Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MINSK1126
2005-09-16 10:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:  

Unexpectedly Active Opposition in Southwest

Tags:  PGOV CASC BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #1126/01 2591030
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161030Z SEP 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2999
INFO RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3358
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3129
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1406
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3027
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2906
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0657
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001126 

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/15
TAGS: PGOV CASC BO
SUBJECT: Unexpectedly Active Opposition in Southwest
Belarus

Ref: 03 Minsk 1936

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001126

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/15
TAGS: PGOV CASC BO
SUBJECT: Unexpectedly Active Opposition in Southwest
Belarus

Ref: 03 Minsk 1936

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: September 12 was the tenth anniversary of
the Belarusian military shooting down a hot air balloon and
killing the two American pilots. Emboffs and local
residents visited the crash site. While in the region,
Emboffs also visited local civil society leaders in three
nearby small towns. These visits demonstrated the
essential role of leadership in mobilizing opposition to
Lukashenko. Civil groups in two of the towns had strong
local leaders, and as a result were much more active than
is the norm in Belarus, particularly in distributing
underground newspapers. In the third, an impressive
newspaper editor has kept her embattled paper alive and
spreading independent information, while the local
political parties languish under weak leadership. There
was nothing out of the ordinary about the citizens of these
towns, demonstrating the possibilities throughout Belarus,
if only the opposition could find good leadership. End
summary.


Balloonists Remembered
--------------


2. (U) On September 12 Poloff and PAO traveled to a small
village outside the town of Beryoza, southwestern Belarus,
to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the Belarusian
military shooting down a hot air balloon and killing the
two Amcit pilots. Local residents guided Emboffs first to
a marker placed by the GOB remembering, "two Americans who
tragically died here." However, the GOB marker was
approximately a kilometer from the actual crash site.
Locals then led the Emboffs to the actual site, where local
residents themselves placed a large stone marker, marked
with the date (12.9.1995) and the Belarusian word
"Probatchte" [Forgive Us].


3. (U) Two villagers appeared and said they had witnessed
the shoot-down and were the first to find the crashed
balloon. Contradicting the official Belarusian report, the
two said the military helicopter opened fire immediately on
the balloon, firing into the gondola. They said from the
state of the bodies it was clear one of the pilots was
killed by large caliber gunfire and the other by the fall.
The local residents all thanked Emboffs for visiting the

site, with several opining their own government cares
little for its citizens. They also expressed outrage that
the helicopter pilot received a medal from the state for
these murders. A local journalist covered the visit and
will publish a story in a local newspaper. Emboffs thanked
the locals for caring for the site and remembering the
pilots. [Note: on September 13 an aide to Lukashenko
published an editorial in the main state newspaper,
Sovetskaya Belarus, lauding Lukashenko for having the
courage to shoot down this hot air balloon since it was
"spying" near a "secret Belarusian nuclear facility."]


The Value of Leadership
--------------


4. (C) Emboffs then visited three small towns in the area,
Beryoza (pop. 30,000),Beloozyorsk (pop. 13,000) and
Ivatsevichi (pop. 25,000). In all three Emboffs found an
atypically high level of political and social activity by
local civil society. One local leader stated that
Belarusians are all the same across the country, but what
makes this region an exception is the local pro-democracy
leadership. This certainly seemed true, and a weak party
leadership in Ivatsevichi provided a strong counter
example.


Thriving Nationalists in Beryoza
--------------


5. (C) Beryoza is a small town whose main employer is a
state owned tile factory. The GOB invested in new Italian

equipment for the factory, which cut in half the number of
needed employees. However, with Lukashenko's emphasis on
social justice, the factory was not allowed to fire anyone.
It now overproduces and employees are forced to take two
months vacation for every month they work, thereby earning
USD 150 every three months. Management does better at USD
350 a month. Other workers in the region are also
struggling; one person said as a baker she earns USD 70 a
month, and a local collective farm manager stated
agricultural workers earn USD 80 a month, but must work 26
days a month.


6. (C) Emboffs met with the leadership of local civil
society. All represented nationalist groups: the
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF),Belarusian Language Society
(BLS),and Vyasna human rights NGO. Other groups are not
active in the town. This group faces the usual regime
pressures against civil society, including: constant state
propaganda which has convinced most to support Lukashenko
because, "at least there is no war;" an independent
journalist who was fined USD 200, with another USD 1,300 in
court costs, for writing about election fraud; party
members fired from their jobs; citizens told to vote for
Lukashenko in early voting or lose their jobs; and an
activist's son who was forced to join the state youth
group, BRSM, while in the army. They also explained that
the GOB ordered the local post office to find 30 new
subscribers for the main state newspaper, Sovietskaya
Belarus. When the post office only found 14, the post
office's employees were forced to pay for the other 16
subscriptions.


7. (C) Despite these problems, Beryoza's pro-democracy
forces are more active than most. Unlike in many cities,
they were not afraid to meet Emboffs in public or take them
to an apartment. Throughout the entire meeting our
interlocutors were busy collating the current issue of
their samizdat (underground) newspaper, Beryozavy Venik.
The group distributes around 1,000 copies of this paper
every two weeks, as well as hundreds of copies of other
underground papers. All thanked the USG for providing the
funds for these papers, through the Embassy's Democracy
Commission, and asked that the USG continue to help the
free flow of information in Belarus. They had also
recently held a local convention to choose delegates for
the 10+ coalition's single candidate process. [Note:
Because local groups are all nationalist, they elected pro-
Milinkevich delegates.] The raion (local district)
ideology officer attended and denounced the convention, but
did not interfere.


Active Samizdat in Beloozyorsk
--------------


8. (C) In Beloozyorsk Emboffs met with three pro-democracy
members of the town council. Beloozyorsk was the only city
in Belarus where the opposition won a majority on the local
council in 2003's municipal elections. It then became the
first town to hold bi-elections, where the opposition lost
its majority (reftel). Now, nine of the 30 local
councilors are pro-democracy; two others resigned under
heavy regime pressure. Despite their minority status, they
are still able to serve their city. For example, much to
the annoyance of the pro-Lukashenko majority, they are
investigating how local officials misused the town's
budget. Even so, there are limits. Local authorities
blocked them from bringing in outside experts to discuss
citizen rights regarding communal service payments (rent
and utilities),and they are unable to rent an office to
meet constituents.


9. (C) One local councilor, Yury Guberavich, stated civil
society in Beloozyorsk is sufficiently strong that the
local government does not fire pro-democracy activists or
remove their children from school, as is common elsewhere
in Belarus. Guberavich explained there is nothing special
about the citizens of Beloozyorsk -- they are the same as
the rest of Belarusians. The difference is that
Beloozyorsk civil society has effective leadership. As a
result, local parties have dozens of activists experienced

at collecting signatures and speaking with voters.
Guberavich and his team also run a local NGO resource
center, which has a USG-funded risograph hidden in the
city. They use the machine to print thousands of samizdat
newspapers every month for Beloozyorsk, Beryoza and
Ivatsevichi. Their main paper is Altanka, with 1,250
copies twice a month. A local unregistered women's group,
Tais, has a paper with 700 copies a month, and there are
several others. Activists in both Beryoza and Beloozyorsk
said they attract new members through clinics offering free
legal advice.


Mixed News in Ivatsevichi
--------------


10. (C) In Ivatsevichi Emboffs met with Lidiya Tselvyiko,
editor of the local independent newspaper Gazeta dlya Vas
[Newspaper for You], and Ivan Vabischevich, the local
leader of the United Civic Party (UCP). Tselvyiko seemed
to be an energetic and determined journalist. She stated
repression by authorities has greatly increased in the past
year. Her staff used to have no problem speaking with
local authorities, but for the past year they have been
denied access. Even though the newspaper is registered, in
May the city stopped allowing her to sell the paper through
state newspaper kiosks. This cut weekly circulation from
8,000 to 6,000. Gazeta dlya Vas tried to compensate by
creating a newspaper delivery network, but police routinely
arrest the paperboys and hold them for three hours, so
there is very high staff turnover. Local BKGB often call
in her journalists for questioning. The paper was also
fined USD 350 recently for "slander," after accidentally
misspelling someone's name in an article. Despite these
problems, the editor insisted her paper does not self-
censure and remains the most popular paper in the city.
Even though local officials warn businesses away, she said
most still advertise in her paper. In contrast, she said
the local state paper has a weekly circulation of 9,000,
but only because the state forces pensioners to subscribe
and deducts the cost from their pensions.


11. (C) On the other hand, the local UCP leader was not
impressive. Vabischevich is an elderly gentleman, given to
long bouts of pointless chatter. His personal
characteristics are evident in the weak party structure in
Ivatsevichi. The UCP and BPF both have small structures,
and there is a small group of pro-democracy communists.
None of these parties' branches are registered. They
advertised their local delegate convention in Gazeta dlya
Vas for several weeks, but still only attracted 28
participants. To avoid police harassment, they did not
list the location in their advertisement, which likely hurt
attendance. The newspaper editor later explained that five
years ago the BPF had a strong branch in Ivatsevichi, but
it fell apart after its leader was fired from his job and
quit politics.


12. (C) Comment: After visiting these three towns, Post
agrees with Gubarevich that leadership is key. Beryoza and
Beloozyorsk have strong pro-democracy leaders, who are able
to operate and spread their message, despite regime
efforts. Ivatsevichi's newspaper editor has built a
strong, if struggling news outlet. Its parties, though,
clearly show the lack of effective leadership. Although
western Belarusians may be slightly more prone to political
activism, due to historical and cultural legacies, these
examples show what is possible if the opposition were able
to provide effective, strong leadership.


KROL