SPAIN: FINAL GALICIA VOTE--END OF AN ERA FOR PP,

UNCLAS MADRID 002479

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SP PSOE
SUBJECT: SPAIN: FINAL GALICIA VOTE--END OF AN ERA FOR PP,
ANOTHER PSOE VICTORY

REF: A. MADRID 1628

B. MADRID 2363


1. (SBU) Summary: After a week of some suspense in Spain as
emigrant votes came in and were counted, final results of the
Galician regional elections confirm that PP,s grand old man,
Manuel Fraga, has lost his position as regional governor
after 16 years in power. This loss of a longtime PP
stronghold represents a blow to the opposition Popular Party
and its leader, Mariano Rajoy, who comes from Galicia.
Pundits here point out that this marks the fourth election
the PP has lost since the March 14, 2004 national vote,
including the EU Parliamentarian elections in June, 2004, and
the recent Basque regional elections. There was some talk
earlier that Rajoy might be replaced as party leader if the
PP lost Galicia; however, the current lack of an appropriate
alternative PP candidate probably leaves Rajoy safe for the
moment. Zapatero and his Socialist party will count this as
another victory as they solidify their electoral support
nationally and regionally. End Summary


2. (U) The emigrant votecount in Galicia has confirmed the
election result reported in Ref B: the national opposition
Popular Party (PP) has lost its majority in the Galician
Parliament to the coalition of the Socialist PSdeG and
Nationalist BNG parties. Because of the system of seat
distribution in Galicia, it became clear in the week
following the original election results that the PP would
need about two-thirds of the emigrant vote in the province of
Pontevedra to gain the one seat it needed to maintain an
absolute majority in the Regional Parliament. In 2001, the
party got more than 65% of the emigrant vote, a result it
obviously hoped to repeat. This year, however, the PP
received only 49.7% of the total, well short of what it
needed. This compared to PSdeG's 43.7% and BNG's 4.1% of the
emigrant ballots. Regional Socialist leader Emilio Perez
Tourino will take over as President of the Galician
Parliament from Manuel Fraga, who has held the office for the
past 16 years.

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Ready to Sue...
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3. (U) There was a moment of tension the afternoon of June 27
when the voting authorities in Pontevedra declared 4604
emigrant votes invalid, since they were stamped only with the
date of their arrival at Barajas Airport in Madrid, rather
than with the appropriate postmark from their country of
origin. The PP made threats to take the matter to the courts,
until they realized later in the evening that those votes
would in any event not be sufficient to bring the party
victory.

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Blow to the PP
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4. (U) The result is the first victory for the left in
Galicia's 24 years as an autonomous region. It solidifies the
mandate of the national government under the Socialist Party
(PSOE) and President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, and strips
the Popular Party of a key center-right stronghold. Galicia
is the home of the PP's national president Mariano Rajoy, and
of party founder and regional leader Manuel Fraga, who
declared last night he would stay on as opposition leader,
further delaying the question of PP leadership succession in
Galicia.
AGUIRRE