Regional Opposition Malaise

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001062

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

KIEV FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/15
TAGS: PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: Regional Opposition Malaise

Refs: (A) Minsk 838, (B) Minsk 728

Classified by Charge Constance Phlipot for Reasons 1.4
(B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In the past month Poloffs visited three
mid-sized Belarusian cities, each an hour or two from
Minsk, to the west, northeast and southeast. In each we
found a shrinking and demoralized opposition struggling to
stay alive. Most were at a loss as to how to promote
themselves to the populace, in the face of fears of
government repression. Contacts between pro-democracy
forces and local independent newspapers were surprisingly
poor. Based on past travel, Post unfortunately believes
the picture presented in these three cities is typical of
that across Belarus. When asked what could change their
fortunes around, all asked for increased access to
independent information, including radio broadcasting from
abroad. End summary.


Bobruisk: Pressure Up, but Hope Remains
--------------


2. (C) Emboffs met August 10 with representatives of
political parties and civil society in Bobruisk, two hours
southeast of Minsk. Political parties were represented by
the UCP, BNF, and Kozulin Social-Democrats; NGOs by
Partnership, Malady Front and the Belarus Free Trade Union.
The opposition in Bobruisk is more united than is the norm
and, unlike in many other regional cities, these groups all
have worked together for some time. [Note: the pro-
democracy Communists were noticeably absent.] In fact, all
these groups are working with Aleksandr Kozulin's Social-
Democratic party to collect signatures for Kozulin's
People's Will movement. Such unity is lacking on the
national level.


3. (C) All agreed that repression and fear tactics against
civil society are increasing. The local UCP leader was
recently fined USD 600 for organizing an ABA/CEELI seminar
in Bobruisk, and most of the civil society members at the
meeting had been fired from their job in the past year.
They said that five years ago the typical fine for civil
disobedience was USD 15, now it is over USD 1,000. They
claimed everyone in Bobruisk who ran as an independent
(i.e.- anti-Lukashenko) candidate in the 2004 parliamentary
elections has been fired. Malady Front reported MF
member's parents have been threatened with the loss of
their jobs and student members have been ordered by the GOB
to work in Chernobyl contaminated areas after graduation
[note: Emboffs have heard the same from youth groups in
other cities]. No party or NGO in Bobruisk has been able
to find or register legal office space, so these groups
have no place to meet (Emboffs met them in a park). Almost
all claimed their organizations have not been able to
attract new members for several years. The only exception
was the local social democrat, who said her party benefited
from its recent ouster of former party leader Nikolay
Statkevich.


4. (C) Despite this pressure, the group expressed some
hope. They had recently succeeded in hosting two local
conferences to choose delegates for the opposition's single
candidate process. Although police came and filmed the
events, they allowed them to proceed. All our
interlocutors agreed that the people in rural areas and
small towns near Bobruisk do not support Lukashenko, but
rather vote for him from a lack of information. Malady
Front regularly sends members to nearby villages and towns
to speak to people about alternatives to Lukashenko; the
local MF leader claimed these people are usually excited to
talk to his group. The party leaders said they wished they
had resources to pass out fliers to inform citizens of
their legal rights and to highlight the growing price
discrepancies in basic foodstuffs and commodities between
rural areas and Minsk (they claimed the GOB is keeping
prices low in Minsk). All felt the local independent press
is too timid and afraid to cover political issues.
However, the party leaders admitted their parties did
little to publicize the GOB's election fraud in 2004
elections.


A Timid Bobruisk Press
--------------


MINSK 00001062 002 OF 003



5. (C) On August 10 Emboffs also met with three members of
Bobruisk's independent press. Bobruisk has four
independent papers: the weekly Bobruisk Courier (5,000
copies),the weekly Telegraf (20,000),and the bi-weekly
Commercial Courier (15,000) and Vcherniy Bobruisk (12,000).
In contrast, the two local state papers have a total
circulation of 15,000 copies. Despite this advantage in
numbers, all agreed the independent press operates at a
disadvantage. They complained they do not have access to
government officials or the ever-popular crime reporting
from police; at times the city government tells them to
avoid certain stories; and in November the mayor's
ideological office warned all businesses not to advertise
in the independent press, but especially not in Bobruisk
Courier. Because of this they are losing circulation.
Moreover, the independent papers are charged twice as much
as the state papers for use of the post office for
distribution, further limiting their circulations.


6. (C) All admitted to practicing self-censorship and being
much less critical of the government since October's
elections. Of the four independent papers, Bobruisk
Courier is considered the most "oppositional" because once
a month they run one page of news on the local parties and
NGOs. However, during the parliamentary campaign not even
Bobruisk Courier reported on any local campaigns, either
pro-government or independent, "because no one asked us
to." The editor from Vcherniy Bobruisk said he is
"careful" and avoids provocative issues. While the other
three avoid politics, they said they can get away with
careful reporting on the local economy and society, even if
it is mildly critical of government. Some popular stories
they printed covered rising rent and utility prices, and
local unemployment.


Luckless in Lida
--------------


7. (C) On July 29 Poloffs met with local party leaders in
Lida, western Belarus. Three people, representing the UCP,
BNF and Kozulin's BSDPNG met Poloffs on the street and led
them to a nearby cafe, as they have no offices in that city
of 200,000. They lamented the fact few in Lida even know
political parties exist. Lida has no independent
newspapers, and all expressed frustration their party
leaders rarely if ever visit the city. The BSDPNG is
planning to go door-to-door, on behalf of former Respublika
MP Valeriy Frolov, with a petition calling for changing the
electoral law. The other parties had no plan on how to
promote themselves, but complained about GOB repression and
how party candidates in the 2004 elections lost their jobs
because of their political activities. The only success
civil society has had in Lida was in registering a local
branch of the Belarus Language Society. The local BLS now
has 200 members, mostly from the Lida Pedagogical
University, and is growing. They have not had any trouble
with the regime and local government has allowed them to
meet regularly, unobstructed.


Borisov's Mayor: Its all Great!!
--------------


8. (C) On August 17 Ambassador met the mayor of Borisov,
who lauded the city's growing economy, low unemployment,
high pensions, and many private (and solvent) businesses.
The average income is increasing and the economy is
attracting large investment. The mayor told Ambassador the
local opposition parties are filled with "unlucky,
unsuccessful people who complain about the government but
do nothing more." He dismissed the parties as having no
influence on society. When Ambassador asked if the mayor
had any dialogue with the opposition, he replied that it
was minimal and not constructive.


Borisov's Opposition: Things are Bad!!
--------------


9. (C) On August 17 Ambassador met with local parties in
Borisov, northeast of Minsk. Present were members of the
BNF, Kozulin's BSDPNG, and two youth NGOs. All were
optimistic that once a single opposition candidate is
chosen, they would have a chance to prevail, but only if
the public actually notices the "unjustness and
fabrications in society." Contrary to the mayor's

MINSK 00001062 003 OF 003


statements, the activists claimed Borisov's economy is
worsening because large scale, high-level theft is rampant.
The authorities are trying to modernize bankrupt
industries, but have no money to do so. At least 38
percent of Borisov enterprises are bankrupt and there is no
large-scale investment.


10. (C) The party members informed Ambassador that their
main setback is the lack of an independent press. One
activist spoke of his newspaper, the last remaining
independent paper in Borisov. [Note: The mayor told
Ambassador that the town had five newspapers, four of which
were independent.] Unfortunately, the paper was being
liquidated that day for allegedly printing editorials that
insulted the editor of the local government newspaper.
Seventy percent of his newspaper's profits are from
advertisements, but, as in Bobruisk, businesses are afraid
to pay for advertising for fear of losing their enterprise.


11. (C) The activists explained how the GOB successfully
controls society using softened "Stalin-era" tactics.
Teachers must preach the government's ideology to the
students and make sure they behave. If a student is caught
promoting or practicing ideas not supporting the GOB, then
the teacher will be blamed and sometimes fired. Local
judges must rule in accordance with GOB orders or lose
their job. Bosses who do not fire their employees when so
ordered by the GOB risk losing their own jobs. One
activist presented the medical application he received when
he went to the doctor. The application, to be filled out
by patients before their appointment, did not concern
itself with the patient's health. Rather, all the
questions centered on the patient's personal life and
activities, such as "What countries have you been to?",
"What was the reason for the trip?", and "Are you a member
of a political party?"


12. (C) More alarming, these pro-democracy activists said
their parties are losing members, as most people are tired
of protesting without seeing any change. These leaders
feel most Belarusians believe no alternative to Lukashenko
exists, and that little will ever change in Belarus. The
party members criticized the national opposition leaders
for wasting all their money on pointless seminars, which
they viewed as helpful, but attended by only the "elite" of
the parties.


Comment
--------------


13. (C) Unfortunately, the situation in these three cities
appears typical of that across Belarus, and mirrors what
Emboffs saw earlier this summer in Molodechno and Grodno
(reftels). Part of the opposition's doldrums is that they
are currently between election campaigns. Borisov's pro-
democracy forces, in particular, were active and impressive
during the 2004 parliamentary campaign. Hope remains that
their activities and morale will improve once a single
opposition candidate is chosen and the opposition starts
challenging Lukashenko for the presidency. However, much
of the current malaise is also a reflection of the growing
hopelessness of their situation. After years of struggle
the opposition appears no closer to achieving democracy.
Over the past 12 months especially the GOB has increased
its repressive acts, so much of the opposition now
struggles to feed their families, let alone fight for
democracy. It is uncertain whether they can rally their
forces for the 2006 presidential campaign.


PHLIPOT