UNODC ANDEAN COCA SURVEYS FOR 2004 SHOW EXPANSION

UNCLAS LIMA 002674

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

INL FOR FARRAR, WHA FOR MONSERRATE, ONDCP FOR GETTINGS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PE PREL SNAR UN
SUBJECT: UNODC ANDEAN COCA SURVEYS FOR 2004 SHOW EXPANSION
IN PERU


1. (SBU) Summary: UNODC's 2004 coca survey found a 14 pecent
increase in coca cultivation over the previous year,
totalling 50,300 hectares. Most of this increase occurred in
the Upper Huallaga and San Gaban areas. The UNODC's findings
match Embassy's observations; our current eradication
schedule is centered on these regions. End Summary.


2. (U) The "UNODC Report on Andean Coca Surveys for 2004,"
presented in Brussels June 15 with DEVIDA Executive President
Nils Ericsson in attendance, reported a double-digit
year-on-year increase of coca cultivation in Peru over 2003.
On the basis of UNODC figures available locally, this
represents the biggest increase in the past 10 years.
Compared to 2003, UNODC calculates the total area under coca
cultivation rose by 14 percent to 50,300 hectares (not
included in the figures are plantings under a year old). The
Peru survey estimates potential cocaine production could jump
by 23 percent to 190 metric tons. According to the survey,
while 10,257 hectares of coca were eradicated in 2004,
cultivation of coca increased by 6,100 hectares to the 1998
level, when coca cultivation stood at 51,000 hectares. The
UNODP attributes these growth statistics to a near tripling
of the price of a kilo of coca leaf since its historic low in
1996, from 1 USD to 2.80 USD in 2004. Another stated reason
is the increased yield afforded by technical improvements
given to the growers by narco-traffickers


3. (U) The UNODC Survey concludes that 90 percent of the
2004 increase in cultivation (5,500 hectares) happened in two
areas that up till now have had little or no government
presence - the Upper Huallaga and San Gaban regions. Upper
Huallaga showed an increase of 24 percent to 16,900 hectares
(Monzon/Pizana/Yanajanca areas). San Gaban increased 475
percent from 470 to 2,700 hectares (measured before CORAH
eradicated 1,500 hectares in late 2003). The annual yield per
field is highest in the Apurimac-Ene valleys (VRAE),where
cocaleros harvested 3,627 kilos of coca leaf per year per
hectare, followed by the Upper Huallaga at 2,988 kilos per
hectare and La Convencion-Lares at 1,457 kilos per hectare.
These three valleys account for 88 percent of the total
increase in cultivation from 2003-2004. (Note: The UN yield
figures are parallel to but slightly higher than the recent
DEA Breakthrough yield figures. End Note).


4. (SBU) Lima's UNODC Representative Aldo Lale-Diaz told
NAS Director he wanted to stay clear of possible
controversies and focus media attention on two main points.
First, that Peru has to stop seeing the illicit coca-cocaine
industry mainly as a foreign problem: Peru will bear the
brunt of the upsurge in local drug production and trafficking
in terms of addiction, corruption and increased resources to
finance terrorism. Putting in a plug for Alternative
Development, Lale noted that total surface has remained
relatively stable in coca areas that have access to AD.


5. (U) The Press reflected these UN positions, but couched
their reports in terms such as "worrisome," "attack on the
family of nations" and "regression." An article in daily "El
Commercio" points out that coca is now grown in half the
departments of Peru.


6. (SBU) Comment: For Embassy Lima, there are no surprises
in the 2004 UNODC figures. We have been aware of the
increase of coca cultivation in the Upper Huallaga and San
Gaban areas, both of which we are targetting for
NAS-supported CORAH eradication in 2005. CNC has included
these areas in its measurement plan for next year. We
alerted the UN to some of the areas such as Yanajanca and San
Gaban (the pictures they have of Pizana and Yanajanca are
from NAS helicopters).


7. (SBU) Comment continued: CORAH has not tried to
eradicate in the Monzon - 67 percent of the Huallaga, that
UNODC shows increased by 6 percent (mostly in increased size
of fields) or the VRAE, which remained stable but is being
"technified" with fertilizer use and increased density.
Forced eradication would be too socially conflictive and
politically unsustainable in the run-up to elections. For
now, we will have to continue containing the coca "source
zones" while we stamp out expansion of coca in new areas.
Eventually, however, the hard-core Monzon and VRAE will have
to be tackled to make a dent in Peru's burgeoning coca crop.
STRUBLE