Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK1556
2005-12-29 13:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Even Bureaucrats Want Change: Elite Poll Shows

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL BO 
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 291359Z DEC 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3541
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3253
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 3052
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3474
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3129
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1494
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001556 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/15
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Even Bureaucrats Want Change: Elite Poll Shows
Surprises


Classified by Charge Constance Phlipot for Reasons 1.4 (B)
& (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001556

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/15
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Even Bureaucrats Want Change: Elite Poll Shows
Surprises


Classified by Charge Constance Phlipot for Reasons 1.4 (B)
& (D)


1. (C) Summary: Head of the IISEPS polling service Oleg
Manaev (protect) delivered his recent survey results to
Ambassador on December 21. The two groups surveyed -
thirty business leaders and thirty senior government
officials Q responded similarly on most questions about the
upcoming presidential elections, Belarus' relations with
the West, the EU, and Russia, media and the overall
situation in Belarus, but to varying degrees. The results
indicated that although almost all of the participants were
aware that Alexander Milinkevich would run against
Lukashenko in the 2006 presidential elections, they still
expect Lukashenko to win. Both groups would prefer EU
membership over closer relations with Russia, and are
against union with Russia. The business leaders and the
government officials want change and felt that Belarus is
proceeding in the wrong direction, but agreed that it is
unlikely that an "ORANGE revolution" like the one that
happened in Ukraine would occur in Belarus. End Summary.


2. (C) On December 21, head of the IISEPS polling service
Oleg Manaev (protect) gave Ambassador the results of his
November-December survey. IISEPS polled 60 Belarusian
"elites", 30 senior government employees from ministries
and universities and 30 business leaders from the private
sector. Manaev asked questions about the presidential
elections, the European Union, domestic issues, media and
Belarus' relations with Western countries and Russia.
Below are the results.


2006 Presidential Elections
--------------


3. (SBU) Sixty percent of senior government employees and
93 percent of private sector individuals polled do not
expect the 2006 presidential elections to be free or fair.
While almost every participant had heard of 10+ Coalition
candidate Alexander Milinkevich, few government employees
and less than half of those in the private sector expect
voters will support him, and most poll participants still
expect Lukashenko to win the elections.


4. (SBU) "Do you think that the 2006 presidential election

will be free and fair?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 33% 7%
No 60 93

"Did you know that on October 1-2 in Minsk there was a
Congress of Democratic Forces where the former vice-mayor
and civil movement activist A. Milinkevich was chosen as
the single candidate alternative to A. Lukashenko for the
2006 presidential elections?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 93% 100%
No 7 --

"Do you think voters will support A. Milinkevich in the
2006 presidential elections?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 7% 42%
No 60 23

"If the presidential elections were held tomorrow, for whom
do you think the majority of the voters would vote?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------

A. Lukashenko 73% 48%

A. Milinkevich -- 23

A. Kozulin -- 3

A. Lebedko -- 3

Another Candidate 7 3


European Union
--------------


5. (SBU) More than 78 percent of those polled think Belarus
should become a member of the European Union (EU) and more
than two-thirds of those polled would vote for EU
membership for Belarus if there were a referendum tomorrow.
However, only 23 percent of senior government officials
feel that the standard of living for those in new EU member
countries has increased, compared to 71 percent of private
sector elites. Both groups indicated they would like more
information about events in EU member countries.


6. (SBU) "In your opinion, should Belarus become a member
of the European Union?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 77% 81%
No 16 16

"If there was a referendum tomorrow about Belarus entering
the European Union, how would you vote?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
In favor 67% 84%
Against 13 3
I would not vote 3 3

"Do you believe the EU will become a political
counterweight to the US?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 23% 23%
No 33 71

"On May 1, 2004, neighboring countries of Belarus (Poland,
Lithuania and Latvia) became members of the EU. Do you
think that the standard of living for citizens in these
countries became better or worse?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Better 23% 71%
No Change 47 19
Worse 7 3

"Would you like to know more about what goes on in the EU
member countries and more about the activities of European
organizations?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 80% 90%
No 13 10

"Have you heard about the European new neighbor policy of
neighbors, which guides relations between the European
Union and its neighbors (including Belarus)?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 33% 77%
No 67 23


How Do You Relate to the West?
--------------


7. (SBU) Despite the negative reporting about the West in
the Belarusian state media, 97 percent of business leaders
and 83 percent of government elite do not feel that the
West acts with hostility to Belarus. Even though the GOB
has made it more difficult for students to study and work
abroad, 100 percent of private sector employees and 90
percent of state employees consider such opportunities to

be positive.


8. (SBU) "Do you think that the West acts with hostility
towards Belarus and that Belarusians should fear this?

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 7% 3%
No 83 97

"In your opinion, which society is the most just?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
German 60% 42%
American 13 48
Belarusian 13 3
Polish 7 --

"Belarusian citizens have the opportunity to study and
receive training in European schools. What do you think
about that?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
That's good 90% 100%
No opinion 3 --
That's bad 7 --

"Do you have friends, colleagues or partners abroad with
whom you associate?" (You can choose more than one answer.)

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes, in Russia 83% 77%
Yes, in Ukraine 63 74
Yes, in the Baltic states 40 55
Yes, in Poland 40 65
Yes, in various EU countries 40 71
Yes, in the USA 23 58
Yes, in other countries 20 35
No 10 3


Inside Belarus
--------------


9. (SBU) Ninety-seven percent of business leaders and 64
percent of government employees feel that Belarus is
proceeding in the wrong direction. A similar numbers of
participants would like to change the current situation in
Belarus, but less than one-fourth think that an "ORANGE
revolution" will happen in Belarus. One question found a
majority of both groups approved of international calls for
Belarus to become more democratic.



10. (SBU) "Overall, is the situation in Belarus proceeding
in the right or wrong direction?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Wrong direction 64% 97%
Right direction 33 --

"Which is more important right now Q to maintain the
current situation in the country or to change it?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Change 63% 93%
Maintain 33 7

"In your opinion, is it possible for an "ORANGE revolution"
like the one in Ukraine to happen in Belarus?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 10% 26%
No 77 58

"In your opinion, how will the social-economic situation in
Belarus change in the next few years?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Worsen 30% 45%
No Change 47 29
Improve 23 26


"Not long ago, the EU Council of Ministers and the
Parliamentary Assembly of NATO adopted a resolution calling
on Belarusian authorities to respect democracy and human
rights and promising to support democratic forces in our
country. How do you react to that?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Positively Q 54% 90%
With Indifference 33 10
Negatively 13 --



"Not long ago there was a government decree which
significantly increased GOB control over the conducting of
opinion polls and the publication of the results of opinion
polls in the media. Do you support the introduction of
such control?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
I do not support it: the 77% 100%
study and formation of
opinions should be free
I support it: authorities 23 --
should control the study
and formation of opinions


Media
--------------


11. (SBU) Internet and Western and European media top the
lists for most trusted media sources in both groups of
surveyed participants. Only three percent of business
leaders and 27 percent of senior state officials believe
that the state media accurately portrays the activities of
and life in Western countries. Eighty-one percent of
private sector elite and 67 percent of government elite
indicated they would like to receive more independent
coverage from neighboring countries on what occurs in
Belarus and the West. [Note: Manaev stressed the results
showing more people than expected regularly watch Euronews.
He also said that a recent poll of the Belarusian people
(septel) also showed a surprising number watch Euronews
regularly.]

"Which type of mass media do you trust most of all?" (You
can choose more than one answer.)

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Internet 57% 57%
European and Western media 30 48
Belarusian independent media 13 58
Belarusian state media 23 7
Russian media 20 --


12. (SBU) "In your opinion, does foreign radio accurately
reflect life in Belarus?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 23% 55%
No 17 --

"Would you like to regularly receive independent radio and
television programs from neighboring countries (Poland,
Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia) covering events in Belarus
and abroad?"


Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 67% 81%
No 20 16

"In your opinion, does the Belarusian state media
accurately cover the activities of Western states and life
in Western states?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes 27% 3%
No 66 97

"Would you watch the TV channel "Euronews" in Russian?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Everyday 40% 52%
Several times per week 20 32
Several times per month 17 6
Several times per year 10 --
I don't watch TV 13 10


Union of Belarusian Poles
--------------


13. (SBU) While the private sector leaders overwhelmingly
fault the GOB for the conflict involving the Union of
Belarusian Poles and view it as a means for the GOB to
control the union, the government elite chose more diverse
reasons and sources of the conflict.


14. (SBU) "You certainly heard about the conflict involving
the Union of Belarusian Poles (UBP),which led to a sharp
decline in relations between our country and Poland. In
your opinion, what was the reason for this conflict?" (You
may choose more than one answer.)

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
GOB wishes to keep UBP under 40% 87%
its control
The reason was purely 13 7
financial: the old and new
leadership of the UBP did
not share its money
Interference of Poland and 7 --
other Western countries
into the internal affairs
of Belarus
Ministry of Justice 3 --
determined that the UBP
Congress was not properly
conducted
Other Reasons 3 --

"In your opinion, who is to blame for this conflict?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
GOB 50% 90%
UBP Leadership 33 13
Polish authorities 20 16
European Union -- 13
USA -- 7


Travel Outside of Belarus
--------------


15. (SBU) All of the private sector elite have traveled to
an EU country in the past five years as compared to a
little more than half of the government elite. Germany,
Poland, the Baltic states, and France top the lists for
most traveled to countries for both groups.


16. (SBU) "In the past five years, have you been to an EU
country?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 57% 100%
No 43 --

"If you have been to an EU country in the past five years,
which one did you travel to?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Germany 33% 81%
Poland 23 71
The Baltic states 17 68
France 13 36
Sweden 3 29
Czech Republic 10 19
The Netherlands 3 13
Austria 7 7
Belgium -- 13
Hungary 3 10
Spain -- 10
Greece 7 --
Italy - 7
Luxembourg - 7
Slovakia 7 --
Cyprus -- 3
Denmark -- 3
USA -- 3


Russian-Belarusian Relations
--------------


17. (SBU) Ninety-seven percent of private sector elite and
60 percent of government elite would choose EU membership
over a union with Russia. Most would abstain from voting
or vote against further integration with Russia if
presented with a referendum on the issue. Yet, almost two-
thirds of government leaders envision Belarus being closer
to Russia than to the EU in ten years, whereas the business
leaders predict that the opposite situation will happen.


18. (SBU) "If you could choose between a Union with Russia
or becoming an EU member, which would you choose?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
EU member 60% 97%
Union with Russia 33 3

"It is possible that in the near future there will be
referendum in Belarus and Russia, which will allow for even
more integration between the two governments. How would
you vote?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
In favor 37% 7%
Against 43 61
I would not vote 13 29

"To whom will Belarus be closer in ten years, Russia or the
EU?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
EU 33% 65%
Russia Q 64 32

"In your opinion, do the Russian authorities want Belarus
to enter into the Union and stop being an independent
state?"

Government Private Sector
-------------- --------------
Yes Q 80% 67%
No 7 23


Comment
--------------


19. (C) This poll provides a rare view of the opinions of
Belarus' normally tight-lipped elite. It reveals that the
private sector elite, and even second and third tier
government elite, are surprisingly open to the West and
dissatisfied with Lukashenko's rule. They reject union
with Russia, prefer the EU, are unhappy with the path their
country is taking, and many would even vote for an
opposition presidential candidate. However, they are also
pragmatists, not believing that things will change soon.
Polls like this show there are weaknesses in Lukashenko's
regime that could be exploited, and also explain why
Lukashenko, to keep the people from knowing what they
think, is attempting to control all opinion polling (IISEPS
itself was closed in April and now is registered in Vilnius
and operates underground in Belarus).

PHLIPOT