Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK1194
2005-09-30 10:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Single Opposition Candidate Convention Almost A

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR BO 
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DE RUEHSK #1194/01 2731002
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 301002Z SEP 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3076
INFO RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3379
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3159
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1425
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3046
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2934
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0680
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001194 

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: Single Opposition Candidate Convention Almost A
Reality

Ref: Minsk 836

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001194

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: Single Opposition Candidate Convention Almost A
Reality

Ref: Minsk 836

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The 10+ coalition leaders are frantically
making the final preparations for the single candidate
convention, which will take place in Minsk October 1-2.
The approximately 900 delegates will select one of the four
candidates to be the single candidate on the second day of
the congress. The 10+ candidates and convention organizers
recently discussed the details of the convention with
Ambassador, stressing they have gone to great lengths to
make the congress an event around which all members of the
democratic opposition could rally. If the GOB allows the
congress to proceed as scheduled, the election of a single
candidate will clearly represent a positive development in
the opposition camp, especially if they genuinely achieve
unity. But the hardest test remains Q can the opposition
candidate attract support from the people. Here the
opposition will have to change tactics and focus more on
establishing direct contact with voters than on organizing
themselves. End Summary.


2. (U) On September 26, Ambassador and Pol/Econ Chief met
with the four candidates of the 10+ Coalition Q Anatoliy
Lebedko, head of the United Civic Party (UCP),Sergey
Kalyakin, head of the pro-democracy Belarusian Party of
Communists (BPC),Stanislav Shushkevich, former head of
state and leader of a surviving fraction of the Belarusian
Social-Democratic Party Hramada, and Aleksandr Milinkevich,
leader of the Belarusian Association of Resource Centers,
who was nominated by the Green Party and the nationalist
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF). The candidates were
accompanied by congress organizers and coalition leaders
Aleksandr Bukvostov, leader of the de-registered Belarusian
Party of Labor, and Vinchuk Vyachorka, head of the BPF.
The 10+ coalition leaders reviewed their plans for the
October 1-2 single candidate convention and stressed their
intention to unite all democratic forces.


Organizers Slowly But Surely Develop A Schedule of Events
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The 10+ leaders could offer Ambassador little

concrete information on the schedule of the congress at the
time of their meeting, but Bukvostov was able to provide a
general overview of events. Activities on October 1 will
include an election of election committee and speeches by
congress organizers, political party leaders, NGO
representatives, and several invited guests. On October 2
the program will consist of speeches prepared by the
candidates, a session for the delegates to pose questions
to the candidates, the election of the single candidate, a
press conference given by the single candidate and his
campaign team, and a music concert. Bukvostov added that
the organizers of the convention will be conducting press
interviews on both days to keep local and international
press informed of developments.


4. (SBU) The congress organizers passed to the Embassy on
September 28 a draft agenda for the convention, which
tracks closely with what the organizers told Ambassador two
days earlier. On October 1, the congress will commence at
2pm (local time) and end at 7pm. On October 2, the
congress will resume its program at 9:30am, the first round
of voting will occur at 11:30am, the second round (if
necessary) will be at 2pm, and the congress will officially
end around 9pm (following the music concert).


5. (U) The candidates and organizers of the convention
announced they will be conducting a press conference at the
Belarusian Popular Front headquarters on September 30 to
discuss the purpose and details of the congress. Lebedko
expected only independent media will show up for the press
conference.


Voting Procedures Decided
--------------


6. (U) Organizers invited around 900 people to participate
asQelegates in the congress, although the organizers were
still not sure how many delegates would show up for the
event. Delegates will include those chosen from the
approximately 147 local conventions held throughout the
country, NGO representatives, political party
representatives, former members of the 12th and 13th Supreme
Soviets, editors of democratic newspapers, and VIPs
(national poets, writers, wives of the disappeared, etc.)
(reftel). The convention organizers recently decided that
a candidate must gain 50 percent plus one vote to win the
10+ nomination for presidential candidate in the 2006
elections. A runoff election will be held if none of the
contenders receives enough votes in the first round.


Everyone Invited to Congress, Except for GOB Officials
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Bukvostov handed the Ambassador a personal
invitation to the congress, and stressed all foreign
diplomats were requested to attend the congress. Aside
from members of the diplomatic community, Shushkevich noted
local independent and state press, foreign press, and
foreign government officials were also sent invitations.
(Note: Ambassador and the 13 EU HOMs will be attending the
congress together to show united support for the congress
and possibly to deter GOB-orchestrated shenanigans.
Currently, the ambassadors' plans are to observe the
beginning and closing ceremonies, including the election of
the single candidate. Post will field several Emboffs to
cover the entire event.)


8. (SBU) Ambassador asked the organizers whether
representatives of the government were invited to observe
the congress. All were reluctant to answer the question,
but Bukvostov finally said the GOB was not invited to the
congress because it is strictly a gathering of democratic
forces.


Opposition Forces Attempt To Unite
--------------


9. (SBU) On September 27, the 10+ coalition leaders signed
an agreement with leaders of the non-party opposition
movement to unify forces sometime during the electoral
process and select from among them a single candidate to
run against President Lukashenko. Non-party opposition
signatories of the agreement included former Speaker of the
Council of the Republic Alexander Voitovich, former
National Lyceum Rector Vladimir Kolas, former MP Valery
Frolov, and former Agricultural Minister Vasily Leonov.
(Note: Anatoly Fyoderov, close advisor to Voitovich,
recently told Pol/Econ Chief the selection of the single
candidate to represent the entire opposition movement will
occur immediately following the official registration of
all presidential candidates, which will not take place
until six weeks prior to election day.)


10. (SBU) Congress organizers told the Ambassador during
their September 26 meeting the 10+ Coalition was sincerely
interested in coordinating activities with all members of
the opposition movement. Shushkevich cited as proof the
decision to grant interested leaders of the non-party
opposition Q including Voitovich, Frolov, and Leonov Q
delegate status to the convention. Kalyakin noted
Aleksandr Kozulin, head of Belarusian Social Democratic
Party Hrmada and another likely contender for presidency,
will not participate in the convention due to travel plans
outside of Belarus. (Comment: Kozulin's absence from the
congress is not coincidental. He consistently has been
critical of the congress and the 10+ candidates.) Despite
some setbacks, the 10+ leaders were optimistic they could
reach a real agreement on greater unity.


Television Coverage of Congress Is Key
--------------


11. (SBU) Lebedko, Kalyakin, and Shushkevich emphasized

the importance of gaining access to state media. The
convention organizers have sent letters to the state
television stations to request they attend and broadcast
the congress. The 10+ leaders recognize that state media
has portrayed the single candidate process as a farce, but
the leaders are convinced the benefits of having the
congress broadcast throughout Belarus outweigh the
political costs.


12. (SBU) Kalyakin noted the 10+ leaders would be
traveling to Moscow this week to participate in a televised
conference on Belarus. They hope the event will provide an
opportunity for Russian media to carry information on the
convention, which will reach audiences in Russia and
perhaps in Belarus. Shushkevich, however, said he did not
plan on attending the conference because he believes
Russian media has already thrown its support behind
Lukashenko and the congress would therefore be portrayed in
a negative manner.


USG Assistance Requested
--------------


13. (C) Kalyakin asked the Ambassador about the
possibility of the USG providing money to the congress
organizers for the purchase of a printing machine. The
machine would be used to print the coalition's own
information bulletins about the single candidate process
and convention. Ambassador advised the leaders to seek
such assistance through NGO donors (and privately advised
them to raise it with their IRI advisor).


14. (C) Ambassador discussed with the coalition leaders
the possibility of American journalists in Washington
conducting an interview of opposition leaders via digital
conferencing technology. Holding such a press conference
could help keep the international spotlight focused on
Belarus. The interview could be scheduled within the next
several weeks. The 10+ leaders expressed strong interest
in the idea and thanked Ambassador for continued U.S.
support.


GOB Cooperative, Thus Far
--------------


15. When asked to what extent Minsk city and security
officials have cooperated with the organizers of the
congress, the coalition leaders said the GOB has been
unusually cooperative. The authorities have resolved, or
are in the process of resolving, all pending logistical and
security issues. However, the congress organizers and
candidates were convinced government cooperation was based
on ulterior motives.


16. Vyachorka and others suspected Lukashenko wanted the
congress held in Minsk to be able to exert greater control
over the event. Some coalition leaders worried that the
GOB would erect last-minute administrative or legal
barriers to prevent the congress from taking place or
finishing as scheduled. Others believed the government
will call on state-controlled organizations, such as the
Belarusian Republican Youth Council (BRSM),to organize
demonstrations outside the congress and possibly disrupt
the event. Bukvostov, who has worked closely with city
officials on the planning of the event, attempted to
assuage the fears of the other coalition leaders by
reminding the group that the GOB thus far has cooperated
fully with the congress organizers. Bukvostov suggested
the 10+ leaders should focus more on putting together a
successful congress, and not on what the government might
do to disrupt it.


EU Approach to External Broadcasting Not The Answer
-------------- --------------


17. (SBU) Vyachorka raised with Ambassador rumors that the
EU will grant its tender for an external broadcasting
project to foreign NGOs such as BBC, Radio Free Europe, or

Deutsche Welle. He argued the broadcasting should be
handled by a Belarusian group Q i.e., Belarusians speaking
to Belarusians. Kalyakin added that a foreign group
running a radio station would be a waste of money.
Ambassador noted their concerns, but responded that at
least the EU has taken steps to address the information
vacuum.


Comment
--------------


18. (C) The 10+ leaders have clearly been working hard to
organize a successful and highly visible single candidate
convention. The question arises to what extent will the
single candidate convention spark an interest in the
democratic movement among the masses. Many political
observers, regional part and NGO leaders, and members of
the diplomatic community have told us the single candidate
convention clearly represents a step forward. However,
civil society and diplomatic interlocutors criticize the
10+ candidates, and the democratic opposition in general,
for not devoting enough attention to voters.


19. (C) The single candidate convention is indeed a
positive development, representing a clear effort to
establish unity among the opposition. While not perfect,
the process, facilitated by US NGOs IRI and NDI, has helped
teach the parties the act of compromise and has given them
valuable experience in organizing a congress. Still, the
next step Q reaching out to the voters Q will be the
toughest test. Notwithstanding GOB repression, the
opposition has yet to establish consistent contact with
voters and, equally important, they have yet to develop an
attractive campaign platform. After the congress,
opposition must focus their efforts less on internal
matters and courting foreign donors and more on
implementing creative methods for rallying public support
under the tough conditions of dictatorship.

KROL