OPPOSITION LEADERS TELL AMBASSADOR THEY WILL NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 002249

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS TELL AMBASSADOR THEY WILL NOT
SPARK CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS; PRIME MINISTER OBJECTS THAT
THEY ALREADY HAVE

REF: A. LIMA 2241


B. LIMA 2222

C. LIMA 2131

D. LIMA 2054

Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(b
/d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Ambassador met separately with APRA leader Alan
Garcia and Unidad Nacional legislative bloc chief Xavier
Barron on 5/18 to express concern over reports that
opposition parties might stretch the Constitution to sanction
President Alejandro Toledo over allegations that he and his
Peru Posible party engaged in fraud to register for the 2000
elections. Garcia and Barron assured the Ambassador that
while the opposition parties will likely call for
congressional votes on the proposed sanctions, these votes
will fail and no/no constitutional crisis will result. They
also declared that their parties remain committed to
preserving political and economic stability for the remainder
of Toledo's term. The Ambassador subsequently briefed Prime
Minister Carlos Ferrero on these discussions; Ferrero
complained that just bringing the sanctions to a vote has a
destabilizing effect. END SUMMARY.

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APRA'S ALAN GARCIA
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2. (C) The Ambassador told Garcia that he was worried about
a possible constitutional conflict between the Executive and
Legislative Branches resulting from the 5/19 debate and vote
on sanctions against Toledo proposed by the opposition
members of the Villanueva Committee investigating the Peru
Posible signature fraud allegations (Reftels). Garcia
replied that there was no/no need to worry as, "Everything
will come out fine tomorrow." He emphasized that APRA is
determined to avoid creating an image for Peru akin to
Ecuador or Bolivia, and explained his views and strategy as
follows:

-- As a future presidential hopeful, Garcia recognizes the
importance of avoiding precedents that could reduce the
President's authority and provide Congress with undue power
to remove the head of government.

-- Garcia met with Toledo twice to discuss the Villanueva
Committee investigation.

-- Toledo was careless with his notes of the meeting,
however, and these notes fell into the hands of the press,
compromising Garcia (Ref C).

-- This created political blowback for Garcia and APRA; to
avoid accusations of collusion, they have to be seen to do
something.

-- The response decided upon was to propose Toledo's
"temporary" suspension from office until the criminal
investigations/proceedings against him are resolved.

-- This proposal will be voted down, with at most 34 votes
in favor (APRA's 28 and probably Peru Ahora's six
legislators).

-- Unidad Nacional will propose disqualifying Toledo from
holding office for ten years after his term ends. Garcia
thinks this would be very destabilizing, with the public
wondering why Toledo should be allowed to stay in office if
such a sanction was merited. APRA will not/not vote for this
and it will fail.

-- Peru Ahora's Edgar Villanueva, who chaired the committee
investigating Toledo, will probably not/not even present his
proposal to vacate the Presidency.

-- In the end, Congress will agree only to send the
Villanueva Committee's report to the Public Ministry
(Attorney General) for further investigation. This, Garcia
said, is the best outcome.

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UNIDAD NACIONAL'S XAVIER BARRON
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3. (C) The Ambassador had set up a meeting with Unidad
Nacional (UN) leader Lourdes Flores, but she fell ill with
paratyphoid fever on the morning of 5/18, and was replaced by
UN's legislative bloc chief Xavier Barron (the member of the
Villanueva Committee who proposed the disqualification from
office sanction). Barron said that UN congressmen had
discussed this with Lourdes Flores and would not/not take any
steps to threaten political stability and economic growth,
adding that UN supports Toledo finishing his term of office.
He accused the GOP of grossly exaggerating the threat posed
by the proposed sanctions, dismissing the latter as political
theater. According to Barron:

-- The three opposition members of the Villanueva Committee
agreed that Toledo and Peru Posible had committed signature
fraud, but did not/not agree on the proposed sanctions, each
of which had the support of only one legislator.

-- Congress, in reviewing the Committee's report on 5/19,
will address three issues: (1) electoral irregularities,
which are administrative violations; (2) misdemeanors and
felonies, which are criminal matters; and (3) constitutional
violations. The press and Executive Branch, he complained,
have excessively focused on the last item.

-- The Congress is scheduled to devote three hours to the
proceedings starting at 09:00: one hour of expositions,
followed by two hours of debate. APRA, however, likely will
call for a recess following the debate, and use the
intervening period to negotiate an arrangement on voting for
the individual sanction proposals. Consequently, the session
probably will not end until 20:00 or later.

-- Villanueva's proposal to vacate the Presidency has the
support of three legislators (Villanueva and pro-Fujimori
legislators Rafael Rey and Martha Moyano) and could count on
the support of three more at most.

-- APRA will support the suspension resolution, but UN will
vote against this.

-- UN will support the disqualification resolution, but APRA
will not support it.

-- There is growing support in Congress for a proposal by
pro-GOP Villanueva Committee member Heriberto Benitez
(Independent Moralizing Front) to issue a public reprimand to
Toledo, which will be a moral sanction without constitutional
effect.

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PRIME MINISTER FERRERO
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4. (C) The Ambassador briefed Prime Minister Ferrero on his
discussions with Garcia and Barron. The Prime Minister
expressed exasperation with the opposition parties' tactics,
particularly with APRA's conduct. He complained that just
voting on the temporary suspension offends the Constitution
and has a destabilizing effect. Ferrero added that the GOP
"has prepared contingency measures," such as a walk-out by
its legislators should events in Congress take a turn for the
worse.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Calling a vote on options that violently bend the
Constitution is potentially destabilizing; the loose
interpretations of provisions argued today may well be cited
down the road as precedents. That said, the opposition
appears to be playing to lose. The best outcome for Toledo
is one where the only motion to be approved sends the
investigatory committee's report to the Public Ministry for
consideration in its own investigation of party registration
fraud. The fact that the opposition, despite its dislike for
Toledo, is working to bring that about is what keeps this
country from becoming Baja Ecuador. Of course, it is equally
true that Peru might be Upper Chile if political parties
would eschew their predilection for playing to the cheapest
seats. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE