Day of Solidarity Numbers Don't Add Up

UNCLAS MINSK 001419

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV BO
SUBJECT: Day of Solidarity Numbers Don't Add Up



1. (SBU) Summary: On November 16, opposition activists
hosted the second "Day of Solidarity" with those who have
been persecuted by the GOB. While the organizers reported
extremely high levels of participation, embassy
observations suggest their numbers were inflated. End
summary.


2. (U) On November 16, the "Free Belarus" Coalition,
including Nikita Sasim, journalist Irina Khalip, and wife
of "disappeared" businessman Irina Krasovsky, organized the
second "Day of Solidarity." This monthly commemoration
event for missing politicians, political prisoners and
their families aims to unite Belarusians with those who
have been persecuted by the GOB. On the 16th of every month
in the lead up to the presidential elections, the
organizers ask Belarusians to turn off their lights at home
from 8 p.m. to 8:15 p.m. and place a lit candle in their
window.

ORGANIZERS REPORTED OVERWHELMING PATICIPATION
--------------


3. (SBU) At an October 27 meeting with Poloff, the
organizers predicted some 500,000 people would participate
in the November 16 event. This was a five-fold increase
from the 100,000 participants the organizers reported for
the first Day of Solidarity on October 16. To publicize
the event, activists placed stickers on buses, drew
graffiti on walls, distributed fliers, sent text messages
via mobile phones, and relied on simple word of mouth.


4. (U) The half a million estimation proved too ambitious;
on November 17, the organizers reported that 300,000 people
participated in the second day of solidarity. They did
estimate, however, that 1.5 million people have learned
about it worldwide. While they claimed the majority of
their support came from the regions in Belarus, organizers
also reported citizens from countries all around the world
participated in the day of solidarity, especially in
Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland and Belgium. Press reports
indicate that youth activists in Kiev lit hundreds of
candles on Independence Square, and then marched to the
Belarusian Embassy to burn more candles and lay flowers.

ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS CONTRADICT REPORTED PARTICIPATION
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) While the reported numbers of participants in the
second day of solidarity were robust, post's observation
suggested a much lower level of participation at least in
the capital city of Minsk. On November 16, Emboffs
wandered around several neighborhoods in Minsk to observe
the second day of solidarity. Of the several thousand
apartments the officers viewed from the street, only three
candle sightings were reported.

COMMENT
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6. (SBU) Either the participation in the regions was much
greater than in Minsk or the numbers the organizers
reported were vastly inflated. While the idea of uniting
people in Belarus and around the world in solidarity with
those who have been persecuted by the GOB is a commendable
form of non-violent protest, it does not appear to have
caught on yet among most Belarusians. But from tiny
acorns...

KROL