Opposition Chooses Single Candidate

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001205

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: Opposition Chooses Single Candidate

Refs: (A) Minsk 836, (B) Minsk 1099

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Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The 10+ coalition, by far Belarus' largest
opposition group, held its Congress of Democratic Forces in
Minsk October 1 and 2 and narrowly chose Aleksandr
Milinkevich to be its single candidate to challenge
President Lukashenko in the July 2006 elections. This
congress was the culmination of a selection process the 10+
began in June (reftels),and marked the official start of
the 10+'s presidential campaign. The process itself
appeared democratic and well run, and most participants
seemed pleased with Milinkevich's victory. However, others
agreed he would be a good president, in a normal democracy,
but might not have what it takes to beat Lukashenko ("He's
no Yeltsin!"). The 10+ also does not appear ready to begin
immediately its campaign, and some pointed out other
opposition candidates would likely announce themselves.
End summary.


2. (C) The 10+, which unites nearly all of Belarus pro-
democracy political parties and a number of NGOs, had
applied at a number of venues to hold the congress in
Belarus. After being denied from every one, they started
planning the congress to be in Ukraine or Russia. Against
all expectations, Lukashenko surprisingly announced on
September 8 the 10+ could hold its congress in Minsk (ref
B). Despite having less than a month to plan, the congress
came off without any major problems. In fact, the congress
appeared to be very well planned and run. The Right
Alliance youth NGO even provided 40 of its members, armed
with radios, to provide security to the event and the
subsequent winner. Vintsuk Vyachorka, head of the
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF),told Econoff there had been
several problems behind the scenes, but would not
elaborate.


The Participants
--------------


3. (C) The Congress of Democratic Forces brought together
813 pro-democracy delegates and a number of guests and
observers from across Belarus and neighboring countries.
Several Members of the European Parliament, from Slovakia,
the Netherlands and Sweden, attended, as did a member of
the Ukrainian parliament and an advisor to FM Tarasyuk, and
representatives of Russia's Union of Right Forces (who
offered 2,000 volunteers to help bring democracy to
Belarus). The Czech MFA sent a small delegation. Although
the European Commission did not send anyone to observe,
Alistair Rabagliati, an EC official from the Moscow TACIS
office who is dating a Belarusian and is friends with IRI's
Belarus officer, came on his own. He said even though he
was not there in an official capacity he would write a
report on the congress for Brussels. Two MPs from Poland's
Law and Justice Party, Filip Libicki and Norbert Napieraj,
were denied entry to Belarus at the border. The Congress
also accredited 160 journalists, including many from
Poland, Lithuania, Russia, Denmark and the Netherlands, as
well as Belarusian state TV.


Milinkevich Wins by a Hair
--------------


4. (C) The 10+ coalition invited 839 delegates to attend.
Several contacts reported that many delegates, namely
schoolteachers, had been ordered to work on Saturday,
forcing them to miss the first day. The belief was the
regime had tried to prevent them from attending.
Regardless, most of these did arrive on Sunday, when 813
delegates were present.


5. (SBU) In his introductory speech former head of state
Stanislav Shushkevich announced he would step down as a
potential candidate, but support whomever wins, to great
cheers from the crowd. In the first round of voting
Ratusha NGO leader Aleksandr Milinkevich received 383
votes, United Civic Party head Anatoly Lebedko 263, and
(pro-democracy) Communist Sergey Kalyakin 152, with 3
ballots spoiled and 12 voting against all. The congress
broke for lunch and started the second round of voting,
between Lebedko and Milinkevich, immediately thereafter.
In this round Milinkevich won with 399 votes, to Lebedko's
391, with 3 ballots spoiled, 3 not turned in and 13 against

MINSK 00001205 002.2 OF 003


both. Milinkevich therefore beat Lebedko by one percent of
the vote, and became the 10+'s single candidate having
received just under half the delegates' support.


6. (SBU) In his acceptance speech Milinkevich announced he
would fight Lukashenko to the end of the campaign and
called for unity among all the opposition. At a subsequent
press conference Milinkevich attempted to defuse criticism
that he is too western-oriented: "Relations with Russia are
very important for us. Russia is our strategic partner,
with which we have inseparable ties," (more on Milinkevich
septel).


7. (SBU) The independent election observation NGO
Partnership observed both vote counts and informed Econoff
that the voting and count had been conducted in a
democratic manner. Additionally, the press was allowed to
observe freely both the vote and the count. No journalists
are known to have reported any problems.


Cracks in the Unity
--------------


8. (C) The 10+'s four presidential hopefuls and their
supporters were all given the chance to speak, as did a
number of other 10+ members. Several opposition figures
who remain outside the 10+ process, such as schoolmaster
and NGO leader Vladimir Kolas, former Respublika MP Valery
Frolov and former opposition presidential candidate
Vladimir Goncharik, also spoke. Notably missing were most
members of the Free Belarus coalition. In general the
speeches all called for greater unity in the opposition,
although many stressed that the hard work of campaigning
had yet to begin. Frolov and Dmitry Dashkevich of Malady
Front both made significant gaffes, with Frolov announcing
that nationalists are fascists and Dashkevich claiming
Malady Front would work with any candidate, except a
communist.


9. (C) Although everyone called for unity in public,
several participants privately told Emboffs of potential
problems in the opposition. Kolas stressed to Econoff that
this congress chose only the 10+'s candidate, not the
opposition's candidate, and said many do not agree with the
10+ process. Several delegates backing the UCP's Lebedko
discussed with Pol/Econ Chief their fundamental differences
with Milinkevich's apparent priorities Q i.e. resurrection
of the Belarusian language and culture and closer ties with
the West. Ales Karnienko, a Belarusian nationalist and NGO
leader from Gomel, complained that Milinkevich would be the
worst possible candidate for the opposition as he lacks
energy and the ability to work with others. Several people
decried what they called Milinkevich's inept management of
Domash's presidential campaign in 2001. Several others
said they had voted for Milinkevich, but only because he
was the least objectionable candidate. They complained
that none of these candidates were known to the Belarusian
people, and questioned their ability to conduct a
successful campaign. Perspektiva leader Anatoly Shemchenko
told Econoff before the event he decided to boycott,
because his group decided participating in the elections
would be futile. Despite these negative statements, the
vast majority of participants seemed pleased, or at least
accepting, of the results. [Comment: As they should, as
this congress almost entirely consisted of 10+ members.]


State Media Provocations; The Opposition is Gay?
-------------- ---


10. (SBU) The decision to allow Belarusian state TV to
participate quickly led to several regime provocations. On
the first day a troupe of self-proclaimed homosexuals
appeared outside to announce their support for the
opposition. State TV seized on this (if they did not plan
it) and on October 1 aired commentary focusing on the
opposition's "homosexual platform." On October 2 state TV
continued its mockery of the congress with a cartoon and
the slogan, "Belarus to Europe, through the a**," (more on
media reaction septel). In another clearly staged
incident, a bystander threw sour cream in the face of
former head of state Stanislav Shushkevich, shouting, "This
is for what you did to my country!!", just as a state TV
cameraman appeared to film Shushkevich. This will no doubt
be aired in clips commiserating over the fall of the USSR.


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Resolutions
--------------


11. (C) As this was by far the largest gathering of pro-
democracy forces in Belarus in years, the congress took the
opportunity to vote on a number of other issues. Most
importantly, the congress voted to jointly support
whichever candidate won, to pool the coalition's resources,
and to abstain from nominating competing candidates.
[Note: Until now the 10+ had been an informal coalition of
party leaders. This was the first time coalition
membership was put to a vote by party members.] The
congress also agreed to support the Belarusian language,
urge Lukashenko not to seek re-election, and for the GOB to
conduct free and fair elections. The only controversy came
in an argument about creating a commission to investigate
previous political disappearances.


Just the Beginning
--------------


12. (C) Comment: The choice of Milinkevich has advantages
and disadvantages. Of the four candidates, he was clearly
the weakest public speaker, lacking energy and a strong
message. He is also routinely criticized for his heavy-
handed and ineffective management of the 2001 Domash
presidential campaign. On the other hand, he brings to the
table a network of NGO supporters across Belarus, he lacks
the stigma of belonging to a political party (even though
he was nominated by the widely reviled BPF),and he has not
yet been a target of Lukashenko's propaganda attack
machine. He also has leadership experience, having been
the deputy mayor of Grodno in the mid-1990s. As several
congress participants put it, "He would be a good
president, in a normal country, but he might not have what
it takes to challenge Lukashenko."


13. (C) Comment cont'd: As many of those participating in
the congress acknowledged, the selection of a single
candidate was just the first step in the 10+ coalition's
presidential campaign. More important will be how the 10+
advertises its candidate and reaches out to a skeptical
populace, particularly in the face of increasingly shrill
pro-Lukashenko propaganda. A number of 10+ leaders
admitted campaigning must start immediately, but all made
it clear few plans were in place to do so. However, the
BPF's Vyachorka pointed out that once the 10+ starts to
campaign it should have an easier time as Belarusians
always ask, "If not Lukashenko, then who?"; the opposition
finally has a name to give as an alternative. Milinkevich
himself seemed at a loss in his acceptance speech, not
taking the opportunity to enunciate a clear message or fire
up the troops. We can only hope he finds his footing soon.


KROL