Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05LILONGWE913
2005-10-19 13:36:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

MALAWI SITUATION REPORT AND FY 2006 DISASTER

Tags:  EAID ECON EAGR MI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000913 

SIPDIS

AIDAC

USAID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, ANDERSON, MUTAMBA, PETERSEN
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA ISAACS, GOTTLIEB, MARX, PRATT
USAID FOR AFR/SA LOKEN, COPSON
DEPT FOR AF/S, INR/GGI, PM/ISP
NCS FOR MELINE
PRETORIA FOR DISKIN, HALE, SINK, AND USDA/REYNOLDS
NAIROBI FOR ESTES, DEPREZ
GABORONE FOR BROWN, KHUPE
HARARE FOR PATTERSON, REED
MAPUTO FOR POLAND
ROME FOR FODAG NEWBERG, BROOKS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON EAGR MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI SITUATION REPORT AND FY 2006 DISASTER
DECLARATION FOR GROWING FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

REF: LILONGWE 000514

-------------------------------
SUMMARY
-------------------------------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000913

SIPDIS

AIDAC

USAID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, ANDERSON, MUTAMBA, PETERSEN
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA ISAACS, GOTTLIEB, MARX, PRATT
USAID FOR AFR/SA LOKEN, COPSON
DEPT FOR AF/S, INR/GGI, PM/ISP
NCS FOR MELINE
PRETORIA FOR DISKIN, HALE, SINK, AND USDA/REYNOLDS
NAIROBI FOR ESTES, DEPREZ
GABORONE FOR BROWN, KHUPE
HARARE FOR PATTERSON, REED
MAPUTO FOR POLAND
ROME FOR FODAG NEWBERG, BROOKS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON EAGR MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI SITUATION REPORT AND FY 2006 DISASTER
DECLARATION FOR GROWING FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

REF: LILONGWE 000514

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

1. This cable re-declares a disaster for FY 2006 in
Malawi due to food insecurity and provides an update on
the situation. Per reftel, it is estimated that over
four million Malawians (more than one-third of the
population) will be unable to meet their food needs over
the next six months, until the next harvest arrives.
This is due to a poor 2005 harvest, rising food prices,
and reduced purchasing power combined with chronic issues
of increasing poverty and high HIV/AIDS prevalence.
Field visits by Mission and regional DCHA staff to two
districts in the south have confirmed that food security
is deteriorating. People in affected areas have employed
coping mechanisms such as gathering wild foods and
selling firewood much earlier than usual in the hunger
season. Nutritional status is also deteriorating earlier
than expected. Additional emergency donor assistance
will be required, particularly in the areas of food
access, livelihoods/agricultural recovery, and
health/nutrition.


2. The Chief of Mission has determined that there is a
growing food security crisis in Malawi of sufficient
magnitude to warrant a disaster declaration. Per reftel,
the crisis is beyond the Government of Malawi's (GOM)
capacity to adequately respond, the GOM has requested
international assistance, and it is within the US
national interest to respond. End summary.

--------------
ACUTE PHASE OF A CHRONIC CRISIS
--------------

3. The United Nations (UN) states that Southern Africa
is entering "an acute phase of a chronic crisis". Even
more so than some other countries in the region, most
rural households in Malawi, plagued by extreme poverty,
high disease prevalence and limited livelihood
opportunities, are extremely vulnerable to shocks. Even
in good years most smallholder households struggle to get

by through a combination of own production, casual labor
(ganyu) on wealthier farms or estates, informal trading
and/or remittances. Shocks such as erratic rainfall,
rising food prices, or reduced ganyu opportunities can
thus easily push these households over the edge and into
a food security crisis.


4. This year Malawi is facing all three of these shocks.
The 2005 main harvest was the worst since 1994, due to a
combination of poor rainfall and, according to some
sources, insufficient availability of fertilizer.
Southern Region, the most densely populated part of the
country, is the most affected area. At present, nearly
all smallholder rural households in the south have
consumed their harvests and are relying on informal
trading and casual labor for money to purchase food.
Observations from the USAID team's field visit confirm
that the hunger season in Malawi is progressing more
rapidly than usual. Households are already showing signs
of stress, such as relying on the consumption of wild
foods and mangoes, reducing the number of meals eaten per
day, and selling assets. While some households will
benefit from winter crop production, the winter season
was also adversely affected by low residual moisture.

--------------
MOVING TOWARDS MVAC SCENARIO TWO
--------------

5. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC)
report released in June 2005 estimated "missing food
entitlements" under two different scenarios. In the
first scenario, maize prices were assumed to rise at the
current rate of inflation (peaking between 19-23
kwacha/kg),and the population-at-risk was estimated at
4.2 million people requiring 270,000 MT of food. The
second scenario assumed maize prices rising to South
African import parity levels (between 31-40 kwacha/kg)
with a population-at-risk of 4.6 million requiring
434,000 MT of food.


6. Data provided by FEWSNET, as well as recent market
visits by the USAID assessment team, indicate that market
prices for maize (nearly all of which has come through
informal trade channels from Mozambique) in southern
Malawi are approaching "scenario two" levels, and are
significantly higher than the same time last year. This
is an indication that supplies are more constrained than
last year, even on the Mozambican side of the border.

--------------
RISING MALNUTRITION
--------------

7. Evidence indicates that nutritional status amongst
affected populations is deteriorating in Malawi.
According to UNICEF, admissions to Nutritional
Rehabilitation Units (NRUs),which treat severe
malnutrition, are 29 percent higher than at the same time
in 2004. Action Against Hunger's (AAH) latest
nutritional surveillance report also indicates that
children are "appreciably thinner" based on z-scores than
at the same time last year.


8. The USAID team visited NRUs in Nsanje and Phalombe
districts. Numerous patients exhibited edema, an
indicator of kwashiorkor and resulting from inadequate
protein and other nutrients in the diet. This raises
concerns about the content of the household food rations
being distributed by the WFP and DFID, which currently
consist only of maize. WFP's plan does call for
distribution of cereals, pulses and vegetable oil, but
this will not start until November due to pipeline
constraints. DFID initially did not plan to distribute
commodities other than maize, but discussions are ongoing
for DFID to purchase some pulses through WFP or to lend
from WFP. The outcome of these discussions is not yet
clear.


9. The MOH, UNICEF, and its partners plan to conduct
nutritional surveys in November in the worst-affected
districts. While the surveys will provide better
information on the situation, improved outreach to
identify malnourished children, particularly in the
immediate term, is a concern. According to staff at the
NRUs, most patients are referred to the NRU from health
clinics, or self-reported by parents. Although MOH
Health Surveillance Staff also refer cases, capacity is
extremely limited. Given the likely deterioration in
nutritional status over the next few months, outreach
activities and referral systems should be strengthened to
ensure that cases are identified and treated as early as
possible.

--------------
UPCOMING PLANTING SEASON
--------------

10. Although access to sufficient inputs is a chronic
problem in Malawi, this year's bad harvest further
depleted farmer's resources (seeds, cash, etc.),making
it difficult for them to recover. Although nearly all
farmers have prepared their fields in anticipation of
planting in November, many of them do not yet have seeds
or fertilizer. Unfortunately, most farmers are counting
on accessing fertilizer through a government-sponsored
fertilizer subsidy scheme (see para 13).

11. While UNDP is seeking some USD 34 million for maize
seed and fertilizer for 2 million farmers as part of the
Flash Appeal, many people do not feel this approach is
either sustainable or appropriate. What may be more
appropriate at this point is support to short-cycle
crops, small-scale irrigation, and the 2006 winter
cropping season. In addition, better coordination of
ongoing agricultural support activities is needed.
Information on the relief community's plans to assist
farmers in the agricultural/livelihoods sector is
currently lacking (who is doing what, where, etc.).

--------------
EMERGENCY RESPONSE TO DATE
--------------

12. Apart from the GOM, a number of donors have
contributed to the humanitarian response. Major
contributors are USAID, EU, United Kingdom-DFID, World
Bank, Norway and Japan. The USG through the Office of
Food for Peace is planning to provide at least 30,000 MT
of food of which 20,000 MT has arrived or is not its way
to Malawi. A five year USAID development assistance
program through a consortium of 9 NGOs is providing a
further 12,000 MT of food. Late September, the GOM
purchased an option on the South African exchange market
(SAFEX) to import an additional 60,000 MT of maize. As
of October 1, total contribution to the humanitarian
effort is close to 255,000 MT. Now that scenario
2(424,000 MT) is likely, this leaves an unmet
humanitarian gap of some 169,000 MT. Further urgent food
assistance is required.

The government parastatal, ADMARC, continues to supply
maize to people at the subsidized price of MK 17/kg.
However, maize availability at ADMARC depots has been
sporadic and insufficient, and their national stocks are
reportedly nearly exhausted. In addition, monitoring is
insufficient to ensure that the subsidized maize reaches
the most vulnerable households. The USAID team heard of
traders re-selling maize from ADMARC depots at the higher
prices found in the markets in southern Malawi.


13. The GOM also plans to assist smallholder farmers
through a voucher scheme to subsidize the cost of
fertilizer. However, sufficient stocks of fertilizer
have reportedly not yet arrived in-country, resulting in
concern that farmers will not receive the fertilizer in
time for planting, as happened in the 2004/2005 season.
In Phalombe District, the MOA stated that only 8,200 bags
of fertilizer had been received to date out of some
79,000 MT expected for the district.


14. The UN issued a Flash Appeal on August 30 for some
USD 88 million. The appeal was revised last week to
include an additional request of USD 10 million for
nutrition activities, USD 1.7 million for water and
sanitation, and USD 300,000 for additional protection
activities. According to the UN, contributions toward
the appeal total some USD 50.9 million to date.
(Comment: The UN appeal was a surprise and involved
little consultation with stakeholders. The overall
impression is that, despite previous discussions
regarding the upcoming hunger season and recovery needs,
little planning was done by the UN or implementing
partners to assess or respond to anticipated needs in
sectors other than food aid. The international community
is now forced to play catch-up given the rapid
deterioration of the situation in recent weeks. End
comment.)


15. In the food sector, however, response capacity is
much improved over the crisis in 2001-2002. The World
Food Program (WFP) and its NGO partners have an emergency
distribution capacity already in place. DFID is also
supporting the GOM's voucher scheme to provide food to
vulnerable households in districts not targeted by WFP.
However, the level of resources provided thus far, for
both food aid and other responses, has not been adequate,
and more support is needed to ensure that we avoid a
repeat of the 2002 crisis.

--------------
USAID RESPONSE TO DATE
--------------

16. In FY 2005, USAID provided close to 35,000 MT in
food aid through its pipelines with WFP (24,360 MT)and
the PVO consortium, I-LIFE (10,530 MT). In addition, I-
LIFE is carrying out demand-driven food for work
activities aimed at creating productive assets and
infrastructure (e.g. roads and community small-scale
irrigation- ponds, dams and canals). I-LIFE is also doing
healthy and nutrition interventions in the 8 districts.
USAID has also provided USD 400,000 to UNICEF for
nutritional surveillance and rehabilitation activities in
response to the Flash Appeal.


17. Staff from USAID/Malawi and USAID/DCHA traveled to
Southern Region from August 28 to September 4, 2005 and
October 3-6 to assess the situation and discuss response
plans with potential partners. The Mission will continue
to closely monitor the situation and consider additional
response activities as appropriate.

EASTHAM