MOZAMBIQUE: A/S NEWMAN MEETING WITH PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000321

SIPDIS
AF/S FOR HTREGER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD KPKO MARR MASS EINV MZ ZI
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: A/S NEWMAN MEETING WITH PRESIDENT
GUEBUZA ADVISOR, MINISTER MADEIRA

REF: MAPUTO 310
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Visiting Assistant Secretary for African
Affairs Constance Newman, accompanied by the Ambassador, met
with Mozambique's Minister in the Presidency for Diplomatic
Affairs, Francisco Madeira, March 2. Minister Madeira
received A/S Newman immediately after returning from a visit
to Zimbabwe. Madeira emphasized how difficult it is to get
Mugabe to respond to outside pressure, and, while saying
Mozambique wanted its neighbor to change, cited the
importance to Mozambique of remaining on good terms with
Harare. A/S Newman and Madeira also discussed Mozambique's
interest in peacekeeping missions and its lack of interest
for now in SACU membership. End Summary.

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ZIMBABWE
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2. (C) Madeira described Zimbabwe as "a very delicate
problem" for his government. The Zimbabweans are "very
sensitive to advice," he told A/S Newman, and contend that
they don't need any. When asked how they explain to their
people the problems with their economy such as massive
inflation, he said they blame the United States and the EU,
replied Madeira, for imposing sanctions on the country.
However, the government feels that it has found a way out of
the crisis. It has a "good" governor of the Central Bank,
according to Madeira, and with him the regime feels it is on
the right path. And criticism by the people appears to be
less acute, he continued -- for now "they are willing to live
with Mugabe."


3. (C) Zimbabwe is a delicate issue, Madeira explained,
because his country is not only Zimbabwe's neighbor, but, in
some measure, it is also dependent on Zimbabwe's economy.
Problems in Zimbabwe affect the central region of Mozambique
-- particularly Beira and its port, through which a
significant amount of Zimbabwean trade passes. Lamenting
that his country suffered from Zimbabwe's wrong policies,
Madeira said Mozambique endured because "we cannot afford to
have unfriendly relations across our borders." He said his
government had little power to sway Zimbabwe's policies.
When the Assistant Secretary asked what would happen if all
of Zimbabwe's neighbors joined together to pressure Mugabe,
Madeira indicated that this had been tried before. He
reported that in 2001 a delegation from the region had met
with Mugabe to urge him to moderate his policies, but to no
avail. He listened, but that was all. One can only advise
Mugabe when he is ready to accept advice, said Madeira.
Otherwise, "the more you criticize, the more he stigmatizes
you."


4. (C) "Why doesn't the government in Harare open the country
to outside observers for the Parliamentary election?" Ms.
Newman pressed. After all, ZANU is in a strong position
versus the opposition. Why not follow SADC principles? She
warned Madeira that it would be very hard for the G8 to
ignore the way Zimbabwe handled the election. The
Zimbabweans believe that they have the right to choose who
observes the elections, Madeira responded. SADC
representatives have been invited, along with representatives
from other African countries, Latin America, and Russia. The
Assistant Secretary asked why not invite observers from the
European Union or the Carter Center if the country really had
nothing to hide. Nodding, Madeira agreed, saying that his
government "wants our neighbor to change, but we don't want
to lose our neighbor."

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OTHER ISSUES
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5. (C) Ms. Newman inquired into Mozambican intentions toward
joining the Southern African Customs Union, SACU. For the
time being the Mozambican leadership had little interest,
Madeira answered. Customs duties were an important revenue
source and, beyond this, there was a residual psychological
stigma in many peoples' minds attached to dealing with South
Africa, dating from the apartheid period, that blocked
joining SACU. But Mozambique strongly welcomed South African
investment in its economy, and had begun to request
investment linked with managerial training. Would this be
similar to the black empowerment policies of the Mbeki
government?, the Assistant Secretary wondered. No, Madeira
said, such empowerment regulations had not been codified, but
Mozambique would be looking for investors who helped
Mozambicans beyond just providing jobs.


6. (C) On peacekeeping, Madeira echoed what others had told
the Assistant Secretary of Mozambican willingness to engage
in more peacekeeping missions, saying "the real problem is
money." The government was working to professionalize the
army, and peacekeeping duties helped this by exposing
Mozambican soldiers to other peacekeeping forces. But
President Guebuza was so committed to keeping his campaign
promises on fighting poverty and other domestic problems that
"there is not a cent to spare for peacekeeping." A/S Newman
indicated that for Darfur, the U.S. and the EU between them
were providing lift and equipment.
LALIME