SENIOR BAHRAIN OFFICIAL ARTICULATES CONCERNS RE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 001907

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BA OFFICIALS REGION POL
SUBJECT: SENIOR BAHRAIN OFFICIAL ARTICULATES CONCERNS RE
REGIONAL SHIA AGENDA


Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) During a December 26 meeting with the Ambassador,
Minister of Industry and Commerce (and confidant of the King)
Hassan Fakhro asked about the recent elections in Iraq. When
the Ambassador responded by discussing the many positive
aspects of the elections, including the overall large turnout
and strong participation by Sunnis, Fakhro observed that so
many questions about irregularities have been raised in so
many quarters, including by the Iraqi election commission
itself, that it seems unlikely these allegations are coming
out of thin air with no foundation at all. And the
allegations contribute to continuing questions and concerns
about Shia intentions in Iraq.


2. (C) The Shia actions in Iraq, Fakhro stated, are also
fueling concerns about broader Shia goals in the region. He
said that the bottom line for Shia in Iraq, Lebanon and
Bahrain is that they have the majority of the population and
thus should take command. He didn't blame them for wanting
to take control; they do have some legitimate grievances. In
the Islamic world as a whole, they only constitute 10 percent
of all Moslems and in many places are considered non-Moslems.
Discrimination against Shia in Iraq began back in the 1920s,
when the British relied heavily on Sunnis. Shia in Bahrain
and Lebanon have faced problems.


3. (C) The Shia response, Fakhro maintained, has been a
coordinated effort to increase their numbers. During his
lifetime, he said, he has seen a dramatic change in the
sectarian composition in Bahrain. In 1938, Shia comprised
just 22 percent of the population. The percentage has crept
up one percent or more every year, the result of a deliberate
effort to encourage large families. A similar population
dynamic is taking place in Lebanon. He repeated that he took
the point that the Shia have some legitimate grievances, but
there is also an agenda to maximize numbers, with the
ultimate aim in certain countries of becoming a majority and
using that majority to assume control.


4. (C) He said that concerns about the broader Shia agenda in
the region add to apprehensions about Iran and its
intentions. While ruling out a military solution, he
stressed that "we really have to find an effective way to
contain Iran." He stated his concern that a strong Shia
presence in Iraq will only lead to a stronger and more vocal
Iran, which will put the U.S. and its friends in the region
under pressure and in a corner. "And can you imagine what
would happen if Iran gets nuclear weapons?"


5. (C) Comment: What is striking about Hassan Fakhro's
comments is that he is not a Sunni extremist with an
anti-Shia agenda. He is a Western-oriented official who was
educated in the U.K., worked for an American oil company in
the U.S., and is married to a British woman. He is a
moderate senior official who has been involved in the effort
to bring the leading Shia opposition society -- Al-Wifaq --
into the political system. But he reflects an apprehension
among many mainstream Sunnis in Bahrain about the ultimate
Shia agenda, a concern fueled by Shia gains in Iraq,
provocative rhetoric from new Iranian President Ahmadinejad,
and aggressive tactics by Shia activists in Bahrain who are
rejecting Al-Wifaq's expected decision to participate in the
2006 parliamentary elections and are taking to the streets to
voice their complaints against the government. The
government will try to walk a fine line in the coming months
as it encourages Shia to participate in the 2006 elections
while dealing with the "provocations" of Shia activists and
the apprehensions of many Sunni in Bahrain about the
long-term goals of the majority Shia population.
MONROE