PEACEFUL HUMAN RIGHTS DAY MARCHES REINFORCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAMA 001839

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PHUM KDEM BA HUMRIT POL REFORM
SUBJECT: PEACEFUL HUMAN RIGHTS DAY MARCHES REINFORCE
NEW-FOUND CALM

REF: MANAMA 1773

Classified by DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) More than 5,000 people marched in peaceful
International Human Rights Day rallies December 9, a sharp
contrast to the small but sometimes destructive
demonstrations that took place in and around Manama November
29-December 2. The Committee for the Unemployed, which had
organized the violent demonstrations, agreed December 1 in a
meeting with Al Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman to suspend
all protest activities. In their Friday prayer sermons on
December 2, several leading clerics, both Shia and Sunni,
called for an end to the clashes. Interior Minister Shaikh
Rashed met with several activists and pledged to include
"neutral parties" in an investigation of the alleged
kidnapping/beating that sparked the violence. He also
announced his intention to hire 2,000 citizens during 2006.
Prominent mainstream columnists praised the peaceful December
9 marches and warned that civil strife would drag the country
backward. While moderate Shia oppositionists once again
demonstrated their ability to control the fringe elements and
to prompt favorable action by the government, responsible
members of the GOB and Al Wifaq will face continuing
challenges in the months ahead in the run-up to next year's
elections. End Summary.

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Peaceful Rallies for Human Rights Day...
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2. (U) More than 5,000 people participated in peaceful
demonstrations December 9 to mark International Human Rights
Day. The largest rally, which observers estimated drew
between 4,500 (Ministry of Interior) and 35,000 (organizers)
participants, was planned by the alliance of four boycotting
societies - the Shia Al Wifaq and Islamic Action societies
and the secular Al Waad and Progressive Democratic Forum
societies. The theme of the demonstration was "Rights and
Dignity" and several senior Shia clerics, including Shaikh
Isa Qassem and Shaikh Abdulla Al Ghuraifi, led the protesters
on a march along the corniche in downtown Manama. By all
accounts, even that of pan-Arabist daily Akhbar Al Khaleej,
no friend of Shia activists, the march was well-organized and
disciplined. A second rally of note was held by the Bahrain
Human Rights Society (BHRS). Some 60 supporters marched in a
section of Manama adjacent to the location of the larger
rally. In a speech, BHRS Secretary General Sabeeka Al Najjar
called for the repeal of a decree granting amnesty to police
officers accused of abuses before 2001.

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...Follow End of Violent Clashes
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3. (U) The day's activities were in vivid contrast with the
sometimes violent and destructive demonstrations that took
place November 29-December 2 in and around Manama (reftel).
The protests petered out following a December 1 meeting
between Al Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman and the
leadership of the Committee for the Unemployed, which
includes activist Abdul Hadi Al Khawaja and former Executive
Director of the closed Bahrain Center for Human Rights Nabeel
Rajab. In his December 2 Friday prayer sermon, Salman said
that the Committee had agreed to suspend all protest
activities and he criticized those who continued to take to
the streets in spite of the Committee's decision. In his
sermon, Shaikh Isa Qassem said, "As much as I encourage the
government to resolve the issue (of unemployment) and to
respect human dignity, I also call on our youth not to allow
their emotions" to control their actions. Salafi cleric
Shaikh Salah Al Jowder, who is an exception among Salafi
clerics because of his occasional outreach to Shia, said in
his sermon that holding protests and rallies are the right of
the people, but when these demonstrations get out of control
and harm the public interest, they are unacceptable to any
logical person.

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Interior Minister Defuses Crisis
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4. (U) Another important contributing factor to
reestablishing calm in Bahrain was Minister of Interior
Shaikh Rashed bin Abdulla Al Khalifa's December 3 meeting
with Moussa Abdali, whose alleged kidnapping and beating the
night of November 28 sparked the clashes, and his father, in
the presence of activist Rajab. Shaikh Rashed publicly
pledged to investigate the incident and to include "neutral
parties" in the investigation. The next day Abdali told a
press conference that the Minister had assured him he would
do everything he could to bring the perpetrators to justice.
Ali Salman also met with Shaikh Rashed, on December 4, and
they agreed that the Ministry would hire 2,000 citizens in

2006. Following the meeting, Salman publicly stressed the
importance of freedom of expression, but cautioned that
exercising this freedom must be done in a peaceful manner
only.


5. (U) The elected lower house of parliament, the Council of
Representatives (COR),issued a statement December 3
condemning illegal demonstrations. The COR formed a
committee to investigate Abdali's case, and First Vice
Chairman Abdul Hadi Marhoon hosted a meeting between deputies
and Abdali. Participants agreed on the importance of
expediting the MOI investigation and proposed inviting Shaikh
Rashed to explain the Ministry's plans. Deputies hailed
Shaikh Rashed's actions in calming the atmosphere. Faisal Al
Mousawi, chairman of the appointed upper house Shura Council,
publicly condemned violence and sabotage carried out during
the protests.

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Commentaries: Clashes Belong In The Past
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6. (U) Independent daily Al Wasat reporter Reem Khalifa said
in a December 11 column that some in Bahrain are trying to
import the concept of sectarian division from Iraq. She
praised the "Rights and Dignity" rally because it reinforced
the basic rights of all citizens without discrimination.
Columnist Sawsan Al Shaer, writing the same day in new Arabic
daily Al Watan, asserted that "the stage of burning tires and
blowing up gas cylinders is over," a reference to the
violence of the 1990s. "We need an opposition that works
according to the system; we need an institutionalized
opposition."


7. (U) Al Wasat editor-in-chief Mansour Al Jamri complained
in a December 3 column that "some people are trying to
appoint themselves national heroes and great leaders that
dare to confront the regime and call for its toppling. These
people need not be given any attention." He recommended that
citizens instead focus on solving vital national issues such
as unemployment. Al Wasat columnist Sayed Dhiya Al Mousawi
wrote December 3 that all Bahrainis, including religious
scholars, must reject violence and recognize that Islam
forbids harming others and their interests. "We must
confront all attempts to take the country backward," he said.

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Ominous References to "Safawi" Threat
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8. (U) A more ominous refrain has also appeared in public
discourse in the past few weeks - references to the "Safawi"
threat. Conservative Sunnis, pan-Arabists, and Baathists
have used the term, the Arabic form of Safavid, the Iranian
dynasty that ruled from 1501 to 1736 and that established
Shia Islam as the official religion, to refer to newly
empowered Shia populations in Iraq and Bahrain (or, depending
on one's perspective, Iranian interference in domestic
affairs). Deputy and former head of the Salafi Asala bloc in
parliament Shaikh Adel Al Moawada said in his Friday prayers
sermon December 3 that Bahrain's Sunni and Shia communities
"must stand as one to protect Bahrain from the Safawi
threat." He claimed that Bahrain had been targeted by a
foreign country (Iran) that uses a small group of people in
Bahrain to implement its orders and sabotage the country.
Akhbar Al Khaleej columnists Hafedh Al Shaikh and Sameera
Rajab, known for their pan-Arabist, Baathist views, have
complained that Iraq has been the victim of an
"Anglo-American, Safawi-Zionist" invasion and occupation.

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Small Groups Cause the Trouble
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9. (C) Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told PolOff
December 12 that those causing trouble in the clashes with
police were primarily small groups of youths acting on their
own. It does not take many people to cause what appears to
be big trouble, he said, describing his having witnessed
three young men lighting a tire on fire and, when police came
to investigate, throwing stones and yelling at them. An
undercurrent of the recent clashes was sentiment against
foreigners in the security forces, almost entirely Sunnis
from the Arab world and South Asia. Although Interior
Minister Shaikh Rashed announced his intention to hire 2,000
citizens in 2006, many Shia are still upset that
non-Bahrainis from the security services are being granted
citizenship in recognition of their service to the country.


10. (C) Al Qari said that Ali Salman organized the large
"Rights and Dignity" march partly to draw attention away from
the small groups of troublemakers and to encourage them to
join with the more moderate Shia mainstream. When Al Wifaq
sponsors a rally, he said, it adheres to three principles:
(1) the demonstration must have a clearly stated goal; (2)
participants must conduct themselves in an orderly fashion;
and (3) all participants must be known to Al Wifaq, in order
to avoid embarrassment instigated by outsiders.


11. (C) Reacting to the violent demonstrations, Shia MP
Mohammed Al Shaikh said that the Royal Court's initiatives to
develop a national employment project and unemployment
insurance scheme should help address the long-term problem of
unemployment. He attributed the decrease in tension to the
Interior Minister's meeting with Moussa Abdali and leading
Shia personalities, and his pledge to boost the Ministry's
employment of Bahrainis. Shaikh Mohammed Sanqoor's statement
on behalf of the Shia Islamic Clergy Council urging the
Committee for the Unemployed to give Al Wifaq an opportunity
to achieve progress on the unemployment issue was also
important.

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Comment
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12. (C) In almost automatic fashion, as soon as more
moderate leaders in the Shia opposition became engaged with
responsible officials in the government, violent
demonstrations organized by the radical fringe slowed and
then stopped. While it is positive news that Al Wifaq played
a constructive role in helping end the clashes and appears
committed to participating in next year's parliamentary
elections, both Al Wifaq and the government face daunting
challenges in the coming months. Al Wifaq will be challenged
by Shia activists who have chosen to remain outside the
electoral process and will compete aggressively for support
among disaffected youth and unemployed who are impatient with
a lack of job prospects or the pace of reform. The extreme
elements will argue that Al Wifaq's restrained approach
allows the government to avoid dealing seriously with
fundamental political and social grievances.


13. (C) At the same time, the government (most notably the
King),which to date has done well in enticing Al Wifaq to
participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections and has
successfully dealt with provocative demonstrations with
limited force and no arrests, will have to walk a fine line
in dealing with the various pressures it faces. On the one
hand, conservative Sunni elements (personified by the Prime
Minister and his supporters) are becoming impatient with the
demonstrations, arguing that they are jeopardizing Bahrain's
attractiveness to investors and suggesting that a more
forceful crackdown might be necessary. On the other hand,
the King is committed to his reform process and is sensitive
to potential criticism from abroad if he appears to be
backtracking. Finally, there is a sectarian element at play,
exacerbated by the rhetoric coming from new Iranian President
Ahmadinejad and the oft-repeated fear that Iran may be
directly or indirectly increasing its intervention in
Bahrain's internal affairs. The King also has to worry about
his neighbors, many of whom have their own Shia concerns and
don't want to see Bahrain abetting any sense of Shia
empowerment in the region. So, while both sides have
successfully calmed the latest sectarian flare-up, they will
continue to be tested in coming months.

MONROE