Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MANAMA251
2005-02-23 15:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN, TERRORISM

Tags:  MARR MOPS PREL ASEC PTER BA IZ IR LE SY 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000251 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2015
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL ASEC PTER BA IZ IR LE SY
SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN, TERRORISM
WITH CROWN PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000251

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2015
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL ASEC PTER BA IZ IR LE SY
SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN, TERRORISM
WITH CROWN PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER

Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid discussed with
Crown Prince Salman and Defense Minister Shaikh Khalifa in
separate meetings February 16 the situation in Iraq following
the elections; Iran and its nuclear program; Lebanon and
Syria; the threat of terrorism in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait; Israeli-Palestinians relations; and reform in the
Arab world. The Crown Prince stated that it was now up to
Iraqis to develop a system that is stable and sustainable.
He noted that Bahrain had previously offered to send a ship
to the northern Gulf, and if the Iraqi government called for
regional support, Bahrain "would be involved." He warned
that military action against Iran could serve to unify the
different trends within the country and bring danger to
countries of the region. He commented that it appeared Syria
was responsible for the February 14 assassination of former
Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri. Shaikh Khalifa said that
Bahrain closely monitored its domestic extremists and
volunteered that Bahrain hoped to derive lessons learned from
the Kuwaiti investigative file on the recent clashes with
terrorists there. The Crown Prince reiterated a now familiar
litany of complaints about Saudi economic pressure on
Bahrain. He was hopeful on the prospects for progress
between Israel and the Palestinians and for reform in the
Arab world. End Summary.

--------------
A Stable, Sustainable Political System
--------------


2. (C) CENTCOM Commander General Abizaid opened his February
16 meetings with Crown Prince Salman and Defense Minister
General Shaikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa with briefings on
the situation in Iraq, which he had recently visited. The
Crown Prince and Defense Minister were very interested in the
presentation, in particular on the security situation and the

prospects for participation by all Iraqi factions in the
government and drafting the constitution. The Crown Prince
said that it was now up to Iraqis to develop a political
system that is stable and sustainable, and this would not be
quick or easy. On forming a government, the Defense Minister
said he wanted to be sure Iraqi Shia are "real Iraqis" and
not too close to Iran. He hoped that the Shia would
cooperate with Sunnis and others in Iraq. Abizaid affirmed
that U.S. forces would remain in Iraq, but the total numbers
would drop. The Crown Prince mentioned that Bahrain
previously had offered to deploy a ship to the northern Gulf
area. If the new Iraqi government called for regional
support, he said that Bahrain would be involved.

--------------
Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program
--------------


3. (C) The Crown Prince stated he believes Iran has WMD and
a national nuclear weapons program that is likely spread
throughout the country, protecting it from a preemptive
strike. He warned against military action against Iran,
which would serve as a unifying event for the different
trends within the country. Such a move would also be very
dangerous for the countries of the region. He recommended
that the EU-3 continue their negotiations with Iran while the
international community applies diplomatic pressure on Iran
to scrap its weapons program. Abizaid said he worries that
Iran misinterprets the U.S. military posture in the region,
believing that we are overextended. He said the United
States is well-positioned, and it was silly for Iran to
believe otherwise.

--------------
Likely Syrian Connection in Hariri Murder
--------------


4. (C) The Crown Prince and Defense Minister both raised the
February 14 assassination of former Lebanese PM Hariri. The
Crown Prince commented that Syria seemed to be responsible,
saying the quantity of explosives used was too much for some
unknown group to obtain. The Ambassador stated that because
of its military presence in Lebanon, Syrian was responsible
for security. Pressure would now grow for Syria to withdraw
from Lebanon, per UNSCR 1559.

--------------
Bahrain One Step Ahead of Extremists
--------------


5. (C) Abizaid noted his concern that as Iraq stabilizes,
extremists could attempt to enter other regional countries,
and he urged the Bahraini government to be vigilant. The
Crown Prince acknowledged there could be spillover from Iraq,
but that Bahrain so far has contained the threat. He
admitted that no one can say an attack could not happen in
Bahrain, but said that the GOB was active in denying any
haven to extremists. He noted that an additional move
related to management of the Bahrain National Security Agency
was still needed to improve its capability, but did not
elaborate. The Defense Minister said that Bahrain had
experienced "one small incident," presumably a reference to
the attack planning by the six Bahrainis arrested in June
2004, but that the intelligence service is watching them and
others closely. He stated that the GOB stays one step ahead
of the extremists. "We know who the problems are and we
watch these people closely," he stated.


6. (C) The Crown Prince noted that Saudi Arabia continued to
apply pressure on Bahrain regarding the U.S.-Bahrain free
trade agreement (FTA). The SAG had cut its exports of sand
to Bahrain, which is used for production of cement. Saudi
Arabia had ended its grant to Bahrain of 50,000 barrels of
oil per day. It is trying to stop development of a natural
gas pipeline from Qatar to Bahrain and Kuwait. Additionally,
Saudi Arabia allotted a smaller plot of land for use by
Bahraini pilgrims making the Hajj to Mecca in January.
(Note: This was confirmed by a Bahraini who participated in
the Hajj this year; the Bahraini said that as a result,
conditions were much more crowded this year for Bahraini
Hajjis. End Note.) Abizaid replied that the rigidity
inherent in the Saudi system caused him to be less optimistic
about the future of the country. The Defense Minister said
that the Saudi royal family is the only institution capable
of holding the country together. Abizaid replied that the
Saud family needs a program of reform to change the
perception that the royal family is robbing the country of
its wealth.

--------------
Terror in the Region
--------------


7. (C) General Abizaid stated that Al Qaida was getting
desperate and may try to carry out a spectacular attack on
the oil infrastructure in the Gulf. Al Qaida is under
pressure in the border region of Pakistan. In response to
the Crown Prince's question, Abizaid said that President
Musharraf is doing his best, but he has faced some problems
at the mid-levels of the army and security forces, which have
been infiltrated by those sympathetic to extremists. The
Crown Prince commented that one of the reasons the Salafi
movement has been able to attract supporters is that it
paints the world in very simple, black and white, good and
evil, terms. The movement needs to be shut down. The
Defense Minister said that people are turning away from Al
Qaida and it will "vanish" in a few years.


8. (C) In response to the General's question, the Defense
Minister said that Kuwaiti security forces had performed well
in moving against extremists there. Bahrain had requested a
copy of the Kuwaiti investigative report in order to learn
from Kuwait's actions. He said the regional countries must
promote information sharing and training to combat terrorism
more effectively. Abizaid noted that we do not have a good
handle on financial flows from the Gulf region to terrorists
and proposed organizing a conference dealing specifically
with terrorism financing.

--------------
Hopeful for Progress on Peace, Reform
--------------


9. (C) The Crown Prince stated that he was seeing positive
signs in relations between Israel and the Palestinians, and
he hoped there would be further progress. He continued that
many in the Arab world had now recognized the need for
reform, including in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. He
said that support for moderation in the Arab world was
growing.


10. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.
MONROE