ANNIVERSARY OF SANDINISTA REVOLUTION DRAWS A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002112

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
SUBJECT: ANNIVERSARY OF SANDINISTA REVOLUTION DRAWS A
CROWD, BUT SO DOES ANTI-PACT MARCH

REF: MANAGUA 1794


1. (U) Summary: Sandinistas celebrated the 26th anniversary
of the Sandinista Revolution on July 19 in Managua after
civil society organizations held another march, this time in
Granada, to protest the Liberal (PLC) and Sandinista (FSLN)
political pact. FSLN leader Daniel Ortega used the
opportunity of the anniversary to attack his putative ally
ex-President and PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman, try to discredit
the civil society marches as elitist, and energize his party
for the Presidential elections in 2006. Though only Ortega
and FSLN deputy Augustin Jarquin gave official remarks at the
July 19 event, the press followed the antics of FSLN founder
Tomas Borge, who had reportedly been excluded from the event,
but appeared to take a front-row seat. Though the
Sandinistas proved that they could still draw a crowd despite
the controversy generated by the pact with the PLC, their
leader felt compelled to address the growing support of the
anti-pact movement. End Summary.

ORTEGA ATTACKS ALEMAN AND BOLANOS, PREDICTS FSLN VICTORY
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2. (SBU) Sandinista strongman Daniel Ortega took center stage
at the celebration of the 26th anniversary of the Sandinista
Revolution on July 19. Despite his political alliance with
the PLC, Ortega used the opportunity to attack ex-President
Arnoldo Aleman, calling him a "thief" and saying "no one
should think that cooperation with (Aleman and Bolanos)
signifies abandonment of the struggle." He also implied that
Bolanos knew about and benefited from Aleman's misdeeds as
Aleman's Vice President and subsequently as the Liberal
presidential candidate. (Comment: Ortega likely felt
compelled to publicly distance himself from Aleman, given
that his popularity rating has plummeted largely because of
his association with the imprisoned ex-President. Likewise,
senior PLC members criticized Ortega during their July 11
convention. End Comment.)


3. (U) Ortega attempted to discredit the recent civil society
marches against the FSLN-PLC political pact (reftel and
below) by indicating that the protesters were upper class
Nicaraguans obeying the interests of President Bolanos, the
mainstream press, "big money," and the USG. He said that,
although the marchers were "provoking class warfare," they
"will not provoke the Sandinistas into a confrontation."


4. (U) During his hour-long remarks, Ortega defended the
embattled Supreme Electoral Council (CSE),the Nicaraguan
electoral authority that has been accused of corruption and
partisan behavior by many. Ortega proclaimed that (Liberal)
CSE president Roberto Rivas had done a good job and pointed
out that Rivas had also been in charge when Aleman and
Bolanos were elected. He accused the "so-called democratic
forces" of objecting to CSE behavior only when they don't
agree with election results, such as the FSLN's landslide
victory in the November 2004 municipal elections.


5. (U) Ortega concluded his speech by claiming that the past
15 years of Liberal governments have only "made the rich
richer and the poor poorer." He promised the Sandinista
masses to resolve Nicaragua's problems after he is elected
President in the November 2006 elections.

TOMAS BORGE RETURNS FROM PERU TO APPEAR AT FESTIVITIES
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6. (SBU) FSLN founder Tomas Borge defied rumors that he had
been excluded from July 19 activities by
mistress-of-ceremonies and Ortega concubine Rosario Murillo
by returning from Peru, where he was visiting his estranged
wife, to join in the fun. Borge arrived late to a July 18
mass officiated by Ortega confidant Cardinal Miguel Obando
dressed in a Che Guevara shirt. He took a seat in the front
pew next to Ortega after receiving a chilly welcome from the
Sandinista leader. At the main gathering, Borge was
relegated to a secondary stage reserved for "special guests."
He ignored the ushers and sat in the front row next to
Managua mayor Dionisio Marenco, who promptly moved. Later
Borge told reporters, "I am a founder of the FSLN, they are
mistaken if they think they can ignore me."


7. (U) The only other official speaker at the July 19 event
was FSLN National Assembly deputy Augustin Jarquin. Jarquin
echoed Ortega's optimism regarding the FSLN's chances in the
next elections and brought up a Sandinista favorite -- the
old judgment against the USG at The Hague for mining
Nicaraguan harbors in the 1980s. Some media outlets
predicted that Jarquin's performance was engineered to set
him up as Ortega's running mate on the FSLN/Convergencia
ticket.


8. (SBU) Other notable guests included Azul y Blanco deputy
and ex-Contra negotiator Jaime Carazo, Obando sycophant
Monsignor Eddy Montenegro, Father Hugo Chavez (representing
the Archbishop of Managua, Leopoldo Brenes),and PLC deputies
Eduardo Mena and Carlos Noguera. (Note: Noguera earlier
informed poloff that he would attend the July 19 activity to
get a sense of the atmospherics and monitor the Sandinistas.
End Note.) In response to criticism that the Revolution
anniversary had become an Ortega/Murillo family affair, their
children and other relatives were kept off the stages and
made to watch from the crowd.

ANNIVERSARY DRAWS CROWD, BUT NOT ALL ARE "DANIELISTAS"
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9. (U) Estimates of the number of people attending the July
19 event ranged from 60,000 to 100,000, with some Sandinista
sources claiming as many as 500,000. Journalists, however,
provided anecdotal examples that suggested that many of the
partygoers were not "Danielistas" per se, though they still
supported the FSLN. Several Embassy FSNs also reported that
they noticed less crowding and traffic than in previous years.

ANTI-PACT MARCH IN GRANADA BUILDS MOMENTUM
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10. (U) Contrary to Ortega's claims, the July 17 Red Por
Nicaragua-organized march in Granada drew protesters from all
levels of Nicaraguan society. The Granada march was the
first in a planned series of anti-pacto marches to follow up
on the June 16 march held in Managua (reftel). The march
drew a total of 15 to 20 thousand people, and the police
estimated from vehicular traffic that 7 to 8 thousand people
had come to Granada from other areas. Despite vague threats
from Sandinista partisans, the march took place peacefully.
The widely respected Bishop of Granada, Bernard Hombach,
praised the march as a "positive expression" and urged the
political class to resolve the current crises between the
powers of government. Red Por Nicaragua organizers announced
that the next march would be held in Chinandega.


11. (U) One of poloff's contacts, a resident of Granada, said
that he was very surprised to see so many people in the
streets, as he expected that most would take advantage of the
long weekend to take a vacation. He noted that it was only
the second time in his life to participate in a protest
march, and he recognized many of his neighbors in the street
-- people who had never done such a thing before. He said it
was very uncharacteristic of the conservative citizens of
Granada to take to the streets and was excited and optimistic
to see so many people turn out against the PLC-FSLN pact.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (SBU) While the July 19 celebrations made it clear that
the FSLN can still bring out the masses, the Red Por
Nicaragua marches have also proven that the Sandinistas no
longer "own the streets." The protest activities compelled
Ortega to respond, and revert to form, labeling anyone who
does not agree with him as an upper class elitist in league
with the United States. So far, fortunately, all of the
gatherings have been largely peaceful, though certain
personalities (such as dissident Sandinista Herty Lewites)
have indicated that this could change if the pact does not
give in to civil society's demands for a reformed CSE.
BRENNAN