Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05LILONGWE937
2005-10-26 15:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

(C) BINGU AGONISTES: THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES

Tags:  MW PGOV PREL 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000937 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: MW PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: (C) BINGU AGONISTES: THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES


Classified By: Alan W. Eastham for reasons 1.4b and 1.4d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000937

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: MW PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: (C) BINGU AGONISTES: THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES


Classified By: Alan W. Eastham for reasons 1.4b and 1.4d.


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT BINGU WA MUTHARIKA SUMMONED
AMBASSADOR AND BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER TO STATE HOUSE
OCTOBER 26 FOR A TWO-HOUR-PLUS DISCUSSION OF HIS EFFORTS TO
COPE WITH THE "WRATH OF MULUZI" (AS HE CALLED THE EFFORT TO
IMPEACH HIM) AND THE HUNGER CRISIS. HE DEFENDED HIMSELF
AGAINST SOME OF THE SPECIFIC ALLEGATIONS IN THE INDICTMENT,
CALLED THE EFFORT TO SET UP A "NATIONAL GOVERNING COUNCIL" A
COUP D'ETAT, AND FORESHADOWED THE USE OF THE ARMY TO PROVIDE
SECURITY FOR THE GOVERNMENT MAIZE PIPELINE. HE SAID THAT IF
THINGS GET OUT OF HAND, HE MIGHT DECLARE A "LIMITED" STATE OF
EMERGENCY. END SUMMARY.

CORRUPTION AT THE ROOT OF IMPEACHMENT
--------------


3. (C) ON A DAY'S NOTICE, ON OCTOBER 26 AMBASSADOR AND
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER DAVID PEARY CALLED ON PRESIDENT
BINGU WA MUTHARIKA AT MUTHARIKA'S REQUEST. MUTHARIKA
LAUNCHED INTO AN OPENING EXPOSITION CREDITING HIS CAMPAIGN
AGAINST CORRUPTION AS THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF WHAT HE CALLED
THE "WRATH OF MULUZI" IN THE FORM OF THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT
IN PARLIAMENT. INTERLEAVING SPECIFIC EXAMPLES, HE SAID THAT
HIS ADMINISTRATION'S ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORT HAD CREATED A
LARGE NUMBER OF ENEMIES IN POLITICAL CIRCLES, GOVERNMENT, AND
EVEN IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR. FURTHERMORE, HE SAID, THE MOVE
OF THE PRESIDENCY FROM BLANTYRE TO LILONGWE HAD MADE MANY
PEOPLE UNHAPPY SINCE IT CUT OFF THEIR "OUT OF STATION"
ALLOWANCES. "IMPEACHMENT STARTED ON 20 MAY 2004," HE SAID,
"THE DAY I TOOK OFFICE." MUTHARIKA AFFIRMED THAT THE
ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORT WOULD CONTINUE, AND HE HOPED THAT THE
DONORS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ANTI-CORRUPTION
CAPABILITIES OF THE ANTI-CORRUPTION BUREAU (ACB),THE
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC PROSECUTIONS (DPP),AND THE ATTORNEY
GENERAL'S OFFICE (SPECIFICALLY DE-PERSONALIZING IT FROM THE
ATTORNEY GENERAL HIMSELF, WHO HAS BEEN THE SUBJECT OF SOME
EMBARRASSING PRESS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS).


4. (C) MUTHARIKA THEN DIGRESSED TO OFFER A DEFENSE OF
SEVERAL OF THE ALLEGATIONS IN THE DRAFT IMPEACHMENT
INDICTMENT, SPECIFICALLY SAYING THAT HE HAD OBJECTED TO THE
ACB'S DECISION TO PROSECUTE THE SUSPENDED TREASURY SECRETARY
FOR SPENDING K 2.5 MILLION AS START-UP COSTS FOR THE MARDEF

FUND, AN EXPENDITURE IN LINE WITH THE PRESIDENT'S ORDERS TO
START IT UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, RATHER THAN BRINGING A CASE
FOR THE k 20 MILLION HE IS ALLEGED TO HAVE STOLEN. HE SAID
THAT THE REMOVAL OF THE INSPECTOR GENERAL OF POLICE WAS BASED
ON A DISPARITY BETWEEN ASSETS (FOUR HOUSES PURCHASED IN A
VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME) AND SALARY, NOT AS ALLEGED IN THE
IMPEACHMENT RESOLUTION. AND HE SAID THAT IT WAS TRUE THAT HE
HAD CLAIMED AN EDUCATION ALLOWANCE FOR A GRANDCHILD WHO HAD
BEEN IN HIS HOUSEHOLD SINCE BIRTH AND WHO BORE HIS NAME. WHY
WOULD THE PRESIDENT NOT BE ELIGIBLE FOR AN ALLOWANCE HE HAD
RECEIVED EARLIER, WHEN HE WAS A MINISTER? "THEY ARE
FRANTICALLY TRYING TO DESTROY MY REPUTATION," HE SAID.


5. (C) MOREOVER, MUTHARIKA SAID, THERE ARE POWERFUL FORCES
AT WORK IN THE MEDIA TO CONCOCT STORIES, GOING SO FAR AS TO
QUOTE HIM SPEAKING WITH JOURNALISTS HE HAD NEVER MET. FOR
THIS REASON THE GOVERNMENT HAD HIRED A "SPIN DOCTOR" WHO HE
IMPLIED WAS AN AMERICAN, WHO WOULD BE ARRIVING IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. "WE," HE SAID WITHOUT ELABORATION, "HAVE
REGISTERED A NEW NEWSPAPER THAT WILL CONVEY OUR DEVELOPMENT
MESSAGE."


6. (C) MUTHARIKA WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE IS NOT WORRIED ABOUT
IMPEACHMENT, WHOSE MAIN EFFECT WAS TO "SLOW US DOWN AND WASTE
TIME." HE SAID THE UDF HAS COLLUDED WITH A JUDGE WHO WILL
LIFT THE INJUNCTION AGAINST THE PARLIAMENT'S COMMENCING
IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS IN AN EX PARTE HEARING THIS
(WEDNESDAY) EVENING SO THAT PARLIAMENT WILL BE ABLE TO
COMMENCE ITS CONSIDERATION OF THE IMPEACHMENT BILL ON OCTOBER
27 AS PLANNED. HE SAID THAT ANY VIOLENCE IN MONDAY'S DPP
DEMONSTRATION WAS FROM UDF "THUGS" WHO HAD INFILTRATED THE
DEMONSTRATION WITH STONES TO THROW AT CARS, AND DPP
HEADQUARTERS HAD BEEN INVADED AND PARTIALLY RANSACKED BY UDF
SUPPORTERS THAT SAME DAY WHILE THE STAFF WAS AT THE
DEMONSTRATION. THE OPPOSITION HAD ALSO THWARTED THE PASSAGE
ON OCTOBER 25 OF THE UNCONTROVERSIAL BILL REFORMING THE PENAL
CODE, SIMPLY TO PROVE THAT IT COULD BLOCK THE GOVERNMENT
AGENDA. HE EXPECTS THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REQUEST AN
EXTENSION TO ITS PROJECTED ADJOURNMENT ON OCTOBER 31, AND HE
SAID HE WOULD NOT GIVE IT TO THEM, NOR WOULD HE BRING THE
ASSEMBLY BACK INTO SESSION UNTIL HE HAS BEEN ASSURED THAT
BUSINESS WILL PROCEED.
GOVERNING COUNCIL A COUP D'ETAT
--------------


7. (C) HE WAS EMPHATIC THAT THE NATIONAL GOVERNING COUNCIL
WAS NOT IN THE CONSTITUTION. THE PRESIDENT'S MANDATE COMES
FROM UNIVERSAL ADULT SUFFRAGE IN MALAWI. A PRESIDENT CANNOT
BE ELECTED BY THE PARLIAMENT. IF THE OPPOSITION WANTS A
GOVERNING COUNCIL, IT CAN HAVE ONE IF IT AMENDS THE
CONSTITUTION BY A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY AND SUBMITS THE
QUESTION TO THE PEOPLE BY REFERENDUM. UNDER OTHER
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE NGC IS A "COUP D'ETAT". MUTHARIKA SAID HE
EXPECTS MORE DEMONSTRATIONS, WHICH WILL BE A THREAT TO LAW
AND ORDER, AND HE MAY BE FORCED TO "TAKE TOUGH MEASURES."
ARMY TO PROTECT ADMARC MAIZE DISTRIBUTION; NEED FUEL
-------------- --------------

8. (C) ELABORATING THE THEME OF "TOUGH MEASURES," MUTHARIKA
SAID THAT THE ADMARC SYSTEM OF MAIZE (SUBSIDIZED)
DISTRIBUTION HAD BEEN ABUSED. THE OPPOSITION, IN COLLUSION
WITH ADMARC EMPLOYEES, WAS "SABOTAGING" THE ECONOMY BY
PURCHASING MAIZE AND MOVING IT OUT OF THE ADMARC DEPOTS AT
NIGHT. THE PEOPLE KNEW ABOUT ADMARC DEPOT ARRIVALS AND
BLAMED THE GOVERNMENT WHEN THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH MAIZE THE
NEXT DAY FOR PURCHASE. THIS "SABOTAGE," HE SAID, WAS
"TREASONOUS." HE WOULD ORDER THE ARMY, HE SAID, TO FOLLOW
THE CONTROL AND DISTRIBUTION OF MAIZE, AND IT COULD BE THAT
IF SOMEONE CAME TO TAKE AWAY MAIZE WHO WAS NOT AUTHORIZED,
THAT THEY WOULD BE "SHOT ON THE SPOT." IT MIGHT EVEN BE
NECESSARY, HE SAID, TO INTRODUCE A LIMITED STATE OF EMERGENCY
TO GIVE THE ADMINISTRATION ENHANCED SEARCH POWERS TO USE TO
DETECT HOARDING. AND IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO "SEAL THE
BORDERS" UNDER SUCH A DECLARATION OR TO DECLARE A CURFEW IF
THE SITUATION CANNOT BE CONTAINED BY ORDINARY MEANS.
MUTHARIKA NOTED THAT THE ARMY WOULD NEED FUEL TO SUPPORT SUCH
AN EFFORT AND HE HOPED THE DONORS COULD PROVIDE IT.


9. (C) MOREOVER, MUTHARIKA SAID, THE OPPOSITION'S "PLAN C" IF
PLANS A (IMPEACHMENT) AND B (THE NATIONAL GOVERNING COUNCIL)
DID NOT WORK WAS TO CAUSE CHAOS. AL QAIDA IS IN MALAWI HE
SAID, IN THE FORM OF MUSLIMS "IN MANGOCHI WHO ARE HIDING IN
MOSQUES." MONEY IS COMING IN THROUGH MUSLIM PREACHERS, NGOS,
AND THE QADHAFI HOSPITAL PROJECT. THE POLICE COULD NOT RAID
MOSQUES, AND MUTHRAIKA SAID HE IS POLITICALLY RELUCTANT TO DO
SO, BUT "THE ARABS" ARE SENDING MONEY TO BAKILI MULUZI. "IT
IS CHRISTIANITY VERSUS ISLAM HERE."

CHILUMPHA THE "VICE PRESIDENT OF MULUZI."
--------------


10. (C) THE COUNTRY HAS NO VICE PRESIDENT, HE SAID. THE
UDF'S CASSIM CHILUMPHA IS THE "VICE PRESIDENT OF MULUZI"
SINCE HE HAS STOPPED COMING TO MEETINGS AND FAILED TO CHECK
WITH THE PRESIDENT WHEN HE PROPOSED TO TRAVEL "ON BEHALF OF
GOVERNMENT" TO SAUDI ARABIA AND OMAN, A TRIP THAT WAS
CANCELLED BY STATE HOUSE.

MULUZI'S AIM: DROP THE CORRUPTION CASES.
--------------


11. (C) MUTHARIKA SAID THAT THE LAST TIME HE HAD SPOKEN WITH
MULUZI, MULUZI HAD ASKED HIM TO DROP THE CORRUPTION CASES
AGAINST HIM AND HIS ASSOCIATES. HE IMPLIED THAT DROPPING THE
CASES WOULD RESULT IN DROPPING THE IMPEACHMENT EFFORT.
MUTHARIKA SAID HE HAD REFUSED. IF THEY PERSIST IN THE
IMPEACHMENT, THE COUNTRY WILL "RISE UP AGAINST THEM."

RIPOSTE
--------------


12. (C) FOLLOWING THE FOREGOING MONOLOGUE, THE BRITISH HIGH
COMMISSIONER REPLIED BY THANKING THE PRESIDENT FOR HIS
PRESENTATION, AFFIRMING SUPPORT FOR THE ANTI-CORRUPTION
CAMPAIGN, AND LAMENTING THAT PARLIAMENT HAD CHOSEN NOT TO
ADDRESS THE IMPORTANT AGENDA FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF ITS
SESSION. HE INFORMED THE PRESIDENT THAT THE DONOR COUNTRIES
REPRESENTED IN MALAWI HAD PREPARED A STATEMENT OF THEIR
POSITION ON IMPEACHMENT, WHICH WE WOULD BE SHARING WITH THE
PRESIDENT.


13. (C) THE AMBASSADOR FOLLOWED, REITERATING THANKS AND
SUPPORT FOR THE ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE, SPECIFICALLY IN THE
FORM OF MCA THRESHOLD SUPPORT FOR THE ACB, THE DPP, AND THE
POLICE. HE NOTED RECENT TRAINING IN EFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT
COMMUNICATION AND THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO GET ITS MESSAGE
OUT MORE EFFECTIVELY. HE WAS GRATIFIED THAT THE RECENT
RUMORS OF NIGHT-TIME LIFTINGS OF MAIZE FROM ADMARC DEPOTS HAD
REACHED THE PRESIDENT'S ATTENTION. BUT, HE SAID, THERE WAS
NO WAY TO SPIN A "DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY," CLOSING BORDERS,
OR CURFEWS, WITHIN THE PRESENT POLITICAL CONTEXT, IN A WAY
THAT WOULD BE WELL-RECEIVED BY THE DONOR COMMUNITY. THAT
WOULD SERVE NO PURPOSE OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE AMMUNITION FOR
THE PRESIDENT'S ENEMIES, WHO WOULD ANNOUNCE THAT HE HAD LOST
HIS DEMOCRATIC IDEALS. FAR BETTER, THE AMBASSADOR SAID,
WOULD BE TO TAKE PROPORTIONATE AND CAREFUL MEASURES TO
REASSURE THE MALAWIAN PUBLIC THAT THE MAIZE BOUGHT AND
SUBSIDIZED BY THE GOVERNMENT WAS BEING CAREFULLY AND
TRANSPARENTLY HANDLED. THOSE SHOULD INCLUDE ENHANCED POLICE
SUPPORT TO ADMARC, AND HE WOULD NOT RULE OUT USE OF THE ARMY
IN THIS EMERGENCY SO LONG AS IT WAS PRIMARILY LOGISTICAL AND
SUPPORTED THE CIVIL LAW ENFORCEMENT COMMUNITY. HE WONDERED
WHETHER THERE WERE SIMILAR CONCERNS REGARDING THE
HUMANITARIAN SUPPLIES THAT WERE BEING DISTRIBUTED BY VARIOUS
GROUPS UNDER THE WFP UMBRELLA.


14. (C) MUTHARIKA REPLIED THAT HE WAS NOT AS FAMILIAR WITH
THE HUMANITARIAN SUPPLY SITUATION BUT OBSERVED THAT SOME OF
THE NGOS INVOLVED IN THE DISTRIBUTION WERE "CLOSE TO MULUZI."
HE SAID THE POLICE WERE NOT UP TO THE TASK, SINCE THEY WERE
ENGAGED IN OTHER LAW AND ORDER EFFORTS.

THE WAY FORWARD
--------------


15. (C) THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER THEN SUMMARIZED THE
POSITION STATEMENT OF THE DONORS, IN THE FORM OF AN "OPEN
LETTER," TELLING MUTHARIKA THAT THE DONOR GROUP WOULD WELCOME
HIS REACTION TO IT. MUTHARIKA PROMISED TO DO SO, SAYING THAT
UNDOUBTEDLY BASED ON PEARY'S SUMMARY, THE PRESS WOULD SAY
"DONORS LAMBASTE MUTHARIKA." THE HIGH COMMISSIONER THEN
URGED THE PRESIDENT TO FIND A WAY TO OPEN A DIALOGUE WITH THE
OPPOSITION. MUTHARIKA RESPONDED WITH A LONG DESCRIPTION OF
PAST EFFORTS TO DO SO WITH THE MCP'S JOHN TEMBO AND A SHORTER
RECOUNTING OF HIS FOUR CONVERSATIONS WITH BAKILI MULUZI IN
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TEMBO, HE SAID, WAS SEDUCED BY
MULUZI'S PROMISE THAT HE COULD BE "PRESIDENT" OF THE NATIONAL
GOVERNING COUNCIL AND SEEMED TO WANT MUTHARIKA TO DESCEND TO
PRESENT HIMSELF AS AN EQUAL BEFORE AGREEING TO MEET. BUT, HE
SAID, PERHAPS HE WOULD PROPOSE A ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION AMONG
THE POLITICAL PARTIES (THINKING ALOUD, PERHAPS FIVE PER
PARTY) IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO TO ATTEMPT TO OPEN A
DISCUSSION.

HEADCOUNT
--------------


16. (C) AS THE TWO AMBASSADORS WERE LEAVING, MUTHARIKA NOTED
AGAIN THAT HE WAS NOT WORRIED. ACCORDING TO HIS VOTE COUNT,
THERE WERE ONLY 106 VOTES ON THE OPPOSITION SIDE.

NO SHOOTING
--------------


17. (C) AND AS WE MOVED TOWARD THE DOOR, HE AGAIN ASKED FOR
SUPPORT WITH FUEL FOR THE ARMY'S ADMARC SECURITY SUPPORT,
WHICH HE SAID WOULD HAPPEN REGARDLESS OF WHAT HE DECIDED
ABOUT MORE DRAMATIC MEASURES. THEN HE ADDED: "DON'T WORRY,
AMBASSADOR. WE ARE NOT GOING TO SHOOT ANYONE. I WAS JUST
REFERRING TO WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF THE SITUATION GETS OUT OF
HAND. AND A DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY AND THE OTHER THINGS
ARE LAST RESORTS."

COMMENT
--------------


18. (C) THIS WAS LARGELY AN EXERCISE IN SELF-JUSTIFICATION
AND SELF-DEFENSE. MUTHARIKA WAS GAUGING THE EXTENT TO WHICH
DONORS GIVE CREDENCE TO THE ALLEGATIONS AGAINST HIM. THE
DONOR LETTER, WHICH URGES EXTREME CAUTION ON PARLIAMENT IN
PROCEEDING TOWARD IMPEACHMENT WITHOUT DISCUSSING THE ACTUAL
INDICTMENT, WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE A CERTAIN DEGREE OF
COMFORT. BUT MUTHARIKA WAS ALSO CLEARLY ATTEMPTING TO
MEASURE DONOR REACTION TO THE DRAMATIC NOTION OF DECLARING AN
EMERGENCY, JUSTIFIED BY THE FOOD SITUATION, IN THE MIDDLE OF
A POLITICAL SHOWDOWN WITH HIS ENEMIES. SOME OF HIS
ALLEGATIONS WERE BEYOND BELIEF, BUT HE CONVEYED GENUINE
CONVICTION THAT MULUZI (SINGLE-HANDEDLY) IS BEHIND ALL HIS
TROUBLES, THAT VIOLENCE IS A REAL AND IMMINENT POSSIBILITY,
AND THAT "AL QAIDA" PLAYS A ROLE AS WELL. WHILE HE MAY
BELIEVE THESE THINGS, EACH OF THESE PROPOSITIONS IS SUBJECT
TO CHALLENGE. IF HE ATTEMPTS TO ENHANCE HIS POWERS THROUGH A
"DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY" HE MAY VERY WELL REINFORCE THE
EFFORTS OF MULUZI AND OTHERS TO REMOVE HIM AND PROVOKE AN
ESCALATION TOWARD VIOLENCE.


19. (C) WE WILL BE SEEING BAKILI MULUZI ON THURSDAY IN
BLANTYRE TO PRESENT THE DONOR STATEMENT AND EXPECT A
DIFFICULT CONVERSATION.




EASTHAM