POPULAR PARTY: TROUBLE IN THE HEARTLAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRID 001628

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV SP PSOE
SUBJECT: POPULAR PARTY: TROUBLE IN THE HEARTLAND

Classified By: Political Officer Ricardo Zuniga; reason 1.4 (D)


1. (U) The opposition Popular Party (PP) is working hard to
avoid losing its controlling majority in Galicia,
historically a bedrock region for the center-right PP and
home to both PP founder Manuel Fraga (now leader of the
Galcian Regional government) and current PP leader Mariano
Rajoy. The PP holds 41 seats in the 75-member assembly while
the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the Galician Nationalist Bloc
(BNG) each hold 17 seats. While the PP is likely to win the
largest number of votes in Galicia, polls indicate that for
the first time in four election cycles the PSOE and BNG are
poised to win more seats between them than the PP, enabling
them to form a PSOE-BNG coalition government and push the PP
into the opposition. On April 22, Manuel Fraga succumbed to
weeks of pressure from other PP leaders and agreed to hold
regional elections June 19 rather than in October, giving the
PP a slim chance to hold on to its majority.


2. (U) A loss in Galicia would further demoralize a PP stung
by losses in the March 14, 2004 national elections and a
substantial loss of seats in Basque Region elections on April

17. Support for the PP in Galicia has been sliding for the
last two years, beginning with criticism of former President
Aznar's handling of the "Presige" oil spill disaster that
damaged the local fishing industry and accelerating after the
PP's loss to the PSOE in the March 2004 national elections.
Infighting in the Galicia PP and Fraga's worsening health (he
is 82) have further clouded the picture for the PP in a
region that until this year was an unquestioned bastion of
center-right power. The fact that the nationalist BNG may
also lose seats to the Galician PSOE and would be the junior
partner in any coalition would only amplify the apparent
ascendancy of the PSOE at the national level.


3. (C) PP Parliamentary staffers confirmed the party's
difficulties in Galicia in a meeting with Embassy officers.
Economic adviser Miguel Marin noted that a loss in Galicia
would represent a particularly painful blow to a PP that is
already on the defensive. However, Marin said he did not
believe that a loss in Galicia would lead the PP to change
its leadership or its strategy as Spain's main opposition
party. Marin, who was an adviser to Aznar's presidential
team, said that the PP had misread the Spanish electorate
during the 2004 elections and had yet to settle on a
successful plan for recapturing the political center.
Percival Manglano, chief foreign policy adviser to the PP
Parliamentary group, was less inclined to advocate a shift in
the PP's current strategy of emphasizing its core principles
and aggressively attacking PSOE initiatives, but acknowledged
the PP's lack of success in countering Socialist advances
throughout Spain.

//NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS//


4. (C) A loss in Galicia would prove a major embarrassment to
PP leader Rajoy, both because it is his own district and
because he would be seen as presiding over three major
electoral losses in a row. Conversely, the PSOE would view a
win in Galicia as a strong argument for calling early
national elections in 2006 or 2007, when an absolute majority
would be within the Socialist's grasp. Zapatero's personal
popularity, and perhaps more importantly lingering voter
antipathy towards Aznar, are clearly potent weapons in the
PSOE arsenal and they are having an important effect in
Galicia. A loss in Galicia would make clear that the current
PP leadership has not found a way to distance itself
sufficiently from the failures of 2004 or to otherwise seize
the initiative back from the PSOE.
MANZANARES