DAS Kramer Meets with Civil Society Leaders

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001488

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/15
TAGS: PREL PGOV BO
SUBJECT: DAS Kramer Meets with Civil Society Leaders

Ref: A) Minsk 1437, B) Minsk 1387, C) Minsk 1343, D) Minsk

1473

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On December 6, EUR Deputy Assistant
Secretary David Kramer met with civil society leaders who

SIPDIS
called for increased support to independent media,
including radio broadcasts and, above all, print media.
The amendments to the criminal code (approvedbyboth
hmbers of Prliament on December 2 and 8) were a sign
that Lkashenko is frightened, but would be effective inscaring many potential political activists. They lso
predicted that the GOB would hinder independnt
observations during the presidential election, even with
OSCE presence. End Summary.

Belaus' Situation and Elections
--------------


2. (C) DAS Kramer told civil societyand human rights
leaders that Washington's interst in Belarus continues to
grow and asked what te U.S. could do to help democratize
Belarus. Lumila Gryaznova, leader of the Human Rights
Defendrs Alliance, told Kramer that the situation in
Blarus was not as bad as it looked. Gryaznova note the
recent amendments to the criminal code, whih introduce
prison sentences for giving "false iformation" and
protesting (ref A),was proof thatthe GOB leadership was
genuinely afraid. Howeve, she admitted that the
amendments would limit te opposition's ability to form a
movement beforethe elections. Gryaznova added that
activists mst continue working together using tools it
curretly has available, such as the single candidate.People should not panic or be afraid and aim for cange in
2006, not in 2007 or 2008.


3. C) Kramr asked whether the bill of amendments to the
crminal code would significantly intensify the level f
repression in Belarus or just formalizes the GB's actions
that were already in place. Deputy irector of the NGO
Partnership Irina Bronitskayapointed out that had the new
bill been a law whe she was arrested in October, her ten-
day sentene in jail would have been two years in prison.
Gyaznova did not expect the authorities to use the aw to
its full extent and disagreed with leader f the Women's
Independent Democratic Movement Lumila Petina that the GOB
would use the law to arrest key opposition figures. Deputy
editor of indpendent newspaper Narodnaya Volya (NV)
Svetlana alinkina opined that it would scare people from
articipating in pro-democracy activities.

Forein Radio Broadcasts and Media
--------------


4. (C) Gryaznova claimed that people constantly complain to
her about the lack of independent information and do not
believe what they hear on television. Kalinkina told
Kramer that the independent media was the most important
instrument to initiate change in Belarus. However, it was
suffering after losing contracts with state printing and
distribution companies (Ref B). NV is now printed in
Smolensk, but its distribution with GOB monopoly Belpochta
will end in January, denying 30,000 subscribers their daily
paper. Kalinkina claimed that the independent press was
critical to the election campaign of independent candidates
and, as a last resort, volunteers would have to distribute
the papers.


5. (C) Kramer asked the activists for their assessment of
the effectiveness of foreign radio broadcasting and its
impact in Belarus. Petina opined that FM broadcasts would
be effective, but needed to be implemented quickly so that
people were aware of the station well ahead of the
elections. Radio, however, should not be a substitute for
the written press. Gryaznova agreed and noted that radio
broadcasts should provide not just news, but analysis and
modern music in order to grab the attention of the majority
of Belarusians.


6. (C) Kalinkina disagreed that radio broadcasts would have
a significant effect in Belarus because Minsk, which is the
only place in Belarus where a popular rejection of
Lukashenko's regime would commence, is too far from the
country's borders to pick up the signal. Satellite TV and
radio frequencies would be a better option since the GOB
would have more difficulties scrambling the signal. Kramer
said that satellite TV was unpractical because of the money
and time needed and that the U.S. would like to see

MINSK 00001488 002 OF 003


broadcasts begin by January.


7. (C) Zhanna Litvina, director of the Belarusian
Association of Journalists, opined that activists and their
supporters must change their behavior to adapt to current
conditions in Belarus. The independent press needs as much
legal help as possible to survive and should not try to be
an equal competitor to Belarusian TV or Sovietsky Belarus.
Secondly, the independent press has the needed technology
and know-how to continue its work underground, but would
need material assistance. Noting that the UNDP was ending
its internet support program as of February 1, Litvina
stressed that more funding should be directed to develop
internet news portals and alternative sources of
information. Lastly, all radio broadcasts should be legal
and legally financed. Television is more effective, but it
is impossible in Belarus, so radio broadcasting is the most
viable option.


8. (C) Litvina opined that the Belarusian language should
be used in radio broadcasts. She noted that Belarus was a
separate nation, not a part of Russia, with its own
language that it should not be ashamed of. Gryaznova did
not necessarily disagree, but told Kramer that in order to
grab the majority of Belarusians' attention, radio
broadcasts must speak their common language, Russian. She
noted average citizens turn off the radio or toss aside
newspapers if Belarusian is being used. Radio broadcasts
need to first establish contact with the audience.
Afterwards, Belarusian could slowly be worked into the
programming.

Election Observations
--------------


9. (C) Bronitskaya told Kramer that her organization
planned to observe the elections, but would face
difficulties since Partnership's registration expired. In
2004, Partnership observed the Parliamentary elections, but
now over 50 percent of Partnership's activities have
stopped. After Bronitskaya's and three other Partnership
leaders' arrests in October (ref C),the organization is
primarily concerned with members' safety and how to gather,
share, and report information.


10. (C) Bronitskaya just returned from Moscow where she met
with the OSCE and ODIHR to discuss Belarus' presidential
elections. To date, Belarus' Central Election Committee
(CEC) has not invited OSCE observers to watch the election
process. Bronitskaya is positive that the GOB would
eventually invite the OSCE, only because the government
risks portraying itself badly in front of the world.
However, the head of the CEC indicated that the election-
monitoring mission should not be large so as not to
"interfere" with the work of the election commissions.
Bronitskaya added that under the current election
monitoring regulations, observers are not physically able
to observe much of the election proceedings. According to
Bronitskaya, the OSCE mission in Belarus is slowly changing
its methods after realizing that being politically correct
and trying not to offend the GOB does not work. Of course
election observers from the CIS would be invited and will
do a "pretty" job claiming the elections were legitimate.
Bronitskaya predicted that Belarus would soon adopt
Russia's method of financing pro-government observers to
achieve the desired results.


11. (C) Kramer told Bronitskaya that during his December 6
meeting at the MFA (ref D),he stressed Belarus' obligation
to invite OSCE observers as soon as possible. He noted
that in order to accurately observe the elections, OSCE
observers need to be on the ground and not invited at the
last minute.


12. (C) Litvina opined that all independent civil society
organizations were hostages to the upcoming presidential
election. She warned Kramer that if all financed NGO
projects were focused only on the 2006 elections, then the
democratic movement and international partners would lose
much more afterwards. Civil society groups and their
donors must keep projects going and help Belarusians who
have questions about their future.

Keep Up the Good Work
--------------


13. (C) DAS Kramer told the leaders that he would not be
doing his job if he did not pass on President Bush and
Secretary Rice's commitment to Belarus. He said that their

SIPDIS

MINSK 00001488 003 OF 003


work was critical to Belarus' future and all its citizens
should take pride in what they do. Such leaders as those
of civil society organizations are what keep the world
optimistic that things will change in Belarus.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) The group of women presented DAS Kramer with a
variety of views about the prospects for democratic change
in Belarus, but all expressed optimism that the current
situation would not last forever. Small steps to change
seemed to be the group's approach. In order to see this
democratic change, all stressed that the independent media
needs to be supported and people should not be afraid of
the GOB's draconian measures.

KROL