Grodno Trip A Success, Attracts Attention

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001352

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: Grodno Trip A Success, Attracts Attention

Ref: A) Minsk 1327, B) Minsk 1003, C) Minsk 1078

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Poloffs visited 10+ opposition candidate
Aleksandr Milinkevich's hometown of Grodno on October 25.
Due to the usual government harassment, the independent
press has become largely internet based and hopes Western
countries will continue with plans to broadcast radio news
to Belarus. Opposition activists, though sharing different
views, claim to be united behind Milinkevich and the
ousting of Lukashenko while the Union of Belarusian Poles
(UBP) continues to struggle against the GOB and its new UBP
leadership. Poloffs, at the request of the local ideology
officer, also spoke with the mayor, who claimed that Grodno
has few problems. End Summary.

Independent Press Goes Electronic
--------------


2. (C) Poloffs arrived in the western city of Grodno on
October 25 and, similar to emboffs' visit to Slutsk (ref
A),were followed by a police vehicle throughout the visit.
Pol Chief first met with representatives of the independent
press. Due to the authorities' strong restrictions and
interference, most of the independent news has become
internet based. Irina Chernyavka of Belgazeta complained
that her news site only reaches a few demographic groups,
primarily students, because the blue-collar workforce and
pensioners usually do not own computers or are unfamiliar
with the internet. The government also owns the
communications monopoly Beltelecom and the BKGB has a
special department that monitors Belarusian cyber space.
Following the closure of a Grodno-based internet site and
the arrest of a local creator of cartoons mocking
Lukashenko (ref B),the local authorities unofficially
introduced a new rule that all people must present their
passports before using computers at internet cafes and
libraries.


3. (C) Not long into the meeting, two men entered the room,
introduced themselves as regional ideology officers and
asked to be present during the meeting. One of the men was
using a video camera. Nikolai Markevich, editor of the
troubled Den' newspaper, kindly told the men it was a
private meeting and that they could wait outside. The
ideology officers promptly left and waited in the hallway.


4. (C) Markevich and his colleagues noted the importance of
radio broadcasts from Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia
because they would be able to reach the villages in the
border area where residents only receive state-media and
are subjected to non-stop propaganda. According to
Chernyavka, most government news is inaccurate because
businesses, universities and other institutions are afraid
to give the GOB accurate information for fear of attracting
unwanted attention. [Comment: Markevich also blamed the
delay in independent press development on cooperation
between Belarus and Russian secret services and the
laziness of American bureaucrats.]

Political Cooperation?
--------------


5. (C) Pol Chief met with members of the local Belarusian
Popular Front (BPF),United Civic Party (UCP),Belarusian
Party of Communists (BPC),and the Belarusian Social
Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP). Even though the various
representatives rarely meet in such a large group, they
claimed to be in contact with each other and united in
support for Milinkevich. Yuri Istomin of the UCP admitted
that UCP members were upset that Lebedko did not win the
single candidate bid, but despite this, his local group is
dedicated to supporting Milinkevich. Vladimir Kisilevich,
whose BSDP party supports Aleksandr Kozulin, disagreed and
considered the Congress of Democratic Forces as only the
first step towards choosing a true single candidate. All
agreed that elections would not be free or fair and,
therefore, they must begin mobilizing citizens for street
actions. Sergei Malchik of the BPF predicts that after the
2006 elections, opposition supporters will face massive job
loss as they did after the 2001 elections. Therefore, if
10,000 people do not protest in Grodno and 100,000 do not
protest in Minsk, the opposition will lose and be forced
underground.

6. (C) The activists disseminate information about
opposition politics and regional problems via Narodnaya
Volya and the Polish-financed newspaper Niva. [Note: On
October 31, Grodno police confiscated from Istomin 3,500
copies of Narodnaya Volya. To date they are still in
police custody.] They were printing bulletins, but the BKGB
confiscated most of their materials. However, they are
currently working on another bulletin issue as well as some
leaflets, hoping to print at least 20,000. Malchik noted
that the Grodno opposition would soon assign each person
his/her duties for the information campaign ahead of the
elections. Istomin noted that the biggest problem would be
reaching rural residents in the villages and on farms.

Poles Still Facing Pressure
--------------


6. (C) Pol Chief had lunch with Union of Belarusian Poles
(UBP) journalists Andrei Pisalnik and Andrei Pochubot.
Pochubot spoke about the GOB's control over the media and
noted its interference in foreign news transmissions. On
October 24, the Polish-based television channel Pulsar was
to air a program on the GOB's treatment of the UBP.
However, as the program was about to begin, the channel
became scrambled. Pochubot called the local private
broadcasting company Garant and was told that the Ministry
of Information had ordered Garant to scramble the
transmission.


7. (C) The two activists told stories of the GOB's campaign
against the UBP. Even though 90 percent of Grodno's Poles
still support the ousted leader Angelica Boris (ref C),the
authorities would not allow her to assume her position as
chair of the UBP. Fearful of any reprisals from Boris
sympathizers, the authorities have placed police officers
around UBP headquarters, the House of Poles. Schools are
teaching less Polish to students and the authorities still
refuse to accept any petitions from the UBP. Pisalnik
thanked the opposition parties for their support, which
showed many non-Polish residents that the authorities were
at fault, not the UBP. Pochubot and Pisalnik themselves
have been in and out of jail and/or heavily fined for their
journalistic and UBP activities. On October 26, a Grodno
court rescinded the travel restriction that the police had
place on Pochubot.

Special Interests
--------------


8. (C) Poloffs met Valentin Oskirko of Malady Front and a
student self-government NGO, Tatiana Konopkina of the
Belarusian School Society, Sergey Antusevich of the AZOT
REP trade union, Vladimir Ushkevich of the Grodno Union of
Farmers, and Vitovt Rudnik of the Third Sector educational
NGO. Rudnik's organization trains journalists, but due to
the lack of independent press, Rudnik is focusing more on
internet journalism. Antusevich spoke of the AZOT factory
ideology officer's cooperation with the BKGB in inspecting
the factory's REP office without prior notification or a
warrant. Ushkevich, who has not felt much government
pressure, continues defending farmers' rights, particularly
making sure government-allocated money actually reaches the
farmers rather than remaining in the pockets of regional
Ministry of Agriculture committee members. Oskirko will
soon finish school after taking a one-year hiatus when he
was expelled for writing an opposition slogan on a wall.
Eventually he was reinstated but he is often threatened
with expulsion.

Impromptu Meeting
--------------


9. (C) Poloffs had not made arrangements to meet with the
local authorities, but the ideology officer approached Pol
Chief in a parking lot and asked why emboffs did not want
to meet with the mayor, who was expecting the diplomats at
his office. In an immediate phone call to the Grodno
administration building, the mayor seemed surprised that
poloffs were in town and did not remember inviting emboffs
to speak with him. However, when Poloffs arrived, the
mayor had free time to speak.


10. (C) The Grodno mayor, Aleksandr Antonenko, and the
chair of the regional Council of Deputies praised their
good relationships with foreign diplomats, including the
Ambassador, and took offense at poloffs unannounced visit.
However, he claimed that emboffs should not feel obligated
to stop by the administration on every visit. Antonenko
noted the small budget as Grodno's primary problem, but
everything else was on the right path. Grodno is second
only to Minsk in home construction and the oblast's
agriculture production provides enough food for the area
and for export. The large companies AZOT and a metallurgy
plant are state-owned, but a foreign company could buy them
easily without any problems. Grodno's education system
includes 46 schools and several large universities; the
most notable, Yakab Kupala, has 20,000 students and a
number of international students from Syria, Palestine, and
Afghanistan. The economy has significantly improved with
wages rising to USD 250 Q 275 and unemployment is at 1.9
percent. The chair of the regional Council of Deputies
boasted that America should be jealous of such figures.


11. (C) Grodno has never had a problem with different
nationalities or religious groups. Commenting on the UBP
situation, the mayor opined that the recent problems with
the Poles have been an inter-organizational conflict that
became political. He claimed that the Grodno authorities
did not want to get involved.

Camera Time
--------------


12. (C) At the end of the meeting, the chair of the Council
of Deputies asked Pol Chief if he would say a few words to
the news crew waiting in the lobby. Pol Chief explained
that the trip was part of the Embassy's diplomatic work to
see the regions and meet with both government and community
leaders. The cameraman asked why poloffs had changed their
mind about meeting the mayor, to which Pol Chief noted free
time in the schedule. After exchanging handshakes with the
mayor, poloffs returned to Minsk with the police following
for an additional ten minutes past the city limits.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) The Grodno activists face the same hardships as do
activists across Belarus, but they showed great optimism
for change. Perhaps it is because a person they know well,
Aleksandr Milinkevich, is now the single opposition
candidate. The local activists and independent reporters
spoke highly of him and were optimistic that he could
become a true contender against Lukashenko. The mayor was
very cordial and happy to meet with emboffs, but it was
surprising that it was possible on short notice. The
subtle insinuations in his rehearsed language about the
conflict with the UBP and the economy in Grodno indicated
that he may see things differently than what he preached to
Pol Chief. On a side note, he admitted that he often read
the independent and hard-to-find Narodnaya Volya. However,
it appears to be a new GOB policy to provide a police
"escort" for emboffs and interfere with their meetings.

KROL