INDEPENDENT POLLS FALL UNDER GOB CONTROL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001409

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDING SIGNATURE)


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT POLLS FALL UNDER GOB CONTROL


Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: On November 12, the GOB announced that all
independent polling institutions must receive accreditation by a
special panel of the Belarusian National Academy of Sciences. The
resolution enumerates several requirements the pollsters must meet
in order to receive accreditation, which the BNAS can take away at
any time. Although the GOB insists that BNAS' control over
independent polling institutions will ensure quality, this
regulation is another example of the GOB's efforts to control
access to independent information. End Summary.
We'll Take Over From Here
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2. (U) On November 12, the Belarusian Council of Ministers adopted
a resolution stating any institution wishing to conduct and publish
public opinion polls on issues such as countrywide referendums,
presidential and parliamentary elections, or the political
situation in Belarus must first receive accreditation from a
special panel of the Belarusian National Academy of Sciences
(BNAS). The resolution gives BNAS the authority to monitor the
activities of the polling institutions and to revoke accreditation
at any point if it finds irregularities in activities or if the
released poll contains biases or is unreliable.


3. (U) GOB officials claim this resolution will ensure polling
quality standards, especially in the run-up to the 2006
presidential elections. They reasoned the number of polls will
increase during the election campaigns. In order for polls to
accurately reflect the situation in Belarus, the polling
institutions need a certain level of expertise. In addition,
Central Election Commission Chairwoman Lidiya Yarmoshina praised
the resolution as a method of stamping out surveys aimed at
"manipulating public sentiments."

Requirements for Accreditation
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4. (U) Central Election Committee Secretary Nikolai Lozovik noted
that applicants wishing to conduct polls must meet "quite simple
requirements." For a pollster to be considered for accreditation,
it must employ two polling experts and two labor or civil issues
specialists, all of whom must have at least three years of work
experience and degrees in sociology or political science. The
applicant must apply in writing to the BNAS in advance of
conducting the poll. The application must clearly state the
purpose and timeframe of the poll in addition to who funded and who
requested it. BNAS will make a decision on the application within
fifteen days of receipt. If the results of the poll are to appear
in the press, the polling institution must submit to the BNAS all
information about the poll, including the interviewing methods
used, the list of questions asked, and explanations of the
verification procedures employed. If the published poll contains
any distortion of facts or suggests violations of the law, BNAS can
demand that the institute publish the correct findings within two
weeks. The resolution gives BNAS the authority to revoke
accreditation at any point if it finds irregularities in activities
or if the released poll contains biases or is unreliable.

Independent Pollsters Express Their Concern
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5. (C) On November 18, Poloff met with the director of the NOVAK
Research and Polling Organization, Andrey Vardomatskiy, to discuss
the effects of the regulation on the two main independent polling
institutions in Belarus. Vardomatskiy stated that even if the GOB
enforced the regulation, it would still be ineffective since it is
possible to conduct polls in Belarus from abroad. He also
considered the GOB's regulation to be a clear signal to the rest of
the world that the election will be neither free nor fair.


6. (C) Vardomatskiy, however, did express some concerns about the
potential impact the regulation could have on polling in Belarus
and proposed a method to combat the effect. He suggested having
several international polling institutions apply for accreditation.
Once they receive accreditation, they would employ NOVAK secretly
as a subcontractor. In addition, Vardomartskiy was apprehensive
about the BNAS' ability to demand access to the pollsters'
verification procedures since NOVAK then would not be able to
protect the anonymity of its participants. GOB access to
participants' personal information and responses could lead to
increased hesitancy of people who do not support the state to
participate in polls or could also affect the veracity of
participants' answers.


COMMENT
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7. (C) The GOB issued a similar edict to control polling after the
2001 presidential elections, but never fully implemented it. With
the impending 2006 presidential elections, the GOB is taking more
seriously the manipulation of public opinion and limitations on
information access. This edict will also likely be used to block
exit polling and tracking polling to keep accurate popularity
figures from being made public. The GOB will most likely use its
control over the polling institutions as a means to declare that
the 2006 presidential elections were free and fair; government
control over public opinion reporting is a clear signal that the
authorities have no intention of conducting a free, fair democratic
election.
KROL