Presidential Hopefuls Begin Signature Collection

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001555

SIPDIS


SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Presidential Hopefuls Begin Signature Collection
Campaign

Ref: A) Minsk 1535 B) Minsk 1227

Classified by Charge d'Affaires Constance Phlipot for Reasons
1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The Central Electoral Committee (CEC) on
December 27 registered all eight candidates for the March
presidential elections and their "groups of support." The
potential candidates include President Lukashenko, pro-
Lukashenko MP Sergey Gaidukevich, 10+ coalition candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich, former MP General Valery Frolov, former
Speaker of Parliament Aleksandr Voitovich, former Belarusian
State University Rector Aleksandr Kozulin, former MP Sergey
Skrebetz, and even self-exiled leader of the Conservative
Christian Party-Belarusian Popular Front Zenyon Poznyak. CEC
officials have told Poloffs the registration of the potential
candidates was merely a procedural matter. The final and most
difficult step to contesting the presidential elections lays
ahead Q collection of 100,000 signatures from voters between
December 29 and January 27. As in 2001, the number of
candidates who collect the necessary signatures, or who make it
through the CEC's arbitrary screening of voter signatures, will
likely be significantly reduced. End Summary.


Hopefuls Clear the First HurdleQ
--------------


2. (SBU) According to the electoral calendar established by the
Central Electoral Committee (CEC),potential candidates needed
to submit their names and the members of their "groups of
support" by December 23 (ref A). The CEC had until December 27
to determine the identity and legal status of the potential
candidates and their support groups. The CEC registered all
eight potential candidates and their support groups:

-- President Lukashenko. His support group includes 6,212
people, which figured as the largest registered support group.
Head of the Presidential Administration Victor Sheyman will
serve as Lukashenko's campaign manager. (Note: According to the
CEC Chairwoman Lydia Yermoshina, Sheyman resigned as PA Head on
December 28. She explained that according to Belarusian law,
Sheyman had to submit his resignation to serve as Lukashenko's
campaign manager. However, neither Sheyman nor the PA has
acknowledged any resignation. Press reports suggest Lukashenko
would name Sheyman as Prime Minister following the elections.)

-- Aleksandr Milinkevich. Milinkevich is the candidate from the
10+ coalition, which is the largest grouping of democratic
political parties and NGOs. Milinkevich's support group
includes 5,136 people, which is the second largest support
group. Ten Plus coalition leader and chairman of the
deregistered Labor Party Aleksandr Buchvostov will serve as
support group coordinator. (Note: Buchvostov will continue to
report to 10+ campaign manager Sergey Kalyakin.)

-- Aleksandr Kozulin. Kozulin is leader of the Belarusian
Social Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP),Belarus' largest social-
democratic party, and former rector of Belarusian State
University. His initiative group includes 3,345 people. BSDP
Deputy Myechislav Grib will serve as Kozulin's campaign manager.

-- Sergey Gaidukevich. MP Gaidukevich is chairman of the pro-
Lukashenko Liberal Democratic Party. His support group includes
3,073 people. Deputy LDP chairman Vladimir Karunas will serve
as Gaidukevich's campaign manager.

-- Zenyon Poznyak. Poznyak is leader of the Conservative
Christian PartyQBelarusian Popular Front (CCP) and founder and
former leader of the separate Belarusian Popular Front (BPF).
His initiative group includes 2,405 people, and CCP Deputy
Sergey Popkov will serve as his campaign manager.

-- Aleksandr Voitovich. Voitovich is a former Speaker of
Parliament and an academic. His support group includes 1,314
volunteers, and European Humanities University Deputy Rector
Valery Dunaev will serve as his campaign manager. (Comment:
Dunaev spends much of his time in Vilnius since EHU was forced
to relocate to the neighboring country when the GOB closed it in
2004.)

-- Valery Frolov. General Frolov is a former MP and current
member of the BSDP. (Note: Kozulin's party briefly considered
removing Frolov from the membership roster, but in the end
decided against it.) Frolov's support group includes 1,152, the
vast majority of which are also found on Voitovich's support
group list. The two have announced their intention to run
together. Igor Azarko will head Frolov's campaign.


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QBut That Was the Easy Part
--------------


3. (SBU) As early as October CEC Chairwoman Lydia Yermoshina
and her deputy Nikolai Lozovik told Poloffs the candidate
registration stage is merely a formality (ref B). Yermoshina
explained that there are only three requirements to be eligible
to run for president: 1) be a Belarusian citizen by birth; 2) be
at least 35 years of age; and 3) have lived in Belarus for a
consecutive period of nine years immediately prior to the
elections. Yermoshina added that the members of the support
groups of each candidate would also face little scrutiny, other
than a cursory check of their identity and legal status.


4. (SBU) There was some uncertainty surrounding the
registration of Poznyak because he failed to meet the third
eligibility requirement, since he has been living in self-
imposed exile in the United States and Poland for the past nine
years. Lozovik told Pol/Econ Chief on December 23 that despite
Poznyak's current whereabouts, the candidate possesses documents
that establish his legal residency in Minsk and he holds
property in Belarus. In a seven to five vote in the CEC,
Poznyak was registered as a candidate. (Note: December 27 press
reports indicate that police conducted a search of the residence
of Poznyak's campaign manager because he allegedly was caught
with a fake USD 100 note. The police have not provided further
information. )


5. (SBU) Yermoshina has said repeatedly that the real criterion
for appearing on the 2006 presidential ballot involves the
collection of 100,000 signatures of voter support. According to
Yermoshina, the 2001 presidential elections highlighted the
degree of difficulty of collecting sufficient signatures. Of
the approximately 20 candidates that the CEC initially
registered in the previous presidential elections, only three
collected enough "authentic" signatures. (Note: In the 2004
parliamentary elections, the CEC disqualified many potential
candidates, alleging their signatures were fraudulent.)


Signature Collection Q Rules of the Game
--------------


6. (U) Beginning December 29, the eight potential candidates
will have 30 days, or until January 27, to collect a minimum of
100,000 signatures. The CEC reserves the right to verify a
sample (usually 20 percent) of the collected signatures. Below
are some of the rules the potential candidates must obey while
collecting signatures, according to Article 61 of the Electoral
Code:

-- Only members of the support groups can collect signatures on
behalf of the potential candidates.

-- Only Belarusian citizens who are at least 18 years of age and
in good legal standing can give their signatures of support.

-- Voters can sign more than one candidate's signature list, but
they are allowed only to sign the signature list of the same
candidate only once.

-- Signature collectors can show voters various campaign
brochures to persuade voters to give their signatures of support
to a particular candidate, but voters are not allowed to keep
the campaign materials. (Note: The CEC has officially warned
Milinkevich of improperly distributing campaign information,
establishing a potential legal basis for disqualifying the
potential candidate.)


Comment
--------------


7. (C) The democratic potential candidates recognize the
Central Electoral Committee has full authority to put an end to
their presidential aspirations during the voter signature
collection and verification stage. Two issues concern most
democratic presidential hopefuls. First, many lack the name
recognition and human and financial resources to collect the
necessary signatures. Second, there were widespread and
credible allegations that the CEC arbitrarily nullified
signatures in previous parliamentary and presidential elections
to prevent certain candidates from appearing on the ballot. Ten
Plus coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich and his campaign
team have told us on several occasions that they aim to exceed
the minimum amount of signatures to increase the likelihood a
large number of voters would participate in street
demonstrations to protest Milinkevich's possible

MINSK 00001555 003 OF 003


disqualification. Post will report septel on the background
and campaign platforms of each of the potential candidates.

Phlipot