Polling Shows Street Name Fury

UNCLAS MINSK 000810

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Polling Shows Street Name Fury

Ref: Minsk 1143


1. Summary: According to the NOVAK opinion polling for
June, 42.3 percent of Belarusians would vote for President
Aleksandr Lukashenko, down 0.1 percent since April. The
opposition candidate posing the greatest threat to
Lukashenko, UCP leader Anatoli Lebedko, would receive 1.0
percent of the vote in a hypothetical election (with an
unlimited pool of candidates; the numbers would be different
in any one-on-one match-up). The majority of the population
favors union with Russia, but the biggest issue for
Belarusians recently has been the renaming of two major
streets in the capital. End Summary.


2. Poloffs met with Andrey Vardomatsky, head of the NOVAK
polling service, on July 12. Vardomatsky presented the
results of his latest poll conducted nationwide between May
24 and June 4. The poll included 1282 respondents.


Lukashenko Maintains the Lead
--------------


3. The past month has shown little change in Lukashenko's
support, with 42.3 percent of Belarusians saying they would
vote for him. However, the percentage of respondents who
would vote against him has dropped from 21.8 in April to
18.0 in early June. This is the lowest his negative rating
has been for at least two and a half years. Trust in the
president has risen from 53.8 percent in April to 56.1
percent in June.


4. Again, no other figure in Belarus would receive more than
one percent of the vote in an open election (NOVAK did not
conduct test ballot pairings). Potential opposition
presidential candidate and UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko leads
the pack with 1.0 percent. Sergei Gaidukevich, leader of
the non-liberal and non-democratic Liberal Democratic Party
would receive 0.7 percent, and 2001 presidential candidate
Vladimir Goncharik of the Belarusian Federation of Trade
Unions, who left the political scene after his 2001 defeat,
would get 0.5 percent. [Note: Even though there is a 3
percent margin of error, Lebedko and Gaidukevich usually top
the list after Lukashenko.]


5. Comment: Almost half of poll respondents consistently
respond it is hard to say for whom they would vote if the
presidential election were to be held soon. In response to
these questions, 45.7 percent (45.5 in April, 47.3 in March,
44.8 in February) could not give an answer of which
candidate they would choose. This points to a large mass of
people who are unhappy with Lukashenko, but do not see any
alternatives.


Life's a Bit Better
--------------


6. Those who view the current economic situation as fair
have increased from 52.5 percent to 56.0 percent, while
those who view it as bad have dropped by 3.9 percent to 19.4
percent. 15.3 percent believe that the economic situation
on the whole has worsened in the last month, and 22.0
percent believe that their personal standard of living has
dropped. The overwhelming majority, however, at 62.9 on the
whole and 66.2 percent personally, see no changes since
April.


Europe or Russia?
--------------


7. Opinions on whether it is better to live in union with
Russia or with the European Union have not changed
significantly over the last month, with 50.5 percent
choosing union with Russia (up from 49.2) and 31.3 percent
choosing union with the EU (down from 32.8). If a vote were
to be held today, 37.5 percent of respondents said they
would vote to join the EU, with 26.5 percent voting against.
Showing no significant changes, 52.4 percent said that they
would vote for unification of Belarus and Russia, while 22.0
percent would oppose it.


Apathy Rampant, but Slightly Down
--------------


8. When asked if public demonstrations against price rises
or a fall of living standards would take place in their town
or district, 71.0 percent of respondents viewed this as
unlikely and 67.6 percent said they would not partake in
them. These figures are down marginally from 73.2 percent
and 68.8 percent in April.


Street Name Changes Not Well Received
--------------


9. The biggest current cause of concern for participants in
the poll is the recent presidential decree changing the name
of Masherov Avenue in Minsk to Pobeditelei (Victors) Avenue
and F. Skaryni Avenue to Nezavisimosti (Independence)
Avenue. [Note: Masherov and Skaryni are historical figures
renowned by many Belarusians.] Although 39.8 percent of
those asked had not previously known about the decree, the
majority of poll participants disapproved of the name
changes. Percentages were higher among those who were
already aware of the decree.


10. When asked about their attitude to the renaming of
Skaryni Avenue, Belarusians responded:

% of all % of those knowing

Approve 12.7 16.3
Disapprove 52.9 68.1
Don't Know/Hard to Say 34.5 15.6


11. Results were similar for the renaming of Masherov
Avenue:
% of all % of those knowing

Approve 11.6 14.4
Disapprove 54.9 70.1
Don't Know/Hard to Say 33.5 15.5


12. Despite Lukashenko's assurances that his decree was in
response to repeated requests by veterans, few believe that
is the reason for the renaming:

% of all % of those
knowing
Owing to numerous requests
of veterans and inhabitants
of the capital 13.2 14.8
President's personal initiative 35.5 47.1
Other 4.8 6.3
Don't Know/Hard to Say 46.5 31.8


13. Comment: Lukashenko's renaming of Minsk's two main
streets has been the root of a number of jokes and
derogatory remarks at his expense. This poll shows a
majority of Belarusians, not just in Minsk, oppose the
renaming of these streets, and further place the blame for
the move squarely on Lukashenko. However, aside from quiet
mutterings, this has not turned into an overtly political
issue. There have been a number of public protests against
the renaming, but all were extremely small and largely
consisted of the same usual suspects.

KROL