Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MANAMA1860
2005-12-19 12:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LEADING SHIA OPPOSITION

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM BA OFFICIALS POL REFORM 
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191229Z Dec 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 001860 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BA OFFICIALS POL REFORM
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LEADING SHIA OPPOSITION
LEADER SHAIKH ALI SALMAN


Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 001860

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BA OFFICIALS POL REFORM
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LEADING SHIA OPPOSITION
LEADER SHAIKH ALI SALMAN


Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d)

- - - -
SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a December 14 meeting with the Ambassador, Al-Wifaq
President Shaikh Ali Salman stated that support within
Al-Wifaq to end its boycott and participate in the 2006
parliamentary elections was strong, and that he expected
Al-Wifaq to win a maximum of 15 out of 40 seats in the
Council of Representatives. Despite Al-Wifaq's apparent
decision to compete (final decision will be made in January),
Shaikh Ali made it clear that Al-Wifaq remains mistrustful of
the government's intentions and frustrated over lack of
movement on key concerns such as electoral constituencies
that favor Sunni over Shia. He denied that Iran had any
political influence over Al-Wifaq, maintaining that ties were
limited to religious connections. He praised Bahrain for its
tolerance towards all religions, and said Al-Wifaq endorsed
Bahrain's strong relations with the U.S. He expressed
concern over how to deal with Shia activists, who have broken
from Al-Wifaq over its decision to register as a political
society, but stated that they have a genuine concern
regarding unemployment. He acknowledged, at the same time,
that he did not know much about the Crown Prince's labor
reform proposals, which are focused on the very problem of
unemployment that so concerns Shia.

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FIRST AMBASSADOR MEETING SINCE ELECTION BOYCOTT DECISION
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2. (C) The Ambassador met for 90 minutes December 14 with
Al-Wifaq National Islamic Society President Shaikh Ali
Salman. This meeting marked the first time that a U.S.
Ambassador had met with the head of the leading opposition
political society since Al-Wifaq decided to boycott the 2002
parliamentary elections. Although the meeting, which was
brokered by leading Shia businessman and Al-Wifaq member
Faisal Jawad, had been planned for some time, it was
coincidentally held on the day that the press reported that
Minister of Justice Al-Sitri had formally approved Al-Wifaq's
application to be registered as a political society. With

this approval, it is widely expected that Al-Wifaq will
announce in January it decision to participate in the 2006
parliamentary elections. The head of Al-Wifaq's public
relations directorate, Shaikh Hussain Aldaihi, and Faisal
Jawad also attended the meeting.

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STRONG SUPPORT FOR PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS
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3. (C) The Ambassador opened the discussion by congratulating
Shaikh Ali on the formal registration of Al-Wifaq, and stated
that it has always been the strong position of the United
States that political societies like Al-Wifaq should
participate in the election process. Shaikh Ali, observing
that formal Ministry of Justice approval had dragged on for
weeks, said he was pleased that Al-Wifaq was finally
registered. (Note: the approval process had been delayed as
the Ministry of Justice and Al-Wifaq negotiated over
technical points in the Al-Wifaq application. The apparent
delay in gaining final approval had generated concern among
some that Al-Wifaq, having made the decision to register, was
being left in legal limbo. The official announcement of
registration should alleviae those concerns. End note.)


4. (C) Noting tha the proposal to register as a political
societyhad received strong support when the issue was vote
on earlier in the fall, the Ambassador asked ifhe had a
similar level of support on the questio of actual
participation in the parliamentary elctions. Shaikh Ali
stated that support for regitration had been around 88
percent, and that he epected similar support for
participation in the elections. He added that it would make
things easier if the government proceeded to set dates for
both the municipal elections (expected in May) and the
parliamentary elections (expected in October). He also noted
recurring rumors that the King plans to postpone the
parliamentary elections for two years. The Ambassador stated
that he had been reassured at the highest levels that the
elections would proceed as planned in 2006.


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BUT DISTRUST OF GOVERNMENT REMAINS HIGH
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5. (C) Despite Al-Wifaq's apparent plans to contest the 2006
parliamentary elections, Shaikh Ali said that there remains
great distrust in Al-Wifaq and among Shia more generally
about the intentions of the government. He covered much
familiar ground, complaining about the King's decision in the
new constitution to install an appointed Shura of equal size
and slightly more power to the elected Council of
Representatives. He repeatedly raised his frustration on the
issue of constituencies and the way boundaries were drawn up
to favor Sunnis and underrepresent Shia. He asked why the
King was so quick to bring in Sunni Arabs from neighboring
countries and give them citizenship. He noted that certain
Shia who were supposedly pardoned by the King continue to
have trouble traveling to certain neighboring countries like
Kuwait, which say they have been asked by the Government of
Bahrain not to let them in. (Note: the government has stated
that it has no ban on travel to other countries, and it is
not clear what is behind this issue.) He acknowledged that
the Ministry of Interior has made a start in employing Shia,
but that it is too soon to tell how successful or meaningful
this will be.


6. (C) Although it appears that Al-Wifaq will participate in
the 2006 parliamentary elections without gaining any prior
concessions from the King (as it had long demanded),Shaikh
Ali said that he still hopes for a gesture from the King. He
added that we would welcome dialogue with the King. (Note:
although there had been a dialogue between boycotting
societies and a government committee, that dialogue was
broken off by the government more than a year ago. End note.)


7. (C) Although he felt strongly that the electoral
constituencies, as currently drawn, would negatively affect
Al-Wifaq's showing at the polls, Shaikh Ali expected Al-Wifaq
to win a maximum of 15 seats in next year's parliamentary
elections, out of a total of 40 seats in the Council of
Representatives. This would no doubt make Al-Wifaq the
largest political society in the new parliament.

--------------
IRAN HAS NO INFLUENCE OVER AL-WIFAQ
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador asked about Al-Wifaq's relations with
Iran, noting the government's concern about Iranian influence
within Bahrain's Shia community. Shaikh Ali denied that Iran
had any influence over Al-Wifaq as an political organization.
While there are certainly religious connections, he said,
these ties do not extend beyond that. Al-Wifaq does not want
a Bahrain controlled by Iran, just as it does not want a Shia
Bahrain or a Sunni Bahrain. It wants a Bahrain for all
Bahrainis.


9. (C) Shaikh Ali spoke favorably of Bahrain's traditional
tolerance for all religions and sects, observing that it is
widely accepted that all religions should be free to observe
and practice their faith in Bahrain.

--------------
ENDORSEMENT OF RELATIONS WITH THE U.S.
--------------


10. (C) Shaikh Ali also welcomed and endorsed Bahrain's
strong bilateral relationship with the United States.

-------------- --
SHIA ACTIVISTS HAVE GENUINE EMPLOYMENT CONCERNS
-------------- --


11. (C) Asked about Shia activists who have broken away from
Al-Wifaq over the issue of political registration and have
engaged in a series of recurring demonstrations, some of
which have turned violent, Shaikh Ali stated that he was
worried about how to deal with them. He said that there is
genuine frustration among many Shia over the issue of
unemployment, and activists like Al-Khawaja are tapping into
this. The jobs issue is real, he stressed.


12. (C) The Ambassador asked how Shaikh Ali viewed the Crown
Prince's labor reform proposals, which seemed to be a sincere
effort to deal with the unemployment issue. Because


unemployment disproportionally affects Shia, this would seem
to be an initiative the Shia community would support. Shaikh
Ali acknowledged that he did not really know much about the
Crown Prince's labor reforms, so could not comment. The
Ambassador, noting the generational differences between the
Prime Minister (the King's uncle),the King, and the Crown
Prince (the King's son),asked if Shaikh Ali looked more
favorably towards the younger, more reform-minded leadership.
Shaikh Ali said that if he had been asked this question
three or four years ago, he most certainly would have replied
affirmatively. However, with disappointment over
constitutional issues and allegations that the younger
generation is as corrupt in its own way as the older
generation (specifically in the way that it benefits from
land deals, most notably the sale of land to be reclaimed
from the sea for big development projects),he is now less
sure that things have really changed.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) Shaikh Ali was warm and engaging, and welcomed the
opportunity to meet with the U.S. Ambassador. One year ago,
the government publicly rebuked the British Ambassador when
he met with Shaikh Ali, arguing that by meeting with the
leader of a society which rejected participation in the
electoral process, the British Ambassador was interfering in
Bahrain's internal affairs. With Al-Wifaq's decision to
register (and presumably participate),times have changed in
Bahrain. But in heading towards participation without
gaining the concessions he had long sought, Shaikh Ali feels
he is taking a risk, and he hopes for U.S. support in pushing
his agenda.
ZIADEH