EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY REPORT - July 13, 2005

UNCLAS MINSK 000794

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY REPORT - July 13, 2005



1. The following are brief items of interest compiled
by Embassy Minsk over the past week.


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Political Developments
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1. No Early Election

On July 8, Deputy Head of the Presidential
Administration Natalia Petkevich dismissed rumors of an
early presidential election. According to Petkevich,
the election date is predetermined in the Constitution
and any rumors of early elections are lies to "give food
to reporters." Petkevich stated that no state
organizations would conduct opinion polls about the
election because sociological services constantly cover
the topic.


2. Delegates Chosen for Presidential Nomination
Congress

By July 11, 1,500 opposition activists in 42 districts
voted for delegates to the National Congress that will
select a single opposition candidate for the 2006
presidential election. Among the 72 delegates chosen,
24 are members of the United Civic Party (UCP),22 of
the Belarusian Popular Front, and six of the Belarusian
Party of Communists.


3. Sivakov Upset

While answering reporters' questions on July 7, the
recently fired former sports minister Yuri Sivakov
claimed he had not made any mistakes during his tenure
as Minister of Sports and Tourism and called his
dismissal a "blow below the belt." Sivakov stated that
he did not see any failures during his service and did
not feel ashamed of how he handled his job. When asked
about his absence during his replacement's introduction
to the staff, Sivakov replied that he "did not want to
attend his own funeral or be an actor and force out
words of gratitude." Sivakov facetiously promised to do
something with his time, like take over an ailing
collective farm or join opposition activist Vladimir
Parfenovich's kayak federation or join the Foreign
Legion, but does not plan to work for the GOB. "I will
decide my own future and will not be used again as I
have been used enough in the past."

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Human Rights
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4. Drugs and Ammunition in Activist's Apartment

On July 13, the Ministry of the Interior (MoI) announced
that it would charge Anatoly Kishkurna, son of the
chairperson of the Minsk branch of the Belarusian
Popular Front Vladimir Kishkurna, with illegal drug and
firearms trade. If convicted, Kishkurna could spend up
to 13 years in prison. The charges follow the MoI Vice
Squad's July 8 search of Kishkurna's apartment, where
they found .0607 grams of heroine and 61 "various" gun
cartridges. In addition, the police found an industrial
printing press, 20 press forms, and over 3,000
unregistered newspapers, opposition leaflets, and
posters. Kishkurna admitted he owned the cartridges,
but claimed he had found them by chance and did not know
that he was committing a crime. Kishkurna pleaded
innocent to the illegal drug charges. Immediately
following the apartment raid, state television reported
the opposition's involvement in the drug trade. The
news program claimed police officers found drugs,
syringes, pistol shells and a sniper rifle in the
apartment as well as underground newspapers and signed
receipts from citizens who had assisted the opposition.
An unnamed police officer opined that the opposition is
now linking up with criminals and wondered who the
opposition activist and/or his son intended to shoot.


5. Opposition Delegates Detained

Police briefly detained opposition activists on July 10
during a meeting to select delegates to the National
Congress. Police arrested and later released the leader
of the UCP Anatoli Lebedko prior to the event for
violating passport rules in a border area and charged
ten others with the same violation after the meeting.
The meeting was moved to a private residence after the
scheduled location, the Brest House of Culture, was
locked when participants arrived.


6. Skrebets Resumes Hunger Strike

On 7 July, Sergei Skrebets resumed a hunger strike
following a meeting with an investigator from the
Prosecutor General's Office. According to his lawyer,
Mikhail Khomich, Skrebets considers his case politically
motivated and refused to cooperate with the
investigator. He is thereby protracting the inquiry,
which could now last several months. Khomich claimed
Skrebets could be moved from Brest to Minsk in the near
future. In June, Skrebets ended a 40-day hunger strike
that he began following his May arrest for bribery and
theft charges. Skrebets' wife told Ambassador that her
husband is determined to prevail. She had persuaded him
to end his previous hunger strike for health reasons.
She expressed appreciation for the moral support he
receives from the U.S. and other nations who follow his
case.


7. Activist Arrested Twice

Police arrested Zubr member Aleksei Shidlovsky twice on
8 July for distributing copies of the unregistered
opposition bulletin Vybor. After being detained for an
hour at the police station for distributing the
bulletin, Shidlovsky returned to the streets and
distributed more copies. Police arrested him again and
charged him with two counts of distributing unregistered
printed material. If convicted, Shidlovsky could face a
fine of USD 12 to 60.


8. Independent Paper Fined

On July 7, the opposition daily Narodnaya Volya was
fined a total of USD 53,500 in three separate defamation
trials, potentially bankrupting the paper. The first
two lawsuits stem from a February article calling on
Belarusians to demand democratic reforms and European
living standards and an April article that published
10,000 signatures in support of the appeal. Nine people
filed lawsuits claiming that they had not signed the
petition. The third lawsuit was filed by chairman of
the Liberal Democratic Party Sergei Gaidukevich in
response to a March article outlining his involvement
with the Hussein regime and oil. The Committee to
Protect Journalists claimed lawsuits and large fines
have crippled independent media in Belarus.


9. Journalists Fined

Police arrested five journalists at a July 6 protest in
Grodno for displaying a banner saying `Give Glos znad
Niemna back to the Poles'. The banner referred to the
Grodno State Regional Printing Plant's refusal to print
a May issue of Glos znad Niemna and to the publication
of four false issues of the Polish language weekly that
defamed the recently elected Union of Belarusian Poles'
leadership. Authorities did not respond to the UBP and
newspaper's complaints about the illegal use of the Glos
znad Niemna nameplate in the false publications but did
fine the arrested journalists for staging unauthorized
protests and disobeying police orders.


10. NGOs Close

On July 6, human rights defender Yuri Chausov announced
that since January, authorities had closed 38 NGOs in
Belarus, most involved in political or quasi-political
activities. According to Chausov, the president's new
decree on public associations makes it easier for
authorities to close NGOs and more difficult for people
to establish them. By July 12, however, the Ministry of
Justice had registered over 30 new NGOs, such as the
Society of Gardening Amateurs, the Public Association of
Microbiologists, and the National Public Association of
Hairdressers.


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Economics
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11. Single Tax Decrease

On July 11, the Minsk City Council of Peoples' Deputies
adopted a resolution to decrease the single tax on
individual entrepreneurs by 15-20 percent. The tax rate

would depend on the business' location and turnover and
price of goods sold. The tax covers 76 types of
businesses and the resolution is expected to decrease
monthly city budget revenues by USD 413,000. A
presidential decree on fixed VAT sums for goods imported
from Russia is expected to increase monthly VAT payments
to the budget, totaling USD 6.5 million.


12. Closer to China

On July 11, Ambassador of Belarus to China Anatoly
Kharlap announced China's plans to loan USD 150 million
to the Belarusian Telecommunication Network (Best) to
buy equipment. Registered in November 2004, Best is 100
percent state-owned and plans to operate nationwide by

2014. China has already agreed to lend Belarus USD 40
million to reconstruct Minsk heat power plant No.2 and
USD 20 million to Borisov Pharmaceutical plant to
develop pill production. Kharlap noted the substantial
increase in trade and investments between Belarus and
China and hopes that the number of Chinese tourists to
Belarus increases and that flights between Minsk and
Peking will resume. The two countries are due to sign a
tourism agreement later this year.


13. Oil Deal with Russia

On 8 July, First Deputy PM Vladimir Semashko announced
Belarus would sign a deal with Russia to import 19.5
million tons of crude oil from Russia in 2006 via
pipelines and rail. Semashko stressed that the two
countries have no differences over the delivery and
processing of the oil.


14. Government to Aid Glassworks

During a July 9 visit to Neman Glass Factory in western
Belarus, President Lukashenko told a crowd of employees
and factory management that the government would help
the failing company. Lukashenko blamed the company's
financial problems on poor management and employee
theft, saying that workers had stolen 30 percent of the
company's output several years in a row (the plant's
management and employees applauded him throughout his
harangue). According to Lukashenko, USD 20 million is
needed to modernize, improve product quality, raise
sales, create new jobs, pay off debts, and reduce
harmful emissions.


15. New VAT Scheme Works

At a July 7 press conference, Tax Minister Alla Deiko
announced that the new VAT scheme with Russia, whereby
taxes on imports and exports is collected in the country
of destination, caused a 40 percent increase in tax
proceeds for Belarus in the first quarter. According to
Deiko, the numbers prove the VAT scheme's effectiveness.
Deiko also informed that the total value of taxes
collected in the first quarter exceeded USD 4 billion.


16. Keep Inflation Rates Low

The Ministry of Statistics and Analysis told reporters
on July 12 that in the first quarter of 2005, the rate
of inflation grew four percent compared to eight percent
in 2004. The average monthly inflation rate in the same
period amounted to 0.7 percent. Consumer prices rose
0.2 percent after climbing 0.6 percent in May. In June,
the consumer price index grew one percent. According to
the Ministry, Belarus' goal is to keep 2005's inflation
between eight and 10 percent, an average of 0.8 percent
per month. The IMF expects Belarus' 2005 inflation rate
to max at 17.4 percent.

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Military
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17. Fighters to Guard Minsk

On July 12, the Defense Ministry announced starting July
15 Belarusian fighters would patrol the skies over
Minsk, by order of President Lukashenko. To improve
their response time, fighters will be rotated from
various bases through the Machulishchi airfield outside
Minsk. The MOD also announced that Belarus and Russia
are monitoring NATO flights over the Baltics. Although
NATO planes fly along the Lithuania-Belarus border, the
Defense Ministry has noted no violations of Belarusian
airspace. However, Belarus and Russia continue to
monitor all jet take-offs and landings in adjacent
countries.

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Education
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18. Institute for Modern Knowledge Forced to Close

On June 30, the Ministry of Education (MoE) informed the
private university Institute for Modern Knowledge that
it would have to close its departments of law and social
technology (which includes legal studies and economic
law) as well as close its affiliated branches in Grodno,
Brest, and Vitebsk. The MoE is closing the three
branches for failing a recent inspection, however, the
rector of the Institute for Modern Knowledge told the
press he is appealing the decision, as in some cases
they meet the same requirements as do local state
schools which are not being closed. He specifically
argued his Grodno branch received the same score in the
inspection as Grodno State University. The 2,130
students at these branches are waiting for a court
decision, while some IMK alumni are collecting funds to
help them pay for more expensive state schools.
[Comment: It is hard to judge if these closures are
another attack against private education. IMK has long
had a reputation as a weak school that would take any
student who could afford to pay. One former faculty
member from IMK told Pol Chief that students who fail
exams could pay to retake them until they passed. IMK
staff refused to meet with Emboffs to discuss their
case.]


19. Technical Cooperation with China

On July 11, Belarusian State University (BGU) signed a
memorandum of understanding with the Science and
Technology Office of the city government of Harbin,
China. First deputy rector of BGU, Sergei Rakhmanov,
opined that close economic ties with China should be
complemented with close scientific and technical
cooperation and cooperation in the area of education.
Rakhmanov claimed that the Chinese government views its
northern provinces as a bridge for cooperation with
Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

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Miscellaneous
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20. Bride Shortage

A July 12 study by the Vitebsk Science and Research
Center predicts that in 2006-2010, in 18 out of 21 of
the region's districts, men aged 19-25 will outnumber
females of the same age by 1 to 0.7. Center director
Raisa Kosterova credited this difference to women being
a more mobile population group that moves to cities to
work or study. For people aged over 40, women outnumber
men due to men's poor health from alcoholism,
smoking, and accidents.


21. Growing Elderly Population

The Ministry of Labor and Social Security recently
announced that by 2025, senior citizens would make up 28
percent of the population. In 1990, there were 5.8
million working people and 100 working-age people earned
a living for every 46 pensioners. Today, there are 4.3
million working people, and 100 workers for every 60
pensioners. The number of prematurely retired people in
Belarus has tripled since 1990, but there is still a
large number of pension-age workers. Currently, 84,000
elderly are in need of social assistance.


22. Mayor Calls for Cleaner Toilets

Minsk Mayor Mikhail Pavlov expressed dismay on 12 July
after visiting 40 public toilets in Minsk. He described
most toilets as unhygienic because they had not
regularly been cleaned with disinfectants. According to
Pavlov, toilets should be contemporary, with modern
sanitary engineering equipment, soap dispensers and
paper towels.


23. Sexual Minorities Online

According to leader of the sexual minorities of Belarus
Eduard Tarlestskiy, his group successfully registered
their web site on June 14 in the .by zone. The group
sent a request to the Ministry of Information and to the
Special Ideological Committee for an advisory opinion
before assigning a web address to the sexual minorities
internet resource. The Ministry denied any relation to
the registration of the web site, claiming that it had
nothing to do with internet resources. The Ideological
Committee, after studying the web site's content,
approved the registration.


24. Radioactive Substance Found

On July 11, the Emergency Management Ministry announced
that two containers of Cobalt-60 were discovered at an
abandoned military facility in Marina Gorka in the Minsk
region. The radiation level around the containers was
90 times higher than normal. Radiation levels at the
facility returned to normal after the Ministry moved the
containers to a disposal facility. Law enforcement
agencies are looking into why the containers were not
removed earlier.


25. Memorials to Holocaust Victims

On July 10, two memorials dedicated to Belarusian Jews
who died in the Holocaust were unveiled in the Minsk
region. The monuments commemorated the 112 Jews
executed in the village of Rakov and 37 killed in
Vishnevo, the birthplace of former PM of Israel Shimon
Peres. Britain's Simon Mark Lazarus Foundation largely
financed the monuments on which plaques were written in
Belarusian, English and Hebrew. Prominent Jewish
leaders were present and Ambassador Krol spoke at the
Vishnevo event (remarks on Embassy website),but no high
level GOB officials were present at any of the
ceremonies.

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Anti-US
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26. Democracy Not Importable

In a July 8 article in the state-controlled daily
Respublika, journalist Nina Sheldysheva accused the US
of imposing color revolutions in Belarus using blackmail
and pressure. Sheldysheva claimed the U.S. is hurrying
to implement revolutionary projects in former USSR
countries because the "mechanism of ORANGE revolutions
is failing." She argued that the USG did not like the
high level of stability in Belarus and pointed out that
Belarus is able to listen to other countries, but
prefers to decide its own destiny. This type of
commentary compliments the barrage of reports on
Belarusian state media critical of the Yushenko
government and its failure to improve the lives of
Ukrainians - a clear message to Belarusians that
revolution brings poverty and incompetence.

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Quote of the Week
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27. On July 13, MP Nikolai Cherginets doubted the
opposition's ability to lead the government:

"At best, we will find ourselves in a state with a
rationing system, for they are good for nothing. None
of the opposition leaders have ever paid taxes, although
they can afford to fly business class and stay at luxury
hotels. They have learned the basic rule: pass yourself
off as a poor man and they will give more. The most
unpleasant thing is that much of the group has started
scaring one another with the Belarusian bugbear."


28. During his July 12 visit to his hometown in Shklov
and Alexandria, Lukashenko blamed the West for Belarus'
drug problems:

"Belarus is a transit country. They [dealers] carry
this crap through our country and make our people
addicted to it. It is the civilized West that makes us
addicted."