RENAMO TO APPEAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000051

SIPDIS
FOR AF/S
DEPT PASS TO MCC WASHINGTON DC
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2010
TAGS: KDEM MZ PGOV PREL RENAMO
SUBJECT: RENAMO TO APPEAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS TO
CONSTITUTIONAL COUNCIL

REF: 04 MAPUTO 1645 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Classified by Charge James Dudley, Reason 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: After the CNE denied its
challenge to the election results, RENAMO will appeal to the
Constitutional Council. Party elections director Eduardo
Namburete told Charge that Dhlakama would stop emphasizing
his (comment: unrealistic) belief that he had won the
presidential election and would appeal only the legislative
election results. If the Council rejects the appeal out of
hand, RENAMO will refuse to take its seats in the National
Assembly. Charge encouraged the party to reconsider and
responded to claims that RENAMO might not be able to control
its unhappy public by saying that any resort to violence
would be irresponsible. Namburete,s estimate that fraud
cost RENAMO 35-40 seats in the Assembly is wildly
unrealistic. Post believes that the Council will deny
RENAMO,s appeal and that RENAMO will in the end take its
seats in the Assembly. End Summary and Comment.


2. (SBU) On January 5, the National Elections Commission
(CNE) denied RENAMO,s challenge to the results of the
December general elections as expected. On January 6, RENAMO
elections director Eduardo Namburete and two colleagues
called on the Charge and econ/pol section head to explain
RENAMO,s plan to make its last appeal, to the Constitutional
Council, on January 7. The meeting was part of the
delegation,s visits with several embassies on instructions
from RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama. The Council must respond
to RENAMO's claim within five days of submission, though it
has up to 40 days from the date the election results were
announced (Dec. 21) to announce its overall verdict on the
elections.


3. (SBU) Namburete reported that Dhlakama still believes that
he won the race for president, but "in the interests of
peace," and recognizing that international and domestic
observers believed otherwise, had decided to stop emphasizing
this and would have the party appeal only the legislative
elections. Namburete estimated that fraud had cost the party
35-40 seats in the National Assembly. If the Council threw
out the claims "without comment," as he said the CNE had
done, RENAMO would refuse to take its seats in the Assembly
and would protest peacefully.


4. (SBU) Namburete argued that returning to Parliament would
be tantamount to accepting the validity of the elections,
something that RENAMO could not do. He said that after the
1999 elections (note: which were much closer, and also marred
by allegations of fraud) RENAMO played along at the urging of
the international community and returned to Parliament to
avoid an open rupture with FRELIMO. Namburete explained that
this tactic had gotten the party nowhere. He promised that
RENAMO would urge all of its members to act in accordance
with the law in the event the Council rejected its claims,
but warned that the party would have difficulty controlling
"the people."


5. (SBU) Namburete gave the impression that he expected some
of the smaller party representatives who had won seven seats
in coalition with RENAMO to take their seats. He also
indicated that some or all of these representatives could be
convinced to vote with FRELIMO; if all did, FRELIMO would be
able to change the Constitution, a situation that Namburete
described as meaning a return to a one-party dictatorship.


6. (SBU) The Charge welcomed the news that Dhlakama would
deemphasize his belief that irregularities had prevented him
from winning the presidency. He expressed doubt about
RENAMO,s estimate of the number of seats being affected and
encouraged the party to release to the press its own parallel
count and its analysis that irregularities had cost it 35-40
seats. He urged Namburete and RENAMO to reconsider the
threat to boycott the Assembly, noting that RENAMO would be
giving up its voice on legislation. Econ/Pol section head
added that voters who elected RENAMO,s 83 members of the
Assembly might also feel that the party was not representing
them. Charge emphasized that any resort to violence in
demonstrations or elsewhere would be irresponsible.


7. (C) Comment: The Constitutional Council is responsive to
FRELIMO and likely will reject most, and possibly all, of
RENAMO's claims, many of which are implausible. Although
Namburete said the CNE rejected RENAMO,s claims without
comment, press reports indicate that the CNE did throw out
some of the most implausible vote tally sheets and referred
some for possible prosecution. Namburete's estimate that
RENAMO should have received 35-40 additional seats, almost
enough to give it control of the Assembly, is a fantasy.
Observer missions and independent journalists have charged
that irregularities likely increased FRELIMO,s
representation in the Assembly, but none has said that this
affected more than a few seats.


8. (C) Comment continued: Post doubts that RENAMO will carry
out the threat to boycott the Assembly; it did not do so
after the much closer 1999 elections despite making a similar
threat. If the party,s deputies do not take their seats
within 45 days of the opening of the Assembly, they will lose
their salaries and benefits and the party will lose financial
benefits. The argument that the party might not be able to
control unhappy supporters also seems implausible, as much of
RENAMO,s base apparently did not even bother to vote. On
January 9, RENAMO will hold a meeting of its central
committee and a rally in its stronghold of Beira. This
should shed some light on Dhlakama,s and the party,s
strategy for responding to their poor electoral showing. End
Comment.
DUDLEY