OPPOSITION GROUP DEFIES GOB ORDERS, HOLDS PEACEFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000471

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BA
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION GROUP DEFIES GOB ORDERS, HOLDS PEACEFUL
DEMONSTRATION

REF: MANAMA 416

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

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Summary
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1. (C) On March 25, leading Shi'a opposition political
society Al Wifaq defied the Ministry of Interior's decision
to refuse to permit a demonstration and led several thousand
people in a rally calling for constitutional reforms. In a
speech at the event, Al Wifaq President Sheikh Ali Salman
stressed the importance of national unity and reconciliation.
There were no reports of confrontations between the light
security presence and protesters. Following the
demonstration, the GOB warned that it may take action against
Al Wifaq, and many are predicting that the society could be
shut down for 45 days. The arguments of the supporters and
defenders of Al Wifaq highlight the perceived trade-off
between freedom of expression and security and stability.
End Summary.

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Protesters defy GOB, demonstrate peacefully
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2. (SBU) On March 25, thousands of people demonstrated
peacefully in the streets of the island of Sitra, immediately
south of Manama, in response to leading Shi'a opposition
group Al Wifaq's call for constitutional reform.
Pro-government newspapers estimated there were 5-7,000
participants in the event, while Al Wifaq members claimed
there were anywhere from 30-100,000 people in attendance.
Most reasonable guesses cite some 20-30,000 people.
Participants commented that the presence of the security
forces was light and they did not try to prevent the
demonstration from taking place. There were no reports of
any clashes or confrontations.


3. (SBU) The demonstration occurred following last-minute
jockeying between the Ministry of Interior and Al Wifaq. The
Ministry of Interior March 24 turned down Al Wifaq's request
to hold the rally, saying that the application had not been
signed by the minimum number of Sitra residents. Soon
afterwards, the Minister of Islamic Affairs and Al Wifaq
leaders met in an attempt to find a compromise. Despite a
press report to the contrary, the parties did not find middle
ground, and the GOB stood by its refusal to approve the
application, citing, in addition to the insufficient number
of Sitra residents' signatures on the application, security
threats in the region as its reasons for blocking the event.

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Red and white the colors of the day
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4. (SBU) In his speech at the event and in similar
statements in the days leading up to it, Al Wifaq President
Sheikh Ali Salman stressed the importance of national unity
and reconciliation. Prior to the protest, in response to the
government's public statements of alarm about the Ashura
celebrations in mid-February, Salman urged participants to
refrain from carrying any foreign flags, photos or slogans.
(Note: The GOB reacted strongly to the many photos of
Khomeini, Khamenei, and Nasrallah, and the occasional
Hizballah flag, carried or displayed by Ashura celebrants
(reftel and previous). End Note.) Taking a page out of the
book of Lebanese opposition protesters, the dominant colors
of the march were the red and white of the Bahraini flag.
Salman said at the rally that Al Wifaq had chosen Sitra as
the site of the event because it was where King Hamad had
announced his reconciliation and reform program and invited
Bahraini exiles to return to the country in the late 1990's.


5. (SBU) Following the rally, the Minister of Interior
announced that the GOB would evaluate whether Al Wifaq's
moves violated the 1989 Societies Law. The Minister of
Social Affairs, who is responsible for the registration of
societies, said she was waiting for the Interior report
before deciding whether to take administrative action against
Al Wifaq. The GOB could refer the case to the public
prosecutor for legal action. The Cabinet issued a statement
March 27 rejecting the "misuse of freedom of expression"
through illegal rallies and sit-ins, and stated that abuses
would be punished. The statement stressed the need to comply
with the constitution, laws, and regulations. Rumors are
circulating in the press that the government is considering
how to respond to the demonstration, and is contemplating
three options: (a) closing Al Wifaq for 45 days; (b)
mandating the replacement of the board of directors; or (c)
permanently dissolving the organization. A 45-day closure
appears most likely.

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Participants declare focus on national unity
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6. (C) Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told EmbOff that
his society made every effort to ensure the protest was
peaceful and to show that the constitution is a national
political issue and not a sectarian one. Protesters waved
Bahraini flags throughout the event. Al Qari said he heard
demonstrators urging one another not to retaliate if the
security forces tried to disperse the crowd. Aziz Abul, an
opposition leader advocating constitutional reform, stressed
to EmbOff that although Al Wifaq disagreed with the GOB's
decision not to approve the rally, it tried to respect the
government and there was no attempt to embarrass or offend
GOB officials or political groups. He noted that the event
took place a week before the April 1-3 Formula One races and
was held in a location far from high traffic areas and places
where international visitors would congregate. Abul
commented that the demonstration was important to national
security as it gave people a peaceful way to voice their
frustrations.


7. (SBU) In his Friday prayer sermon just hours before the
demonstration on March 25, prominent Shi'a cleric Sheikh Issa
Qassem reiterated the right of the people to protest and
hoped there would be an open dialogue between the GOB and the
opposition. He stressed the importance of national unity and
urged people to remember that Bahrainis share one religion,
one country they love, and one future. Shi'a Sheikh Hussain
Najati said in his Friday sermon that it would be very
difficult to ask people to stop holding demonstrations if the
government continued to refuse to deal with the opposition's
political concerns.

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Claims that demonstration threatens security
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8. (SBU) On March 25, six societies (four Sunni and two
mixed Sunni/Shi'a) ran a full page advertisement in all
Bahraini daily papers calling for a cancellation of the rally
and warning that it could lead to a political and economic
crisis. One group applied to hold a counter demonstration in
the Sunni stronghold of Muharraq, but the Minister of
Interior refused to issue a permit.


9. (SBU) Numerous Sunni clerics spoke out against the
demonstration. Salafi MP Sheikh Ali Mattar announced in his
sermon that rallies are contrary to Shari'a law as they
threaten public safety. Sheikh Juma Tawfeeq said there was
great danger in using freedom of expression to reinforce the
interests of one sect. Sheikh Ebrahim Busandal acknowledged
that protesting is a right protected by the constitution, but
recommended that Bahrain's political societies take issues to
parliament and not to the street.

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Media reaction
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10. (SBU) Columnists' reactions to the demonstration were
mixed. In Akhbar Al Khaleej, Sameera Rajab accused Al Wifaq
of sectarianism and doubted that participants who held
Bahraini flags were genuinely loyal to the country. Radhi Al
Sammak wrote that in choosing Sitra as the event location, Al
Wifaq sent the wrong message to the GOB as it was the site of
some of the fiercest clashes between Shi'a and security
forces in the 1990s. Sawsan Al Shaer praised Al Wifaq for
organizing a disciplined rally in a non-commercial area and
for encouraging participants to hold Bahraini flags and
support national unity. She commented that the rally was a
constitutional right and should not have been banned, but
lauded the security forces for their self-restraint in
dealing with the protesters.

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Comment


11. (C) The demonstration, and the government's reaction to
it, highlight a contrast in perspectives that we expect to
hear more about as this and other democratization issues
develop -- the perceived trade-off between freedom of
expression and security and stability. Government officials
and their defenders correctly point out that democracy is
relatively new to Bahrain -- the first elections in thirty
years were held less than three years ago -- and that Bahrain
is undergoing a normal process of maturation. Oppositionists
complain that the King took many important steps to open up
society and take into account Bahrain's Shi'a citizens, but
say that this process stalled after the 2002 elections.
Addressing the opposition's concerns through legal or
administrative means will not solve what is at its core a
political problem. Neither side has put itself into a corner
yet on the issue of constitutional reform, and there is still
an opportunity to find common ground. But thus far, neither
side has demonstrated the leadership or initiative to move to
resolve the issue in a mutually satisfactory way.
MONROE