AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH SHURA COUNCIL CHAIRMAN AL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001626

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER BA
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH SHURA COUNCIL CHAIRMAN AL
MOUSAWI

REF: A. MANAMA 1594


B. MANAMA 1553

Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe, reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In an October 30 meeting with the
Ambassador, Shura Council Chairman Dr. Faisal Al Mousawi said
he anticipates that the opposition political societies will
participate in the 2006 parliamentary elections and will gain
between 14 and 18 seats at the expense of the Al Minbar bloc
and the Independent bloc. He also anticipates that more than
20 percent of the Shura Council will change and admits that
he may not be part of a new Shura Council. He said that the
Shura Council is appointed after the elections to provide a
counterweight to the members of the elected Council of
Representatives (COR). Al Mousawi counseled against an
Embassy response to counter GTMO detainee Juma Al Dossary's
claims of abuse. End Summary.

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Final Session of Parliament
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2. (C) The Ambassador met with Shura Council Chairman Dr.
Faisal Al Mousawi October 30 to talk about this fourth and
final legislative session of this parliament's four-year
term. Al Mousawi said that legislation has backed up in the
elected COR due to the slow progress on labor reform
legislation. He said that there are approximately 65 pieces
of legislation, including anti-terrorism legislation, ready
for the COR to take up, but he doubted whether the Council
will be able to get to all of them during this session.

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Political Society Participation
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3. (C) Al Mousawi told the Ambassador that he expects Al
Wifaq to participate in the parliamentary elections, to take
place October 2006. He said that the opposition lost ground
by boycotting the 2002 elections. He referred to a meeting
with opposition leaders two years ago during which some
admitted that the boycott had been a mistake. Al Mousawi
estimated that the opposition would win 14 to 18 (of 40)
seats in the next election, but would not have enough support
to gain a majority. He singled out the seven-member Al
Minbar bloc and the eight-member Independent bloc as those
that may lose strength due to opposition participation in the
next election.

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Shura Council Changes Next Year?
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4. (C) The Ambassador inquired about anticipated changes in
the makeup of the Shura Council following the next election.
Al Mousawi said that the number of members will not change
from the current 40, but that he anticipates a turnover of
more than 20 percent, i.e., more than 8 members. When asked
whether people lobby the King to be appointed, Al Mousawi
said people do not. He said that the King watches the
current members, and he knows those who do not keep up on the
legislation, do not contribute much to Shura business and
debate, or are too busy with their personal business outside
the Council to be effective. The King has been considering
other possible candidates for the Council. Al Mousawi said
that Shura members will be chosen after the election to
provide counterbalance to the makeup of the COR; this is how
the Shura was appointed in 2002.


5. (C) When asked whether he would remain chairman in a new
Shura Council, Al Mousawi admitted that he has been thinking
about returning to the medical field. He is an orthopedic
surgeon and keeps his British medical license current. He
told the Ambassador that he has received an offer from the
World Health Organization to serve in Geneva and would like
to continue his involvement with the Irish University
facility in Manama.

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GTMO Detainees
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6. (C) Al Mousawi said that on October 29 he met with the
Prime Minister, who expressed frustration about criticism of
the GOB for not working hard enough on the return of the
Guantanamo detainees. Al Mousawi reported that the PM said
he "believes some will come back." (Note: His meeting with
the PM was two days prior to the government leak about the
imminent return of the detainees (Ref A). End note.) The
Ambassador expressed concern that the public would treat GTMO
returnees like heroes. Al Mousawi stated that the longer
they are held, the more they become heroes to the public.
When asked about his thoughts on an Embassy statement to the
media to counter claims by detainee Juma Al Dossary (Ref B),
Al Mousawi counseled silence. He admitted that their stories
may be exaggerated, but that countering the claims will only
invite more talk.
MONROE