Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05MANAMA1256
2005-08-29 13:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Manama
Cable title:  

CROWN PRINCE CONCERNED ABOUT SECTARIAN SPILLOVER

Tags:  PREL PGOV BA IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001256 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV BA IZ
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE CONCERNED ABOUT SECTARIAN SPILLOVER
FROM IRAQ TO BAHRAIN

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4
(b) (d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001256

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV BA IZ
SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE CONCERNED ABOUT SECTARIAN SPILLOVER
FROM IRAQ TO BAHRAIN

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe. Reason: 1.4
(b) (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Crown Prince Salman expressed concern to the
Ambassador August 28 that Iraq will not be able to meet its
goal of improving security for some time. While making clear
that Bahrain fully supported the U.S. position in Iraq, he
worried that a developing sectarian paradigm "is doomed to
failure" and that the development of a sense of shared
national interest in Iraq would only develop slowly over
time, perhaps a generation. Addressing the possible impact
on Bahrain, he said Bahrain is on the "Sunni/Shia fault line"
and cautioned that sectarian violence in Iraq could spill
over into Bahrain. Compared with earlier eras, Bahrain's
communities are now less tolerant and complain more about
each other. Bahrain, he said, must "transcend exclusionary
ideologies" and work to create national interests and
incentives. The CP welcomed Israel's withdrawal from Gaza
and said he would be making public statements on the move.
End Summary.

-------------- -
Constitution Designed to Unite, Protect Iraqis
-------------- -


2. (C) The Ambassador explained in an August 28 meeting with
Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa that the drafters of
the Iraqi constitution had the dual aims of promoting
national unity and protecting the rights of members of all of
Iraq's communities. Most issues had been resolved, although
the article on de-Baathification was still open. The
drafting committee had agreed to defer the question of
federalism until after elections for the new national
assembly.


3. (C) The Crown Prince said Bahrain worried about Iranian
influence in the Iraqi political system. Jaafari is a good
man who left Iran for Britain as soon as he could get a visa,
but Hakim is very close to Iran, the CP asserted. While
making clear Bahrain fully supported the U.S. position in
Iraq, he expressed concern that Iraq will not be able to meet
its goal of improving security and that the country could be
unstable for some time.

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Sectarianism Doomed to Failure
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador responded that the Sunnis must lower
their sights and accept that a strong central government
dominated by Sunnis will not be reinstated. The Shia and
Kurds will inevitably play a much larger role. Expressing
discomfort with the continuing and growing sectarian focus in
Iraq, the CP stated that the sectarian paradigm "is doomed to
failure." Those promoting sectarian concerns are unable to
make policy shifts because they believe in absolute truths
rather than interests. Any concept of the national (vice
community) interest will take time, maybe a generation.
There must be a favorable status quo for a period of time to
allow the "wounds to begin to heal." The CP said he fears
Iraq could disintegrate if things do not go well.


5. (C) The CP reiterated Bahrain's long-standing position
that the U.S. must continue to play a significant role in
Iraq. Ideally, U.S. forces could take up positions inside
bases and Iraqi security forces would be out patrolling the
streets. He warned, however, that following parliamentary
elections, Iraq could demand that American forces leave the
country and the GOI could become antagonistic toward U.S.
policies.

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Fears of Spillover from Iraq
--------------


6. (C) Turning to Bahrain, Shaikh Salman said that the
Kingdom will be better off the more people learn how to
negotiate, compromise, and accept the idea of give and take.
Citing Iraq but referring also to Bahrain, he said that those
who boycotted elections for the Transitional National
Assembly were now slowly entering the political system.
Saying Bahrain is on the Sunni/Shia fault line, the CP
asserted that the GOB is against any sectarian violence in
Iraq and fears such violence could spill over into Bahrain.


7. (C) Compared with the more liberal (and secular) 1970's
and earlier eras, relations between Bahrain's Sunni and Shia
populations are strained, the CP stated, and you hear people
complain about the other community. This greater
identification with sect is a direct result of what's
happening in Iraq. He continued that Bahrain must "transcend
exclusionary ideologies" and create a national base of
interests and incentives.

--------------
Gaza Withdrawal Encouraging
--------------


8. (C) The CP said he was encouraged by Israel's withdrawal
from Gaza and would be making public statements about the
move.
MONROE