Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK1165
2005-09-23 13:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Flaws in Single Candidate Process

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
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INFO RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3371
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3149
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1418
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3039
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2925
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RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001165 

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: Flaws in Single Candidate Process

Ref: Minsk 836

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001165

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO
SUBJECT: Flaws in Single Candidate Process

Ref: Minsk 836

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The independent election observation NGO
Partnership recently released a report on the conduct of
the opposition 10+ coalition's single candidate process.
Partnership documented numerous instances of harassment by
the regime, but also pointed out failings by the
oppositiQ, such as a lack of new people or ideas,
marginally active leadership, and low levels of popular
support. Partnership wants there to be an alternative to
Lukashenko, but so far does not see it in the traditional
opposition. Partnership's head summarized the NGO's recent
activities, demonstrating again that they are an impressive
group. End summary.


2. (SBU) On September 21 Nikolay Astreyka, head of the
independent, but anti-Lukashenko, election observation NGO
Partnership, met with Emboffs. He presented a report
critiquing the opposition 10+ coalition's single candidate
process from June 15 to September 15. Although September
15 was to have been the end of the process, by that date
10+ had only managed to hold 119 of the planned 147 local
conventions to choose delegates for their October 1 Q 2
congress (which Partnership will also observe).
Partnership observers attended 95 of these local
conventions. The NGO found that the regime routinely
interfered in the process, and that the 10+ leaders did a
poor job of organizing and conducting many of the
conventions. Nonetheless, Partnership concluded the local
conventions were generally conducted in a democratic
manner.


Regime Harassment
--------------


3. (SBU) Partnership documented numerous cases of regime
harassment of the local conventions. They noted police
officers were present at most of the local conventions
across the country, and at all in Gomel Oblast. Although
they usually allowed the conventions to proceed, security
officials video taped participants and wrote down their
passport information. In three instances -- in Pinsk, Elsk
and Sianno -- police arrested the conventions' local
organizers, causing the meeting to be cancelled. Local
authorities in many towns caused difficulties by blocking

rental of any public meeting place. Police in Kalinkovichy
raided a meeting claiming there was a drug lab in the
building, and police in Svetlogorsk held local organizers?
for several hours before the meeting, ostensibly to check
their identification. Local fire departments forced the
evacuation of three meeting halls on the pretence there was
a fire (although Partnership saw nothing) and a HAZMAT team
evacuated one hall claiming it was contaminated with
mercury.


But Opposition Falls Short
--------------


4. (C) Astreyka and the Partnership report were also
critical of the opposition. While stressing this process
is a vast improvement over how the opposition chose its
single candidate in 2001 (a handful of people in a
backroom, three weeks before the election),Astreyka said
Qhere were still problems. The 10+ refused to allow
Partnership to observe a number of meetings, although it is
impossible to say how often this happened. The 10+ gave
Partnership incorrect times or places for several meetings,
but Astreyka does not know if this was deliberate or poor
management. At a few meetings, in Mogilev and Vitebsk
Oblasts, local 10+ organizers refused to allow Partnership
observers into the event. Astreyka said he personally
tried to observe one of the first local conventions, in
Molodechno, but the four 10+ candidates argued no outside
observers should be present. It came to a vote, and
Astreyka was narrowly allowed to observe.


5. (C) Astreyka opined that this single candidate process
has demonstrated several failings of Belarus' opposition.
After holding 119 meetings, only 4,200 people have
participated. Astreyka pointed out the 10+ consists of ten
member parties (each of which by law should have 1,000
members) and hundreds of NGOs, so this is a poor turnout.
He fears this is not enough people to campaign effectively
for the single candidate. Because of this low turnout,
Partnership reported that 26 conventions were cancelled
because of a lack of quorum (originally a minimum of 25
people, later lowered to 23). The 10+ subsequently changed
the rules to allow meetings with as few as 13 people to
choose one delegate and at least 23 people to choose two.
Most troubling, Astreyka said that it was the same old
party members and activists who participated in these
conventions; the 10+ failed completely at attracting any
new participants. The coalition only publicly advertised
the conventions in Minsk City. Everywhere else, they were
announced exclusively to party and NGO members.


6. (C) The four potential 10+ presidential candidates
attended only a small minority of the conventions.
Aleksandr Milinkevich attended the most, 20; Anatoliy
Lebedko and Sergey Kalyakin both were at 17, and Stanislav
Shushkevich visited 15 conventions. Astreyka reported that
these four mostly attended conventions as a group, and only
in the larger cities. None of them bothered to go to
smaller towns or villages to meet their supporters, instead
sending local representatives. While all spoke when they
did attend, it was usually about the candidate selection
process or about Belarus in general. Astreyka was
disappointed that none of them discussed their platforms or
tried to sell themselves to voters. He said this reflected
a lack of activism on their part; there was no agreement
between the candidates to avoid such topics. As a result,
Astreyka heard no new ideas at these conventions.


7. (C) Post has heard complaints from several contacts that
Milinkevich and Lebedko, in particular, have been "buying"
delegates. Partnership did not include this in its report,
but Astreyka said Milinkevich and Lebedko have already
promised all paid positions in their campaigns, if they
win, to local supporters in exchange for votes. He said no
money was given for votes, but rather the candidates handed
out the chance for a future salary. [Note: Post wonders
which international donor will be asked to pay these
salaries.] This disappointed Astreyka, as he felt these
vital campaign positions were going to local supporters
rather than qualified campaign managers.


How the Conventions Voted
--------------


8. (SBU) According to data from NDI, as of September 20
4,371 people had participated in 121 local conventions.
They elected 225 delegates, from: 57 United Civic Party
(Lebedko),50 Belarus Popular Front (Milinkevich),43 non-
party, 28 Party of Belarusian Communists (Kalyakin),15
Perspektiva, 9 Belarusian Social-Democrat Party Narodnaya
Hramada, and 5 or less from the deregistered Party of
Labor, Belarusian Social-Democrat Hramada (Shushkevich),
Christian Conservative Party, pro-Kozulin Social-Democrats,
the unregistered Party of Freedom and Progress, the Right
Alliance youth NGO, independent trade unions, and the
Malady Front youth NGO.


Partnership Update: An Impressive NGO
--------------


9. (C) Partnership is an independent election observation
NGO funded mainly by NDI. In 2004's parliamentary
elections it placed 3,500 election observers in 25 percent
of Belarus' polling stations. Astreyka reported roughly
half the 2004 observers decided to be more active for 2006
and work on the campaign of the opposition's single
candidate. For the 2006 presidential elections they plan
to field 5,000 observers in half the 7,000 polling places.
Partnership has 895 registered members and 19 paid staff.
Between elections they work on social advocacy issues,
namely helping citizens appeal to the government to improve
street lighting, water, roads, etc. Three years ago, when
Partnership began such work, it had a 30 percent success
rate at getting authorities to respond. Now that the
regime knows Partnership for election observation, the
organization's success rate has dropped to 10 percent.


10. (C) Although independent, Partnership is willing to
help the 10+ or other opposition groups. The NGO
distributes 400,000 copies of its -%thly bulletin. In
July Partnership dedicated its bulletin to the 10+
candidates, printing their backgrounds and platforms.
Police stopped the cars of four of seven regional
Partnership coordinators as they left Minsk, and seized
170,000 of the bulletins. Partnership's leadership is also
searched whenever they cross a border. Astreyka was
searched at length September 21 as he returned from Riga by
bus, and his deputy was detained and searched for two hours
at the airport before she flew to an ODIHR conference in
Warsaw on September