of Putin and Lukashenko
as leaders of separate countries. In no case should he put
on airs. I will not be his errand boy just because he has
worked there for a long time." Ayatskov further predicted
Belarus would adopt the Russian ruble in 2006, a long
delayed initial step to further unification.


4. (C) Official Minsk was not happy with Ayatskov's
remarks. Lukashenko, during his annual three-hour
televised harangue on the harvest, commented, "You must
have heard the speech of the future, or possibly not
future, Russian Ambassador in Belarus Dmitriy Ayatskov and
his bizarre statements. We are studying them." In another
presentation, Lukashenko called the comments "extravagant"
and accused Russia of trying to pressure him before his
July 20 meeting with Putin. Belarus' MFA maintained,
"Russian TV channels highlighted an interview with
Ayatskov, which quite surprised us. His allegations do not
correspond to the warm and friendly way in which relations
between our countries are developing." The MFA's spokesman
added, "I don't remember anyone speaking like this before
the presentation of credentials."


5. (SBU) No one seems to know when Ayatskov will arrive in
Minsk. Various sources told the press he would be arriving
on July 27 by plane. When he failed to appear, the
Belarusian MFA announced he would fly in July 28. Again,
Ayatskov was a no show. Moscow sources then told the press
he would take the night train to Minsk, arriving July 29.
A crowd of journalists went to the train station, but the
conductor told them Ayatskov had purchased a ticket but not
gotten on the train.


6. (SBU) On July 29 the GOR announced Ayatskov's arrival
was being delayed indefinately. When asked by the press if
this delay was related to Ayatskov's comments, Russia's MFA
replied, "His press conference attracted attention and
resonated with the press. However, [the delay] is because
of other issues. It is about the need for additional
deeper consideration of a number of relevant matters
concerning the current and future tasks of building the
union state and integration cooperation between our two
countries." On July 29 the Russian Embassy in Minsk added
the wrinkle that Ayatskov's arrival will depend on the date
the GOB agrees to accept his credentials. However, the
Embassy admitted it is currently not talking with the
Belarusian MFA on setting a date as the Belarusian Foreign
Minister is on vacation until mid-August.

MINSK 00000904 002 OF 003




Is it Linked to No Progress on Union?
--------------


7. (C) Another disagreement on the Union State appears to
be brewing. In recent weeks Russian officials have made
several comments supporting further unification of Belarus
and Russia and questioning Lukashenko's interest in union.
Minsk has replied by giving lip service to union but also
insisting on improbable demands, such as holding public
referendum in both states on a Constitutional Act.


8. (C) For the past few years Russia has been pushing for
Belarus to adopt the Russian ruble, while Minsk has been
throwing out unrealistic preconditions (ref C) and delaying
the process. In April Minsk's National Bank said the
latest target date, January 2006, could not be met. On
July 19 Russia's First Vice Speaker of the Duma, Lyubov
Sliska, replied, "I would very much like to ask a question
of Mr. Lukashenko. Aleksandr Grigoryevich, when will we
have a true Union State? How long will you continue
delaying the adoption of the Russian ruble?"


9. (SBU) On July 20, the day Putin and Lukashenko met
outside Moscow, a Russian MFA spokesman said development of
the Union State is a top priority for Russian-Belarusian
relations. The spokesman listed a number of Union State
agreements Russia expected to be signed soon, and added,
"We may say without exaggeration the relationship between
the two countries has been developing at a growing pace."
Putin told the press July 27, "The formation of a union
with Belarus depends on Belarus alone."


10. (C) Belarus, while giving lip service to greater union,
is openly hesitant (ref B). One common Belarusian delaying
tactic is to insist on full equality between Russia and
Belarus in the union, something Putin has publicly
rejected. On July 2 Lukashenko told a Russian TV
journalist he supports the Union State, "We will surely be
together and now is the moment our generation can do this.
Let us make this move." However, "The parties of this
state alliance should enjoy equal rights... The Russian
political elite should admit it would have to compete with
Belarus' elite, which is smaller, but more honest,
purposeful, and as educated as yours. But I see the
Russian elite are not ready for that... Belarus is
perplexed that Russia violates the clauses of the Union
Treaty... Now they stray from the Union construction plan
and put forward the inadmissible initiative, the
introduction of the common currency. This should be the
ultimate result of union construction."


11. (C) Commenting July 26 as to whether Putin offered him
any personal guarantees in exchange for Belarus joining the
Union State, Lukashenko replied, "This has never been a
matter of discussion and never will be. We will not give
our land to anyone. We do not trade in sovereignty. This
is impossible, I have repeatedly said that." [Note: Last
year Lukashenko said Russia would gain another Chechnya if
it attempted to incorporate Belarus.] Lukashenko supporter
and Secretary of State for the Union State Pavel Borodin
told the press July 18 that Belarus was responsible for no
progress being made on ownership of Union State property.
However, Borodin blamed this on presidential aides working
against Lukashenko's express orders [comment: highly
unlikely in Lukashenko's Belarus].


12. (C) Meanwhile Belarusian officials seem to still be
using the pretext of needing to draft a Constitutional Act
before the Union State can progress. This act, which
Belarus insists would have to pass popular referendums in
both countries, would change the Russian and Belarusian
constitutions to allow their merger. GOB officials,
including Lukashenko, reiterated several times in July that
Russia and Belarus have not yet agreed on a Constitutional
Act, so the Union State will not be possible in the near
future. [Note: Before this flurry of attention in July, we
do not recall the last time GOB officials discussed the
Constitutional Act in such detail.] Lukashenko's
spokesperson and Deputy Head of the Presidential
Administration Natalia Petkevich stated on July 11, "Our
aspiration for union progress is visible in all our
actions. Yet there is no Constitutional Act, so we have no
grounds for speaking about the referendum."


Its all about Union

MINSK 00000904 003 OF 003


--------------


13. (C) Comment: Despite the GOB's talk about welcoming
union, their actions say otherwise. Ayatskov's only
"crime" was in openly stating his job is to promote union,
and in identifying Belarus as the obstructionist party
(although he was indelicate in his phrasing). For this,
Lukashenko and the GOB lashed out at Ayatskov and are
openly hinting he may not be welcome in Minsk. Moscow and
Minsk appear ever more distant in reaching agreement on the
union they both claim to want. Russia may have thought,
with Belarus under siege from the West, that Lukashenko
could be forced to an union agreement on Russia's terms as
Russia remains his only friend in the region. But all's
fair in love and war, and Lukashenko has shown once again
his ability to thwart Russian efforts -- but a major
question remains, how long will Russia's patience last?


14. (C) Comment cont'd: The GOR announced Ayatskov's
arrival would be delayed a full week before he made his
comments on union. The GOR subsequently insisted Ayatskov
is in Moscow discussing how to promote the Union State, a
Russian priority. Lukashenko is already dragging his heels
on adopting the Russian ruble, and appears in no hurry to
surrender his country to Russia (as an equal union with
Russia is highly improbable). As a result, Russia's
Ambassador to Minsk remains in Moscow. Following Poland's
recent withdrawal of its Ambassador from Minsk, Belarus'
two most important neighbors to the east and west are
without ambassadors in Minsk, further clouding Belarus'
international relations under the mercurial Lukashenko.


KROL