SLOVENIA: INDEPENDENT KOSOVO - WHAT WAS DRNOVSEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000756

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/SCE AND EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: PREL SI YI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: INDEPENDENT KOSOVO - WHAT WAS DRNOVSEK
THINKING?

REF: LJUBLJANA 737

Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. On October 19 Slovene President Janez
Drnovsek briefed Contact Group (CG) Ambassadors in Ljubljana
on his nine point plan for conditional independence of Kosovo
(Reftel). (Note: text of nine-point plan will come spetel).
Much to the surprise of the CG Ambassadors, the Foreign
Ministry, and Drnovsek's own staff, Drnovsek took the plan
public the next day, even before vetting it with the
potential parties to the plan. The initial reaction from
Belgrade as reported in the Slovene press was swift and
negative. Drnovsek's planned November 2 visit to Belgrade
was unceremoniously canceled. Press reports indicate the
reaction from Pristina was more positive though the plan
still falls short of Kosovar Albanian's goals. Drnovsek's
reaction to all the negative press was "if nobody likes it,
then it must be a good plan." Four days later, Drnovsek has
not backed away from his proposal saying it is critical to
get the discussion on concrete footing and headed in the
direction that all know, even if they will not agree to it
publicly, is inevitable - Kosovo's independence. What
appeared initially as clumsy diplomacy seems now to be a
deliberate gambit by Drnovsek to influence impending
discussions on the future status of Kosovo and to end the
"foot dragging" that he says has characterized the
International Community's handling of the problem during the
last five years. We expect he will continue to speak out on
this subject and will weigh in on discussions with the UN
Special Envoy for Kosovo Status as negotiations go forward.
End Summary.

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Building Support
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2. (C) Drnovsek is pressing on with his mission to influence
the debate on Kosovo. In the face of negative press and a
cool reaction from the EU, Drnovsek made his case to
Ljubljana's resident EU Ambassadors on October 25. One EU
Ambassador called the Embassy to check our reaction and
agreed with the view that Slovenia, through Drnovsek, wants
to be a player on Kosovo. While not precisely embracing
Drnovsek's plan, neither PM Janez Jansa, nor FM Dimitrij
Rupel has created much distance between themselves and
Drnovsek. As Jansa said to the press the plan is a
"legitimate initiative of a head of state, which is informal
and is an attempt to find a solution for the final status of
Kosovo." Nonetheless, neither the MFA nor the Prime
Minister's office was aware that Drnovsek was going to take
the plan public at the time and in the manner he chose. Even
Drnovsek's own foreign policy advisor, Ivo Vajgl, told COM
that he had been surprised by Drnovsek's move.


3. (SBU) Both the president's office and the MFA undertook
some damage control. Vajgl's trip to Belgrade on October 20
did not result in a new invitation for Drnovsek to visit, nor
did it seem to budge the Belgrade government on the idea of
Kosovo independence. But Vajgl, speaking to COM, claimed to
have had positive discussions with FM Vuk Draskovic, in which
they agreed on "four principles" for the way forward on
Kosovo. He also said he had had multiple interviews with the
Serb press, TV, and radio to help move the discussion
forward. His discussions with the government in Pristina
seemed to be more positive. Rupel reportedly spoke several
times with his counterpart, FM Vuk Draskovic and feels
confident that unhappiness with Drnovsek's plan will not be
reflected in bilateral relations. Still, Rupel feels that
Drnovsek's decision to go public was wrong and that, while he
agrees with the substance of his proposals, he has not
contributed anything new to the discussions which the Contact
Group have been conducting. As an interesting side-bar,
Rupel told COM that he and Vuk Draskovic, last January, had
worked out a document of principles which Draskovic had then
tried to get approval for in Belgrade, without success. For
that reason the document never saw the light of day.

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Working the Serbian Orthdox Church
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4. (SBU) Coincidentally, Patriarch Pavle of the Serbian
Orthodox Church was in Ljbuljana October 23 to consecrate the
Serbian church of St. Cyril and Methodius down the street
from the Embassy. One source highlighted that President
Drnovsek had purposely gone to the consecration for the
service and then met separately with the Patriarch. Noting
that the Patriarch has "more influence over the feelings of
the Serbs than any Serb politician," the source made clear
that Drnovsek had used the time to press the Patriarch on his
views on Kosovo.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Janez Drnovsek, as the penultimate president of
Yugoslavia and witness to Milosevic' infamous speech at
Kosovo Polje in 1989 feels he has a particular contribution
to make to resolving the issue of Kosovo's future status.
Based on his experience and knowledge of "how the Serb mind
works" Drnovsek seems determined to bring his "insider
status" to bear in any way he can to influence the
negotiations toward what he, and others, see as inevitable:
"conditional independence" for Kosovo, and as soon as
possible. We expect that Drnovsek will continue to speak out
on this subject and will weigh in on occasion with the UN
Special Envoy for Kosovo Status and Former Finnish President
Ahtisaari as status negotiations proceed. As Drnovsek pointed
out to Contact Group Ambassadors (reftel),Slovenia as the
only member state of the former Yugoslavia now a member of
both the EU and NATO is a model for what both Serbia and
Kosovo can be in the future. And it is in Slovenia's
political and economic interest that that happen as quickly
and smoothly as possible.
ROBERTSON


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