New Poll - Lukashenko Already Winning

UNCLAS MINSK 001192

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR INR
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: New Poll - Lukashenko Already Winning

Refs: A) Minsk, B) Minsk 992


1. (U) Summary: NOVAK released the results of its August -
September survey and presented an analysis to Pol Chief on
September 27. Lukashenko's rating jumped 5 percentage
points while the leading opposition contenders' ratings
remained below one percent. However, the percentage of
those who did not know whether they would vote for
Lukashenko increased to 46 percent. Lukashenko, his
government, army, state media, orthodox church, and national
bank received high levels of trust while the independent
media, OSCE, and NATO were distrusted the most. The
respondents were aware of the ethnic Poles' conflict with
the GOB and were divided about who was to blame. Most
people get their information from the state-controlled TV
and state press and very few listen to foreign broadcasts.
End Summary.


2. (U) Pol Chief met with Andrei Vardomatsky, head of the
NOVAK polling service, on September 27. Vardomatsky
presented the results of his latest poll conducted
nationwide between August 30 and September 9. The poll
included 1068 respondents.

Lukashenko's Approval Rating Jumps
--------------


3. (U) In NOVAK's June survey, the percentage of respondents
who would vote for Lukashenko if elections were tomorrow
remained stagnate at 42.3 percent, but the percentage of
those who would vote against the president dropped to 18
percent - its lowest in two and half years (ref A). In
September, however, 47.8 percent of those polled would vote
for Lukashenko and only 12.3 percent would vote against him.
Anatoly Lebedko of the United Civil Party was a distant
second, receiving one percent and the rest of the opposition
receiving less than 0.5 percent. The other 46 percent of
respondents did not know who they would vote for or simply
did not answer. In an effort to gain a better understanding
of Lukashenko's support among different demographic groups,
NOVAK juxtaposed Lukashenko's positive ratings with the
positive rating of Russian President Vladimir Putin. [Note:
Putin's ratings were calculated from polling data collected
in Russia.]


4. (U) Vardomatsky focused on the respondents' age,
education, residence, and income. Below are the results:

Income Lukashenko Putin
-------------- -------------- --------------

Low 29.0(%) 51.5
Average 32.3 50.6
High 24.4 49.8

Residence
--------------

Metropolis 23.7 52.8
Large Cities 22.5 50.8
Small Cities 16.2 49.2
Villages 40.7 52.7

Age
---

18 - 35 years 11.1 57.0
36 - 54 18.4 48.1
55 and older 55.8 47.1

Education
--------------

Below Secondary 62.6 43.3
General Secondary 37.4 52.4
Secondary Special 24.1 51.6
Higher 17.8 55.2


5. (SBU) Comment: It is not surprising that pensioners and
people living in villages support Lukashenko the most.
Retirees in Belarus receive higher pensions than those in
Russia and on a monthly basis. In April, the average
pension rose eight percent and in August, Lukashenko ordered
an 11-percent increase to approximately USD 100. The
pension hike is in addition to the usual benefits, such as
pharmaceutical discounts and free access to public
transportation. Lukashenko's billion-dollar rural revival
program has provided villagers with new, larger homes
(though of bad quality),paved roads, electricity,
communication (cellular and internet),and all other
amenities that had previously been available only in large
cities. The rural revival program also provides for the
construction of over 1500 agricultural communities with
stadiums, fitness centers, cultural buildings, and
businesses while collective farms are receiving large
"loans" to modernize and buy new equipment. His high
approval rating indicates that Lukashenko's policies towards
these groups have not been in vain. End Comment.

Who Can You Trust?
--------------


6. (U) Similar to previous polls, NOVAK measured the
respondents' level of trust in state and social institutions
and organizations. Government institutions remained the
most trusted while international and independent
organizations remained on the bottom of the list.

Name Trust Distrust Hard to Say
-------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

Orthodox Church 77.6(%) 9.9 12.5
Army 72.0 17.4 10.6
National Bank 67.9 18.0 14.1
President 61.9 21.5 16.6
Belarus Government 58.3 25.1 16.5
State-Run Mass Media 57.5 34.1 8.4
UN 44.6 23.3 32.1
Non-State Mass Media 28.5 48.8 22.7
OSCE 22.0 34.3 43.6
NATO 17.0 48.5 34.5

Belarusians Split On The Language Issue
--------------


7. (U) Despite recent controversy in the opposition camp
over the use of Russian instead of Belarusian in the soon-to-
begin Deutsche Welle radio broadcasts (ref B),only 10.9
percent believe the broadcasts should be in Belarusian.
Thirty percent believe the broadcasts should be in Russian
and 20.6 thought it should be a combination of both.

KROL