SLOVENIA: LIBERAL DEMOCRATS IN CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000460

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: LIBERAL DEMOCRATS IN CRISIS


Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Since Parliamentary elections in October
2004, the former ruling Liberal Democracy Party (LDS) has
lost focus, cohesion and leadership - and there is no clear
savior in sight. It is universally agreed among Slovenes
that, from the time he assumed the role of Prime Minister,
Anton Rop has performed dismally as party leader. Yet, after
the initial finger pointing following the failed elections,
the LDS again chose Rop as party president. Since that time
and in addition to the hits taken prior to national
elections, the party has suffered a number of public blows,
including the disintegration of the LDS Group of Ljubljana
City Counselors between March and June 2005. There has been
widespread criticism in the press of Rop's inability to mount
an effective opposition to current Prime Minister Janez
Jansa's very popular government coalition. Rop has defiantly
refused to step down, but in a nod to reality, agreed to an
early party Congress to be held in September 2005. It is not
certain, yet, whether the entire leadership will be up for
re-election, or just the President. End Summary.

Early Signs of Faltering
--------------


2. (C) The current predicament of LDS is rooted in leadership
changes which occurred in December 2002 when then Prime
Minister Janez Drnovsek was elected President of Slovenia.
Rop, then Minister of Finance, was hand-picked by Drnovsek to
fill the vacancy of Prime Minister. Internal tensions grew
and the Rop-Drnovsek relationship became strained. In a
stunning loss in June 2004, LDS claimed only two of seven
sets in the European Parliament. Rather than view tis as a
major political loss and a signal of poplar discontent with
the LDS, Rop and his supportes continued to pursue their
parliamentary re-election campaigns in a "business-as-usual"
manner. After 12 years of near constant rule, the LDS
apparently did not believe the Slovene public would reject
what it was coming to view as an arrogant and elitist
leadership and vote for Janez Jansa who, until then, seemed
destined to be the eternal opposition.

Continuing Descent
--------------


3. (C) When Rop took over from Drnovsek as party President
(and Prime Minister) he also shifted the party (and
Government) away from the center and more decidedly to the
left. While a strong supporter of EU membership for
Slovenia, his support for NATO was luke-warm. Rather than
make bold, necessary economic changes, Rop wanted Slovenia to
adopt (or hold on to) a strong social-welfare model of
government such as in Denmark or Sweden. Privatization was
not truly on the agenda, and foreign direct investment was
viewed with parochial suspicion. In addition to preferring a
less dynamic "go slow" approach to economic reform, the LDS
and its economic beneficiaries i.e. directors general and
board members of most major components of the economy:
banking, insurance, energy, retail, food processing, etc.
were being viewed as arrogant and interested only in
self-enrichment. Nothing Rop did during elections helped to
change the prevailing view. Even the creation of "Forum 21,"
former President Kucan's group of influential and like-minded
financial and political leaders, had no effect. Had Rop
managed to pull off a win, we could have expected a
resurgence in Kucan's influence. As it is now, and with the
change in leadership on most boards of the government owned
enterprises, Forum 21, and any potential influence it might
have had, has largely fizzled away.

LDS as Opposition
--------------


4. (C) During a private lunch with COM in April, Rop said he
was prepared to be a strong and loyal opposition. He had set
up a shadow cabinet and told us it would closely track Jansa
and his government's actions. Since then, we have seen
little to suggest an organized, principled opposition agenda
has been developed or deployed. There is the occasional
swipe in the press aimed at a Jansa policy, but for the most
part, Rop and the LDS are more focused on their internal
political meltdown than national strategy. Perhaps in
acknowledgment of a poorly run campaign and a deep chasm
between himself and the Slovene voter, Rop also asked COM for
contact information for the National Democratic Institute.
He said that he would like to connect with some US
politicians on how to run a better campaign. This was an
interesting request coming from a firmly Euro-centric
politician. (Note: Post did pass along the requested
information. End Note)

Will LDS Survive?

--------------


5. (C) The LDS will likely survive in some form, but it will
probably need several election cycles before it can hope to
reclaim its former political standing. Former LDS youth wing
leader and International Visitor participant, Stane Straus,
in a conversation with Polecon Chief, predicted it would be
eight or maybe even 12 years before the LDS won back the
Prime Minister's office. He was clearly fed up with the poor
leadership of the party and, after the 2004 elections, opted
to return to his hometown of Kranj to pursue lcoal business
and political opportunities. Straus suggested he might even
move to Australia for a few years to build a strong personal
economic foundation before returning, eventually, to national
party politics.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The LDS crisis is one of leadership. Rop defiantly
refuses to resign, however, he has said that he would not run
again for party president if an election is held at the
Septembr party Congress. His support base within the party is
made up primarily of the most left-leaning members, including
many of the "technocrats" whom he appointed to ministerial
positions when the SLS left the coalition in Spring of 2004.
Despite a recent meeting, President Drnovsek is unlikely to
spend any of his valuable political capital in support of
Rop, who lost no time abandoning Drnovsek's more centrist,
consensus-driven positions when he took over as Prime
Minister in 2002. The best that his internal opposition,
made up mostly of old-guard LDS members, has been able to do
is force the party congress to be held in September rather
than December. Nonetheless, and despite his obvious failings
as a leader, there currently is no obvious, immediate
alternative to Anton Rop.
ROBERTSON


NNNN

2005LJUBLJ00460 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL



v1.6.2