LUKASHENKO STANDS ON HIS SOAPBOX FOR RUSSIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001464

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO STANDS ON HIS SOAPBOX FOR RUSSIAN
JOURNALISTS

Ref: Minsk 793


1. Summary: President Lukashenko spoke at a November 23
press conference with approximately 100 visiting Russian
reporters from provincial media outlets. With his
characteristically bizarre statements, Lukashenko
criticized the Russians for stalling the creation of the
union state, not helping Belarus join the WTO, and
generally not appreciating Belarus' strategic
importance. He asserted his confidence in winning the
upcoming presidential elections, but vowed to step down
if he lost. He eschewed the need for foreign investment
and called for "labor camps" for negligent parents. The
President also commented on Belarus' neighbors,
business, migration, and other domestic policies. End
Summary.

The Russian-Belarusian Union
--------------


2. Lukashenko opined that the Union State would be built
on principles of openness, volunteering, and equality
and would bring prosperity to both nations. He blamed
Russia for delaying the adoption of the draft
Constitutional Act by making "sudden" changes, causing
the Belarusian side to take more time to review the
document. Lukashenko rejected claims that he was to
blame for Belarus' slow integration with Russia,
claiming that it would be his "political death," as it
was a process that he had started. He accused President
Putin of trying to create a Union built on European
Union principles whereas Lukashenko insists on using the
Soviet Union model. Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus
would not become part of Russia. He denied rumors that
the Russian-Belarusian Union would have a presidential
post and refused to comment further, fearing his remarks
would be "turned against" him.

Mourning the Loss of the USSR
--------------


3. Lukashenko told reporters that Belarus was Russia's
"last western outpost," the land where "not a single
Russian would ever feel bad." He then claimed Belarus
has never let tanks move across its territory to Moscow
and never will. [Comment: Technically true, the German
tanks were stopped just short of Moscow.] He mourned the
breakup of the USSR, calling it a "tragic mistake" that
the West had orchestrated and financed. Lukashenko also
blamed the USSR's collapse on former speaker of the
Belarusian Parliament Stanislav Shushkevich. According
to the President, Shushkevich did not have the right to
sign the 1991 Belovezhskaya Pushcha agreement that
dissolved the USSR since he did not have the Belarusian
parliament's permission. Russia, particularly Mikhail
Gorbachev, was too soft in handling the matter and
should have sent the Alpha commando unit to gather the
signatories, wrap them in barbed wire, and let them
report to President Bush what they were signing.

Criticism of Russia and Others
--------------


4. The President hoped relations with Poland and the
Baltic countries would return to normal in the future.
Belarus' relationship with Ukraine was "good", despite
the GOU's "envy" and "jealousy." According to
Lukashenko, Kiev has always criticized Belarus in order
to emphasize its own achievements.


5. Ukraine and Russia are aware of Belarus' policy and
know that Belarus has never "bowed" its head to anyone
nor danced to another country's beat. Belarus' policy
supports Belarusians' interests. Russia knows that
Belarus is its last line of defense against the West,
but Belarus does not receive its deserved credit and is
often unnecessarily criticized in the Russian press.
Lukashenko pointed out that Belarus may have infringed
on its neighbors' interests when making itself "room"
following the collapse of the USSR, but hoped that
neighboring countries did not take offense.


6. According to Lukashenko, NATO is patrolling the
border and using their radar to scan Belarus and Russia
"all the way to the Kremlin," but Russia does not take
the threat seriously. Russia would rather let its S300
surface-to-air missile systems "rot in a field" than
give them to Belarus for free. Instead, Belarus must
pay for them.


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On Russia and the WTO
--------------


7. Lukashenko accused Russia of abandoning Belarus on
the way to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Russia
at first acted under the slogan "Join WTO Together" and
Belarus followed. Over time, Russia decided it was too
hard to join the WTO together and forsook Belarus and
the other CIS states. Many CIS countries would find it
difficult to join the WTO anyway because of U.S. and EU
politics. However, Lukashenko felt confident that the
CIS states could "make do" without WTO membership and
that Belarus' markets would nevertheless be highly
attractive. According to Lukashenko, the IMF and the
World Bank admitted they could not counter Belarus'
economic model and agreed Belarus was a fast-developing
state.


8. The President opined that Russia would lose more than
it plans to gain if it joined the WTO. Lukashenko
referred to Russia's economic development minister's
assessment that Russia's non-participation in WTO would
result in a USD 700 million to 1.8 billion-loss for
Russia, which, according to Lukashenko, is a small
figure for such a wealthy country. In turn,
participation would cause more problems for Russia, such
as the "suffocation" of the Russian automotive and civil
aviation industries and agriculture.

If He Wins.If He Loses
--------------


9. Lukashenko told reporters that despite the
information war waged by the West, "very large" forces
in the U.S., EU, and UK would de facto recognize him
should he win the 2006 election. According to
Lukashenko, these "forces" oppose pressuring Belarus,
the center of Europe, since such pressure would not do
Europeans any good. The President claimed these forces
were just emerging and hailed such tendencies. According
to Lukashenko, the presidential election in Belarus
would be a test not only for himself, but also for the
GOB and all branches of power.


10. Lukashenko remarked that he would retire from
politics if he lost the elections. He would use his
dual degrees in history and economics, his ten years as
president, and his management experience in agriculture
to find a job. Lukashenko claims it would be better for
him to leave now, with the economy blooming and people
feeling much more prosperous, than ten years ago.
However, he would run for president again because the
country could lose its stability without him.


11. The President told reporters that if he lost the
election, it would be such a serious blow to Russia that
it would take a long time for Russia to "regain
consciousness." Lukashenko claimed he would not rig the
elections, because according to surveys, he already
enjoys a 75 percent approval rating. Even the pollsters
who are "paid by the Americans" give Lukashenko a 57
percent rating. The President predicted the U.S. would
not prevent him from participating in the elections, but
would prevent the world from recognizing him as the
Belarusian leader should he win.

On domestic issues
--------------


12. Lukashenko told the reporters about his idea to
establish labor camps for negligent parents. The purpose
would be to force bad parents to work off the expense of
their children's stay in orphanages and boarding
schools.


13. The President does not plan to change his economic
plan for the next five years. Private business would not
be allowed to invest in Belarus' housing and municipal
economy because it would force citizens to pay five to
ten times more for utilities. Lukashenko then called
foreign investors "cockroaches" that try to crawl into
every hole and crack in Belarus. Only investments
approved by the President are allowed in Belarus. This
helps to eliminate competition for Belarusian producers
and prevents private businesses from taking profits out
of the country. Lukashenko also stated that only he has
the right to allow agricultural lands to be privatized
for non-agricultural purposes and that state and private
property should be under his control.


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14. Lukashenko stated that he attends the Orthodox
Church on Easter and Christmas because Belarusians "want
to see him there." He supports construction of new
Orthodox churches and claimed to support all confessions
as they, likewise, support him. According to Lukashenko,
certain functionaries in the Polish community tried to
instigate an anti-Belarusian conflict but failed. Poles
in Belarus are treated not as a minority (because this
definition offends people) but as full-fledged
Belarusian citizens.


15. The President opined that the Belarus population (10
million) is too small and needs to be 30 million,
although the country can feed 70 million, to properly
manage the land and turn it into "paradise." Lukashenko
invited Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Azeris, and
Muslims to move to Belarus. He also invited all "Jews"
who once lived in Belarus but moved away. They are
welcome back, but only "with money."


16. Lukashenko told reporters that Belarus has 1,200
mass media outlets, of which 380 are supported by the
government. Belarusian authorities do sue the
independent media for slanderous articles, but do
nothing more against them. The mass media is important
for state ideology and, therefore, should not be
privatized.

Comment
--------------


17. Lukashenko has used similar gatherings of friendly,
passive Russian journalists to publicize his views on
life, politics, and the Union state. In July, the
President bashed the opposition and claimed he had no
friends or money in an interview with journalist Oleg
Poptsov (reftel). According to what contacts have told
Poloff, these reporters, all from Russia's remote
regions, receive USD 50 per day per diem, are put up in
nice hotels (including Lukashenko's own resort in the
Belavezhskaya Forest) and wined and dined. As such,
they are likely to report positive on Belarus.

PHLIPOT