MOZAMBIQUE: HONEYMOON OVER FOR GUEBUZA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000911

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
STATE FOR INR - SWEIGERT AND AF/S - HTREGER
NSC FOR CCOURVILLE
MCC FOR SGAULL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MZ ENRG
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: HONEYMOON OVER FOR GUEBUZA

REF: MAPUTO 866
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) Public support for the Guebuza government appears to
be waning as a result of transportation price increases and
perceived lack of focus and real action by his government.
President Guebuza called a special, three-day extended
Council of Ministers meeting with leaders from his government
to address issues of poor performance. Just days after the
meeting, reports that Prime Minister Luisa Diogo had offered
to resign surfaced in the local press. Both Guebuza and
Diogo denied the reports. Demonstrations against rising
minibus fares continue in Maputo and Gaza provinces. End
Summary.

Guebuza's Call for Action
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2. (SBU) On July 8 - 10, President Guebuza held a special
three-day expanded Council of Ministers meeting attended by
ministers, deputy ministers, provincial governors, and
permanent secretaries, as well as senior parliamentarians and
leading figures in the Frelimo party at the national and
provincial level. Press reports indicate Guebuza called the
meeting in an attempt to impose more discipline on his new
administration, which has been the target of increased
criticism over the last few months due to its perceived lack
of direction and inability to meet expectations of change.


3. (SBU) During his opening statement, Guebuza appealed for a
change in attitude from his government, once again calling on
leaders to develop strategies to fight against obstacles to
development (i.e. apathy, red tape, corruption and crime).
He stated it was not enough to just to show up to work on
time, but instead demanded that his government deliver
quality and results. Guebuza voiced criticism over the lack
of progress towards development targets achieved by
provincial governments, noting in some cases that less than
50 percent of objectives, such as simplifying business
licensing procedures, improving quality of public services,
and combating crime, had been met. Though Guebuza fell short
of publicly naming those governors who performed well below
standard, most observers agree the reference was to Carvalho
Muaria of Zambezia, Lazaro Mathe of Cabo Delgado, Djalma
Lourenco of Gaza, and Filipe Paunde of Nampula. (Comment:
Though some suspect these four may be on their way out,
others believe that Guebuza may adopt a "wait and see"
approach, holding out a bit longer before making changes at
the provincial level. End Comment.)


4. (SBU) Opposition Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama cited
Guebuza's remarks as proof that his criticisms of the GRM
were correct, but did not offer any alternative proposals.
Prime Minister Offers Her Resignation...Or Not?

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5. (SBU) On July 13, in the wake of the expanded ministerial
meeting, several local dailies carried stories claiming Prime
Minister Luisa Diogo had offered her resignation. Both Diogo
and Guebuza were quick to deny the claims with Diogo stating
during a radio interview that the report was a lie "in very
bad taste." Others have described the reports as an attack
aimed at destabilizing the Guebuza government. The media
alleged Diogo was unhappy over the growing influence of
Minister of Planning and Development Aiuba Cuerenia, who is
relatively young and inexperienced, but maintains close ties
to Guebuza. Cuerenia served as the Finance Secretary for the
Frelimo party prior to taking his post as Minister.
(Comment: It has long been rumored that Diogo was not
Guebuza's choice for Prime Minister, but that pressure from
the Chissano camp within Frelimo demanded she retain the
post. Sources indicate that though there was no offer of
resignation from Diogo, she did express displeasure at being
sidelined by Minister Cuerenia at a recent planning meeting
that she was to chair in Chimoio, the capital of Manica
province. End Comment.)

The View on the Street
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6. (SBU) Though Guebuza's populist approach to government
may have garnered initial support from the Mozambican
population, his popularity now appears to be waning at least
temporarily. In their eyes, the high expectations set during
his campaign and early months in office have not been met.
Some of the discontent is also likely linked to
dissatisfaction among those, principally mid-level public
servants, who are feeling the crunch of tighter controls
within some ministries, including stricter vehicle and cell
phone policies and limitations on international travel. A
flurry of critical text phone messages (SMS) have been flying
around town recently, some claiming that if the election were
held today, Guebuza would lose. (Comment: This claim seems
exaggerated. End Comment.)


7. (SBU) Rising transportation costs resulting from increased
fuel prices have compounded the negative image of Guebuza's
government (reftel). Residents in the provinces of Gaza and
Maputo continue to protest increased fares charged by minibus
taxis (known as "chapas") that serve as the primary form of
transportation for a large majority of Mozambicans. Fares
have increased more than 87 percent since June. The fare
hike threatens the well-being of many Mozambicans who already
spend a large portion of their monthly income on mini-bus
fares to work and school. Reportedly at the insistence of
Frelimo party officials, the GRM recently took steps to ease
the economic pressure by putting two commuter trains in
service to Maputo, however it is still too early to tell the
impact this move will have.

Comment
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8. (C) Turning the GRM around is proving more difficult than
perhaps Guebuza expected. Targets for action in the first
100 days were underachieved, as almost an entirely new group
of ministers and governors tried to make their way up the
learning curve. Many ministries are still being
restructured, and key national directors have still not been
appointed. The resulting uncertainty has made real change
difficult to achieve. The public has begun to voice its
discontent, and Guebuza's popularity is sliding. Guebuza's
honeymoon appears to be over, and some lower profile
ministers and vice ministers may see their jobs in jeopardy.
End Comment.
La Lime