Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK1316
2005-10-28 11:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

MILINKEVICH APPEALS TO US AMBASSADOR FOR

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #1316/01 3011115
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 281115Z OCT 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3239
INFO RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3400
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3183
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1443
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3064
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2966
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0714
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001316 

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH APPEALS TO US AMBASSADOR FOR
ASSISTANCE

Ref: A) Minsk 1205

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001316

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: MILINKEVICH APPEALS TO US AMBASSADOR FOR
ASSISTANCE

Ref: A) Minsk 1205

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On October 26, Aleksandr Milinkevich
discussed with Ambassador his campaign activities following
the October 1-2 democratic congress (ref A). He was
relatively pleased with his efforts to pull together a
unified campaign team, and was cautiously optimistic he and
his team could present a formidable challenge to President
Lukashenko's grip on popular support. However, Milinkevich
admitted the real purpose of his meeting with Ambassador
was to stress the urgent need for quicker, more coordinated
international financial assistance. The presidential
candidate felt embarrassed about having to make a special
appeal to the U.S. Ambassador and stressed his gratitude
for U.S. assistance thus far, but he pointed out the
economic plight of his campaign demanded his immediate
personal involvement. End Summary.


Focus Is Not On Electoral Victory, But Voter Support
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Aleksandr Milinkevich, 10+ coalition presidential
nominee, told Ambassador and Pol/Econ Chief the aim of his
campaign is not to beat President Lukashenko in the 2006
presidential elections. He recognizes the President
probably has already determined the election results.
Milinkevich noted his focus remains almost exclusively on
broadening popular support for democratic change, with the
upcoming elections serving as a catalyzing event for mass
protests. Milinkevich believes the starting point for
building popular support is a unified democratic alliance.


10+ Leaders Offered Key Positions In Milinkevich Campaign
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Milinkevich pointed out that immediately after his
nomination a crisis ensued in the coalition. Sergey
Kalyakin, leader of the pro-democracy Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC) and third-place finisher in the congress,
and Anatoly Lebedko, head of the United Civic Party (UCP)
and runner-up candidate, apparently were disappointed with
the results of the congress. To prevent the disintegration
of the coalition, Milinkevich offered Kalyakin the position

of campaign manager and Lebedko whatever position he wanted
in the campaign (besides campaign manager). Lebedko chose
the position of head of the national committee, which is
the policy group that will devise the coalition's principal
strategy proposals and plans for Belarus as if it were a
shadow government.


4. (C) Milinkevich said that he had hoped to have his
close colleague Victor Karnyeneko as campaign manager but
in the end made a compromise to maintain Kalyakin's
support. Karnyenko is now Kalyakin's deputy on the
campaign team. Milinkevich also agreed to have Belarusian
National Front (BNF) leader Vintsuk Vyachorka, BPC member
Aleksandr Dobrovolsky, and other party leaders serve as key
members in the campaign. (Note: A more detailed report on
the campaign staff and their particular responsibilities
will be sent septel). However, Milinkevich considers his
greatest asset in the regions is the NGO community (from
which he came),not the political parties.


Further Consolidation of Democratic Forces A Difficult Task
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Milinkevich told Ambassador he is making every
effort to unite the democratic forces behind his candidacy,
but thus far the other presidential hopefuls remain
elusive. He said that former Agricultural Minister Vasily
Leonov felt particularly slighted because Lebedko
previously had offered Leonov the position of national
committee head but Lebedko ultimately took the position for
himself. The Milinkevich team will try to persuade Leonov
to take up the post as commander of the "Eastern Front,"
working his contacts in Russia to support the campaign.

Milinkevich was not sure Leonov would accept the position.
He noted former Parliamentary Speaker Aleksandr Voitovich
might work with them, but Voitovich thus far has
conditioned his support on financial compensation.
(Comment: Voitovich suggested to Ambassador on October 12
he is determined to convince Milinkevich to support a
Voitovich candidacy, not the other way around. More
information on this conversation will be sent septel.)


6. (C) Milinkevich acknowledged former Belarusian State
University Rector Anatoly Kozulin has refused to join the
10+ coalition and had indicated he will run on his own.
Milinkevich added that the "Free Belarus" coalition of
Irina Krasovskyaya, Andrey Sannikov, Pavel Demesz and Bruce
Jackson had always been somewhat hostile to the single
candidate process but he has successfully won their support
for his candidacy.


No Question About It - Lukashenko Is A Worthy Opponent
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Milinkevich is under no illusion about President
Lukashenko's power and talent as a politician. The 10+
nominee even noted he will learn a lot from Lukashenko
during the electoral campaign. Milinkevich also recognized
that the economic situation in Belarus is not dire: "most
Belarusians realize they are economically better off than
Ukrainians and Russians." (Note: Post understands that
average salaries in Ukraine and Russia are higher than in
Belarus, but Milinkevich's general argument remains valid.)


But There Is Room For Hope
--------------


8. (C) Milinkevich said he will try to convince voters
that they would be much better off under a different
political and economic system. Moreover, he will argue
that Lukashenko's version of stability is in fact
unsustainable and undesirable. He commented that even a
cemetery is stable; that does not mean you want to live
there. Milinkevich knows many people are not happy with
the climate of fear that Lukashenko has created in society.
He hopes he can project himself as an attractive
alternative to Lukashenko Q a candidate more in keeping
with Belarusian character, which is to be part of the world
and not defiantly challenging it.


9. (C) The 10+ presidential candidate was optimistic that
despite all the financial and human resources Lukashenko
has at his disposal, democratic forces can still make
significant progress in leading Belarus towards democratic
change. Milinkevich stressed that Belarusians were the
chief agents of political change in the country, but they
could not do it alone. He greatly appreciated the U.S.
approach to shine a light on Belarus, suggesting that
international attention has an effect on domestic
developments and should not diminish.


International Travel Will Be Limited To Key Countries
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Milinkevich recognized that he needs to
concentrate on building popular support and therefore spend
most of his time in Belarus. However, he considered trips
to a few key capitals necessary. (Note: Milinkevich noted
his recent trip to Prague was arranged in May, prior to his
10+ nomination. He felt it was necessary to fulfill his
obligation.)


11. (C) The 10+ candidate plans to visit Moscow in
November. His team was trying to set up meetings for him
with senior Russian officials, including with Deputy Prime
Minister Surikov. He also hoped to meet deputies in the
Duma, as well as hold interviews with the Russian press.
Milinkevich aims to convince his Russian audience that he
stands for solid reliable relations with Russia. (Note:
Milinkevich thought Belarusian nationalist leader in exile
Zenon Poznyak's recent statement that Milinkevich was not a

nationalist helped his cause in Russia and in Belarus,
where the description nationalist is often publicly
associated with fascism.)


12. (C) He also hoped to travel to Brussels to meet EU
officials, preferably during the November 7 General Affairs
and External Relations (GAERC) Ministerial. (Note: The UK
Embassy in Minsk was trying to arrange for the
participation of Milinkevich in the planned EU foreign
ministers' discussion on Belarus.) Milinkevich agreed with
Ambassador's suggestion that it may be useful for the 10+
nominee to meet with senior U.S. officials who will be in
Brussels for U.S.-EU meetings during the same time period.


Lack Of A Cohesive PR Campaign Remains A Challenge
-------------- --------------


13. (C) Milinkevich noted he has been unable to hire a
good PR person with journalistic experience to develop the
public relations strategy. (Comment: Milinkevich campaign
team member recently told Pol/Econ Chief Dobrovolsky was
handling Milinkevich's relations with the press. However,
this position is likely a temporary responsibility for
Dobrovolsky; his chief responsibility is campaign
strategy.) Milinkevich noted there are many who would like
to work for him but they need financial compensation.


Lack of Money Remains An Even Bigger Challenge
-------------- -


14. (C) Milinkevich admitted his campaign was desperate
for financial support. In fact, he apologized to
Ambassador that the urgent need for resources was the main
reason for his visit. Milinkevich said that his campaign
has little money to launch voter outreach activities. He
noted that he can get funding from those who invite him to
travel abroad but he does not have enough money "even for
gas to travel to the outlying regions in Belarus." Using
the limited resources he does have available, Milinkevich
plans to travel to the nearby city of Baranovichi in early
November to meet with voters in local markets and conduct
press interviews, but he said he could do nothing more with
current levels of assistance.


15. (C) The candidate is afraid people will forget about
him and the 10+ coalition if his travel around the country
is so limited. He noted some Belarusian businessmen have
indicated their willingness to provide him financial
support but only if his campaign gains traction with
voters. Although Milinkevich repeatedly expressed his
gratitude for the monetary and technical assistance he has
received from U.S. and other NGOs, he stressed the 10+
coalition required an immediate infusion of resources to
launch effectively his campaign.


More Coordination Among Donors Also Needed
--------------


16. (C) Milinkevich also noted a lack of coordination
among foreign donors. He was concerned that all the
resources to help the democratic cause in Belarus were
going to a wide variety of programs and activities, but he
perceived the foreign NGOs knew little about what the other
foreign NGOs were doing. He characterized the coordination
issue as a serious problem that will significantly limit
the opposition's prospects for promoting democratic change
during the election. Ambassador assured Milinkevich the
USG is actively working on this issue.


Comment
--------------


17. (C) Alexander Milinkevich won the 10+ coalition's
nomination for contender to President Lukashenko in the
2006 elections by just eight votes, and thus has had to
work hard to keep the democratic alliance together. For
the most part, Milinkevich's decision to place his former

competitors and their supporters in key positions in his
campaign has paid off. The opposition candidate has the
backing of a relatively unified coalition, in addition to
the support he already enjoys from the local NGO community.
But he is also cognizant of the repressive political
environment in which he is forced to operate and the need
to build up sufficient popular support that could lead to a
popular rejection of Lukashenko. A key challenge for the
Milinkevich team is resources, especially for the start up
of the campaign. Without domestic sources, the campaign
will depend on external resources to attract domestic
support and staff.

KROL