SPAIN PLAYS DOWN AVIAN INFLUENZA THREAT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 003635

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR G, EUR/WE, AND OES/IHA; HHS FOR OGHA; GENEVA
FOR WHO; ROME FOR FAO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TBIO EAGR ECON PREL SOCI KSCA SP WHO FAO OIE
SUBJECT: SPAIN PLAYS DOWN AVIAN INFLUENZA THREAT

REF: MADRID 3489 AND PREVIOUS

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SUMMARY
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1. The reported arrival of the H5N1 virus in Greece and a
flurry of EU and national meetings on Avian Influenza have
kept "Bird Flu" in the Spanish headlines over the past week.
Spanish Health and Agriculture Ministry spokespersons having
been urging calm, alleging that Avian Influenza is not likely
to arrive on Spanish shores anytime soon and that when it
does arrive, the public health authorities will be prepared
to respond. END SUMMARY.

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PRIME MINISTER URGES PREVENTION AND PRUDENCE
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2. After meeting with French Prime Minister de Villepin in
Barcelona October 17, Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero urged
"prevention and prudence" in meeting the challenge posed by
Avian Influenza. He indicated that the measures already
adopted by his government were adequate in the event that a
human Avian Influenza pandemic emerged and called for stepped
up international cooperation to meet the threat.

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AGRICULTURE BELIEVES OUTBREAK UNLIKELY BEFORE SPRING
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3. The Spanish Agriculture Ministry announced October 17
that it was "very unlikely" that Avian Influenza would arrive
in Spain this winter, but could possibly reach Spain in the
spring of 2006. The Ministry based its argument on an
analysis of bird migratory routes, noting that birds
migrating south through Spain this winter would not likely
carry the virus, but might carry the disease to Spain when
they return north from Africa next spring. Notwithstanding
the current threat, the Ministry announced that it had
stepped up the monitoring of open air poultry farms located
near the major bird migratory routes.


4. The policy line of the Agriculture Ministry is neatly
captured in the following October 17 quote from Livestock
Director General Beatriz Garces de Marcilla: "The appearance
of a suspect bird in Greece has not altered our perception of
the threat, even if it is confirmed that this bird is
infected with the H5N1 virus. We are almost totally
convinced that the cases registered in Romania and Turkey,
like those in Russia, Kazakstan and Bulgaria, were caused by
the dissemination of the virus by migrating birds. They (the
infections) coincide very well with the habitual bird
migration routes toward the south during this season. It is
very unlikely that the current migration will introduce the
virus into Spain. The probability (of this occurring) is
higher in the spring, when the birds migrate north. But we
should remain calm. First, because we do not expect anything
like a massive infection of poultry stocks. The sickest
birds cannot migrate and they can only provoke isolated
infections. These outbreaks can be rapidly controlled via
preventative killings (of poultry) within a radius of three
kilometers. Furthermore, the great majority of farm poultry
in Spain is raised indoors. Only 10 percent are kept
outdoors and we are going to reinforce our monitoring of
those (open air facilities) that coincide with the principal
bird migration routes."


5. Furthermore, Agriculture Minister Elena Espinosa
delivered what she herself labeled a message of
"tranquillity" on October 16, stressing that Spanish poultry
consumption practices (e.g., avoiding consuming raw poultry)
made it unlikely that a human outbreak of Avian Influenza
could be spread via poultry consumption. She admitted that a
human outbreak could be spread via inhalation, but again
noted that Spanish poultry raising practices (e.g., farmers
do not generally live near their birds),would help limit the
spread of any potential human outbreak. The Minister
nonetheless stressed that she had ordered stepped up
monitoring of Spanish poultry farms and that Spain would
continue to prohibit the import of poultry or poultry
products from countries which have reported Avian Influenza
infections among their poultry stocks. Her Ministry also
announced last week that it would order five million more
animal H5N1 vaccines, giving Spain a total stockpile of 15
million animal vaccines.
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HEALTH MINISTRY CLAIMS IT IS READY FOR ALL EVENTUALITIES
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6. The Health Ministry has also urged calm and continues to
resist growing calls for Spain to purchase more anti-virals
(e.g., "Tamiflu") to combat any possible human Avian
Influenza epidemic. Spain has ordered two million "Tamiflu"
treatments (costing a reported 14 million euros). Spain has
only received 10,000 treatments to date and is not expected
to receive the full two million before June 2006. The two
million, once delivered, would serve to treat four percent of
the Spanish population.


7. In October 14 testimony before the Spanish Congress,
Health Minister Elena Salgado said her Ministry was
"reasonably comfortable" with the April 2005 decision to
order two million "Tamiflu" treatments but would revisit that
decision should the majority of Spain's 17 regions wish to
have more stocks on hand. She said that the anti-virals,
though paid for out of regional health budgets, would be held
in a central store and would be diverted to wherever in Spain
human outbreaks were first reported. Special preference (in
receiving anti-viral treatment) would be given to "high risk"
populations (e.g., the elderly, chronically ill, health and
poultry workers, and those with depressed immune systems).
An unidentified percentage of the anti-virals would be
reserved for the Spanish Armed Forces.


8. Salgado said she would push her EU colleagues to adopt on
an EU-wide basis the Spanish model of maintaining a central
anti-viral stockpile that could be diverted to initial
infection outbreaks. Summing up Spanish preparations to
date, Salgado argued that Madrid has "taken all the necessary
measures" to meet a possible human pandemic, that "our health
system is prepared to act with efficiency," and that "we are
prepared to detect any case (of human Avian Influenza) that
arrives and can meet all eventualities." She asked the
Spanish people to "stay calm" and criticized some regional
health authorities for creating "unnecessary and unjust
alarm" among the public.

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EU CALL TO STOCKPILE TAMIFLU MOST UNWELCOME
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9. The October 17 EU call for member states to stockpile a
sufficient quantity of anti-virals to treat 25 percent of
national populations will probably force the Health Ministry
to order more anti-virals, despite Spanish doubts about
"Tamiflu's" ability to treat the as of yet unknown viral
strain that would emerge to threaten human populations, the
Roche Company's reported inability to meet further orders
until well into 2006, and the stated Spanish preference for
assembling a shared EU "Tamiflu" stock (that could be
directed toward outbreaks),rather than having each country
chasing ever more elusive anti-viral stocks. The Health
Ministry revealed its ire at the EU decision October 17, with
an unnamed Ministry source telling the Spanish press that
Spain has "no idea" where the EU got the idea that the WHO
had recommended stocking anti-virals to treat 25 percent of
national populations. The same source noted that "no OMS
document mentions any recommended percentage for anti-viral
coverage."


10. Senior Spanish Health Ministry officials will meet
October 18 with health officials from the country's 17
autonomous regions (which have line authority over public
health issues) to discuss Avian Inluenza preparations. One
result may be the decision, against national level
recommendations, to purchase more anti-virals. Ordering
enough "Tamiflu" to cover the 25 percent of the Spanish
population recommended by the EU would cost Spain's regions
over 80 million euros (and certainly would not be delivered
until late 2006 at the earliest). Nonetheless, given the
fact that many EU nations have already decided to cover
larger percentages of their populations and that Spain's
largest opposition party has publicly called for purchasing
more anti-virals, Spain will likely soon add yet another
"Tamiflu" order to Roche's growing backlog.
AGUIRRE