GOB DECIDES NOT TO PUNISH OPPOSITION SOCIETY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000501

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BA
SUBJECT: GOB DECIDES NOT TO PUNISH OPPOSITION SOCIETY

REF: MANAMA 471

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

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Summary
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1. (SBU) The GOB decided April 5 not to take legal action
against leading Shi'a opposition political society Al Wifaq
for its role in organizing a March 25 demonstration that was
banned by the government. Minister of Social Affairs Dr.
Fatima Al Belooshi met with Al Wifaq's leadership and
reiterated that they should abide by the law (i.e., no more
unauthorized demonstrations),but did not order a temporary
closure of the society as some had expected. The latest
confrontation between the GOB and the opposition shows that
the two sides, while maneuvering for tactical advantage,
recognize the value of pulling back from more serious
confrontation.

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Peaceful demonstration organized without GOB permission
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2. (SBU) On March 25 leading Shi'a opposition political
society Al Wifaq defied the Ministry of Interior's decision
to refuse to permit a demonstration and led several thousand
people in a rally calling for constitutional reforms. The
GOB did not prevent the demonstration, but subsequently
warned that it might take legal action against Al Wifaq, and
many predicted that the society would be closed for 45 days.
On March 28, an Al Wifaq representative announced that the
society removed all of its documents from its premises as a
precautionary measure.

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GOB decides not to punish Al Wifaq
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3. (C) Minister of Social Affairs Dr. Fatima Al Belooshi met
with four of Al Wifaq's leaders April 5 to discuss the
society's role in organizing the demonstration. According to
Embassy contacts, the tone of the meeting was amicable and
she told them that no action would be taken against Al Wifaq.
She stated, however, that the society should keep a lower
profile in the coming months and she reiterated to them that
they should abide by the law and respect government
decisions.

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Parliament condemns illegal demonstration
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4. (SBU) On March 28, the Shura Council issued a statement
criticizing Al Wifaq for violating the law. On March 29, the
Council of Representatives (COR) also issued a statement
condemning Al Wifaq. The COR statement was an initiative of
seven deputies from the Al Asala (Salafi),Al Minbar (Muslim
Brotherhood),and independent (pro-government) blocs.
Numerous Shi'a representatives spoke passionately against the
statement, but they were outnumbered by those who supported
it.

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Shi'a clerics call for moderation
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5. (SBU) In his April 1 Friday prayer sermon, leading Shi'a
cleric Sheikh Issa Qassem said that both the GOB and the
opposition should refrain from actions that would escalate
the tension between them. He noted that he did not call for
participation in the rally because he wanted to maintain
bridges between the government and the people. He added that
he did not think the ban on the demonstration was fair and
warned that closing Al Wifaq would only deepen the political
crisis in the country. Al Wifaq President and prominent
cleric Sheikh Ali Salman confirmed in his Friday prayer
sermon that the opposition was fully committed to promoting
goals that everyone shares including stability, security, and
economic prosperity.

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Iran -- not Al Wifaq -- may be the GOB's concern
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6. (C) NDI representative Fawzi Guleid told PolOff that
several MPs met with the Minister of Interior recently to
express their concern about the GOB's response to the Al
Wifaq rally. The minister replied that, although it may have
appeared that the government was trying to restrain Al Wifaq,
it was really targeting a small portion of the protesters
whose main alliance is with Iran. Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs Mohammed Abdul Ghaffar, in a conversation
with the Ambassador, also linked the decision to deny a
permit for the demonstration to continuing concerns about
Iranian links to Shi'a oppositionists in Bahrain.

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Comment
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7. (C) We can expect to see more maneuvering between the
Shi'a oppositionists and the government in the coming months,
and indeed until the parliamentary elections in 2006. The
Shi'a oppositionists, prodded by more extreme elements in the
ranks, will continue to challenge the government. The
government, influenced by traditional concerns about Shi'a
activism and political instability, will push back. The
conciliatory resolution of this case suggests that, for now,
the leadership on both sides recognizes the advantage of
pulling back from a more serious confrontation.
MONROE