Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK1405
2005-11-22 06:32:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Lukashenko Forming an Obedient Electorate Ahead of the

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHCD RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE
DE RUEHSK #1405/01 3260632
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220632Z NOV 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3350
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0760
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001405 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Lukashenko Forming an Obedient Electorate Ahead of the
Presidential Elections

Refs: A) MINSK 1327, B) MINSK 1193, C) MINSK 607, D) MINSK
692

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001405

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Lukashenko Forming an Obedient Electorate Ahead of the
Presidential Elections

Refs: A) MINSK 1327, B) MINSK 1193, C) MINSK 607, D) MINSK
692


1. (SBU) Summary: Since the beginning of September,
Lukashenko has stepped up populist efforts to buy the
people's support for his election. At the same time, he has
intensified his campaign to liquidate opposition forces
within the media, youth, and workforce in order to prevent
what he portrays as efforts to destabilize Belarus. By
strengthening the status of state-controlled organizations
and strangling opposition forces, the President is firming
his grasp on the population ahead of the 2006 election. End
Summary.

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Raising the Standard of Living
--------------

Increasing Money Allowances
--------------


2. (SBU) Lukashenko recently increased financial allowances
and wages for many demographic groups in Belarus. On
October 28, the President issued an edict to raise
disability and survivor benefits by USD 13 to USD 42 per
month in order to protect the "vulnerable" citizens who
cannot work. On August 27, Lukashenko ordered an 11 percent
pension increase to USD 102 per month for all retired
persons, who make up 25 percent of Belarus' population and
are a large voting bloc. On October 19, Lukashenko issued
an edict calling for a 20-percent increase in all types of
student allowances so as to "increase their social
protection" and awarded 1,500 gifted students financial aid
from his "special" president fund. Though the increases are
token and not enough to meet the growing costs of living in
Belarus, the state media portrays the increases as
testaments to Lukashenko's concern for his citizens.

Improving Village and Rural Infrastructure
--------------


3. (U) The President recently stated that his goal was to
provide rural residents jobs and amenities typically found
only in Minsk. At the beginning of 2005, Lukashenko
implemented his five-year, USD 33 billion rural revival
program (septel) that would provide rural residents with
cheap new housing, improved schools, farm modernization, gas
and electricity, roads, and gymnasiums. He also promised
that the average wage would reach USD 250 per month by the

end of 2005. In October, the President ordered a USD 404
million remodeling plan for the Zhlobin (Gomel region)
metallurgical plant (BMZ),the construction of 333
kilometers of gas lines to supply 12,000 homes in the
Chernobyl-affected zone with natural gas, the construction
of a brick plant in Loyev (Gomel region),and he opened gas
lines in Glutsk (Mogilev). Other presidential gifts in 2005
included town face-lifts in Shklov and Alexandria
(Lukashenko's hometowns) and Slutsk (ref A).


4. (SBU) Comment: Rural residents are happy to have
remodeled villages and paved roads, but Post has heard
complaints about shoddy construction work as a result of
cost saving measures and Lukashenko's unrealistic deadlines.
The state press, however, overlooks these setbacks and
continues to portray Lukashenko as a hero for his
generosity. In newspapers it is common to see pictures of
Lukashenko turning on gas valves or opening factories with
titles such as "I Did What I Promised" or "A USD 160 Million
Present." Lukashenko also uses these events to publicly
criticize and humiliate regional officials for not
efficiently implementing his policies. This has allowed him
to maintain the image that only he, and no one else, is
capable of helpin the people. End Comment.

--------------
Stability
--------------

Media
--------------


5. (U) At the Septmber 30 session of the Belarusian
Security Counci, Lukashenko claimed the West was using the

MINSK 00001405 002 OF 003


opposition to spread destructive information about the GOB
to foment religious and ethnic conflicts in society, causing
the people to lose faith in the government. Lukashenko
called the campaign an "information war" and named the
opposition Belarus' domestic enemy.


6. (U) In the course of this "information war", Lukashenko
has stepped up his campaign against the independent press.
In late September, the state-owned publishing companies
annulled their contracts with independent newspaper
Narodnaya Volya (NV) while authorities ordered the paper to
pay a USD 45,000 lawsuit settlement (ref B). In October,
the GOB controlled postal service stopped carrying NV and
nine other independent newspapers on its subscription list,
denying subscribers issues by mail. The courts also ordered
the liquidations of regional newspapers, such as Grodno's
Den and Borisov's Kurier. Legislation and presidential
edicts (i.e., the prohibition of 'National and 'Belarusian'
in an entities title (ref C),slander and defamation of GOB
officials) constantly put newspapers on the brink of closure
via fines and registration denials.


7. (U) With the media firmly under control, Lukashenko is
now trying to bring his propaganda to a larger audience. On
October 26, Lukashenko tasked the GOB to review construction
plans for a 425-meter television tower capable of
broadcasting 50 channels within a 100-km radius. In
addition, he ordered state media officials to conduct
"aggressive" propaganda of Belarus' image abroad via the
state owned satellite channel Belarus-TV.

Youth Control
--------------


8. (SBU) In May the Ministry of Education (MoE) issued a
memorandum ordering university and school administrators to
expel students engaged in political activities (ref D)
because, according to minister Aleksandr Radzkov, politics
have no place in the classroom. This obviously meant
"opposition" politics because on November 16, Radzkov
claimed school and university heads are political figures
who should follow and support the state line and prevent
opposition activists from spreading "disunity" among the
students. Apart from expulsions and firings, Post has heard
reports of authorities threatening student opposition
activists with military service or village "exile" to
Chernobyl-contaminated regions.


9. (U) Students are allowed to be politically active, but
only in the name of the government sponsored Belarusian
Republican Youth Union (BRYU),formerly the Communist Youth
Union (Komsamol). The BRYU has 305,000 members, but at the
BRYU's 39th conference on September 23, President Lukashenko
predicted all students and young adults would soon be
members of the BRYU. He then called for the resignation of
school administrators and teachers who are critical of GOB
efforts to boost BRYU membership. BRYU's large membership
is attributed to the fact that it is easier to gain
admittance to a university or find housing with a BRYU
membership. Membership also gives students discounts on
many services and items from haircuts to movies and, in some
instances, free cars and apartments.


10. (U) As youth opposition groups are being harassed and
unable to grow, the BRYU is monopolizing the influence over
the youth. On October 26, Lukashenko published his protocol
calling for the BRYU to be incorporated into all social,
political, and economic spheres, control all student
movements, to bolster patriotism in the classroom, help with
the state's ideology program, and secure the country against
destabilization efforts. BRYU members are encouraged to
preach their pro-GOB beliefs in the classrooms and are
allowed to hold demonstrations and/or meetings without
government interference.

Labor
--------------


11. (U) The Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus (FTUB) is
Belarus' largest trade union with an inflated membership of
four million. [Comment: The entire Belarusian workforce is
four million, leaving doubt as to whether this is a true
figure.] The FTUB is pro-Lukashenko and, as a reward for

MINSK 00001405 003 OF 003


its support, receives privileges from the President that are
denied to independent trade unions. In July, the President
gave the FTUB the authority to inspect all enterprises,
state owned or private, for compliance with labor
regulations regardless of whether or not the enterprises
have FTUB members. In October, the Ministry of Labor (MoL)
issued a directive allowing the FTUB to check the wage
payment system of enterprises and report their findings to
the MoL.


12. (U) Independent trade unions do not have these
capabilities and are finding it more difficult to defend
their constituents' rights. The contract system continues
to be an efficient tool for the GOB to control the
workforce, allowing employers to dismiss a worker for
his/her beliefs or participation in an independent union.
The threat of job loss is one of the main reasons why
independent union membership is falling. Unlike the FTUB,
union officials are rarely allowed to inspect workplace
sites or disseminate information without facing fines or
arrest. Even rallies and meetings are impossible because
venues refuse to host any independent union event whereas a
new presidential decree allows the FTUB to use state-owned
offices and conference halls free of charge.

Comment
--------------


13. (SBU) Lukashenko's current campaign strategy is to
appease the people with carrots while beating back the
opposition with the many sticks at his disposal and serving
the public with visions of U.S. inspired destabilization.
The elderly and disabled will continue to remain quiet as
long as they continue to receive their meager pensions,
which is better than no pension at all. Students, knowing
that it is next to impossible to find a decent job in
Belarus without a diploma, are not willing to oppose the
President if it means their expulsion. Likewise, workers
are not going to protest their pay and working conditions or
participate in the independent labor movement if it means
job loss. With the use of government-sponsored
organizations to control the media, school system, and
workforce, Lukashenko is hoping to create an ever more
obedient population. But we wander how much of the
resentment he is creating will come back to haunt him and
his cronies in crime.

KROL