DENSITY OF COCA CULTIVATION: NEW MEASUREMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LIMA 004261

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958
TAGS: SNAR PE
SUBJECT: DENSITY OF COCA CULTIVATION: NEW MEASUREMENT

REF: LIMA 02674

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SUMMARY
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1. Eradication of coca in Peru has historically been
measured and reported in hectares (2.47 acres). Embassy has
reported on an expansion in the area under coca cultivation
in Peru: UN figures for 2004 released in May show an
increase of 14 percent over the previous year. In addition,
on-the-ground measurements are confirming that the densities
of coca plants in the fields are increasing by up to 350%
over what was once considered a norm of 40,000
plants/hectare. As a result of the increasing densities,
the use of hectares to quantify eradicated coca is
misleading and may understate the eradication efforts being
undertaken by the GOP. To correct this potential
inaccuracy, DEVIDA is considering new units of measure as a
goal for eradication. The most likely would be the
measurement of eradication in equivalent terms of potential
kilograms or metric tons of cocaine production averted
(CPA).
END SUMMARY

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SETTING A GOAL
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2. A meeting of the Multi-Institutional Committee, chaired
by DEVIDA and attended by NAS, was held on September 8 to
consider the eradication goal for 2006. The Executive
Director of DEVIDA, Nils Ericsson, suggested a goal of
14,000 hectares, almost double this year's goal of 8,000
hectares. The subject of densities was raised because it
has been realized that a hectare of coca in one area is not
equal to a hectare of coca found in another. Densities
range from a few fields with under 40,000 plants per hectare
to a majority of fields with well over 40,000. During
eradication operations in San Martin-Santa Lucia in August,
the average densities were measured at 143% of the 40,000
plants per hectare base once considered 100% density for the
Huallaga area. The 1,198 hectares that were eradicated were
the equivalent of 1,698 hectares if density is taken into
account.


3. A member of DEVIDA's inner council suggested that the
goal could be set in terms of CPA. Discussion of this
approach made it clear that a goal of CPA put the focus of
eradication efforts on the real goal, i.e. the denial of
coca leaf for the manufacturing of cocaine. An advantage of
this approach is that it serves to shift media attention
from sympathy for poor farmers whose hectares of coca are
being eradicated to the focus on the reduction of cocaine
that could have been produced from those hectares. It would
also encourage the GOP to eradicate in areas of high
densities as opposed to being tempted to go after easy coca
just for the hectare count, and it avoids the metric term,
"hectare," that the U.S. Government and American public do
not commonly use.

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PROPOSING A FORMULA
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4. The Multi-Institutional Committee established a sub-
committee to draft a detailed proposal. This group consists
of representatives from DEVIDA, CORAH, CADA and NAS. A
formula was devised by this group that uses the following
information: the results of three 10m X 10m samples taken at
each field to be eradicated, the extrapolation of those
samples to arrive at the density of the entire field and the
leaf yield of the plants in the particular valley/zone where
the field is located based on yield studies made during the
Breakthrough study. The formula uses the following
dividers: 100 kg of coca leaf equals one kg of cocaine
paste, and cocaine paste becomes cocaine at a ratio of three
parts paste to one part cocaine. The formula will be
adjusted as scientific laboratory studies refine values.


5. Following is an example of the application of the
formula: three hectares of coca leaf are eradicated with an
average density for the three fields of 60,000 plants, for a
total of 180,000 plants. 40,000 plants in this valley yield
2,000 kg of leaf. This comes to 9,000 kg of leaf in our
example. Since 100 kg of coca yields 1 kg of cocaine paste,
we get 90 kg of paste. Then, applying the 3:1 paste to
cocaine ratio to this example, 30 kg of cocaine production
have been averted.


6. The term "hectares" will still be used as a secondary
reference point. It will provide longitudinal and cross-
country comparison for USG and GOP agencies.

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CONSEQUENCES FOR ALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT
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7. One concern is the impact this change in measurement to
set the planned eradication goal would have on alternative
development goals. AD hectares that are voluntarily
eradicated are often low density and small in area as they
are part of a farmer's diversified crop. It is possible
that in the future, forced eradication campaigns might be
followed by alternative development interventions with the
goal of maintaining the area coca-free, thereby eliminating
hectares as a goal for AD. Indicators exist for AD that
evaluate the level of achievement of sustainable coca
reduction within communities as an additional measure to AD
successes in terms of eradicated hectares.


8. Comment: A presentation will be made to the Multi-
Institutional Committee in two weeks outlining the details
of this potential new measure of effectiveness for further
decision-making. Some might view this as a means of raising
our eradication statistics: in fact, we believe it is a much
more direct and useful measure of the impact of our
programs, as our real goal is to avert cocaine from reaching
the streets of U.S. cities.
STRUBLE