PRESIDENT RESIGNS FROM OWN PARTY, RESHUFFLES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000117

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR AF/S, INR/AA
USAID FOR AFR/SA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID KMCA MI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT RESIGNS FROM OWN PARTY, RESHUFFLES
CABINET

REF: LILONGWE 105


1. Summary: In a dramatic move, President Bingu wa
Mutharika has resigned from his own party, making a
definitive break with his predecessor, Bakili Muluzi. In
addition, Mutharika has fired two ministers and two deputy
ministers and reshuffled his cabinet. The actions are
positive moves, both for Mutharika's fight against
corruption and for his effort to strengthen his cabinet. It
is also a positive sign for continued progress on the
Millennium Challenge. End summary.

A Surprise Announcement
--------------


2. President Bingu wa Mutharika has resigned from his own
party, the United Democratic Front (UDF),after months of
wrangling with the party chairman, former president Bakili
Muluzi. Mutharika made the surprise announcement at the
conclusion of a formal speech at Malawi's National Anti-
Corruption Day on February 5, attended by the Charge and
USAID program development officer.


3. Concluding his formal remarks, the president said that he
had "two important announcements to make." He first
clarified some information about his cabinet reshuffle. He
then began to speak in a conversational tone, without notes,
about the difficulties he faced within the UDF in trying to
enact his policies. He lamented that "my party, the UDF,
has relentlessly fought against me because of my stance on
corruption." He reminded the audience that a senior UDF
official had recently admitted to ballot tampering during
the last general election, which demonstrated, the president
said, that the UDF condones corruption. He asked
rhetorically whether the head of state should continue to be
associated with such a party. Noting that his own personal
reputation was at stake, the president said that he had
"painfully decided" to leave the party and declared that
"effective today, I am no longer a member of the UDF."


4. The effect of the announcement in the room was
electrifying. Almost everyone in the audience, except for
the foreign diplomats, instantly leapt to their feet and
began cheering and clapping. The UDF singers and drummers
(present at every such event) immediately launched into a
noisy serenade. Ministers slapped each other on the backs
and were clearly delighted by the news. In an emotional
scene, several ministers mobbed the president as he
descended the stage, pumped his hand and offered their
congratulations. Home Affairs minister Uladi Mussa, who was
unceremoniously dumped from his UDF position by Muluzi
earlier in the week, lunged forward and gave Mutharika a
most un-presidential bear hug. The news was clearly a
surprise to many of the ministers, although a quick glance
around the room showed that certain key advisors had known
what was coming.

Decisive Break with Muluzi
--------------


5. In making the announcement, Mutharika once and for all
drew a clear ethical line between himself and Muluzi. His
formal speech (to be reported septel) was a very strong
condemnation of corruption, in which he promised to punish
those in the previous government who were responsible for
corrupt practices. The decision to make his announcement at
this event was a politically astute move that clearly
labeled Muluzi as part of the corruption camp.


6. Mutharika first hinted at this label in a televised
address to the nation several weeks ago, in which he
speculated that Muluzi was opposing him because of the anti-
corruption campaign. But until Saturday's speech, Mutharika
had not publicly painted the entire Muluzi camp of the UDF
as a faction for continuing Muluzi's system of patronage and
corruption.

Cabinet Reshuffle Strengthens Lineup
--------------


7. The previous night, Mutharika's office announced his
first cabinet reshuffle. Two ministers, Lilian Patel
(labor) and Chakufwa Chihana (agriculture) lost their jobs,
along with two deputy ministers. Patel and Chihana were
widely seen as the weakest in the cabinet, with the latter a
particular liability. An elderly man who seemed to have
limited interest in the job, Chihana's disengagement is
partly the reason for the government's less-than-successful
fertilizer subsidy program. Chihana was such an obvious
liability that his party, the Alliance for Real Democracy
(AFORD),had recently voted to expel him. Patel, once
foreign minister in the previous government, was seen as a
Muluzi loyalist and a weak leader.


8. The new agriculture minister is Gwanda Chakuamba, an
experienced MP and former minister who is leader of the
Republican Party. The post is absolutely critical, and the
portfolio had been adrift since the beginning of this
administration. Chakuamba's appointment will be positively
viewed by donors and the agriculture industry. The other
new face in the ministerial lineup is Martin Kansichi,
president of the Malawi Chamber of Commerce and Industry,
who will take up the job of Minister of Trade and Private
Sector Development. Kansichi's appointment will likely be
applauded by the business community, and will significantly
strengthen that portfolio.


Bingu to Form a New Party?
--------------


9. While there had been speculation in the press for several
weeks that Mutharika might exit the UDF and form his own
party, the president and his close associates consistently
denied any desire to leave, and they continued to have
discussions with Muluzi's followers. Only last Friday the
Minister of Education, who had led Mutharika's negotiating
team, was quoted as saying that he hoped that renewed
discussions with Muluzi would take place soon. However,
Mutharika was known to have been quietly sounding out
coalition partners about their allegiances in the event of a
split. It is clear now that he was using these discussions
to negotiate deals to include more third-party leaders in
his cabinet.


10. The president has made no pronouncements about his
intentions for a new party. He did drop one hint at the
event, saying to his supporters who were wearing the
trademark UDF yellow color that they should "continue to
wear yellow until we find you another color." Mutharika's
plans for any new party will be complicated by Parliament's
rule against "aisle crossing." Under the rule, MPs elected
under a party banner may declare themselves independents,
but if they switch parties, they automatically lose their
seats. This suggests that Mutharika cannot form a strong
new party, but rather will resort to building a stronger
coalition. Now that he has cut himself free from the UDF,
the absence of a "ruling party" may make it easier to build
a stronger and more inclusive coalition government.


11. Continuing the trend reported reftel, Mutharika picked
up more prominent support on February 4, when veteran
politician Aleke Banda, leader of the People's Progressive
Movement, announced that he would henceforth support the
president. Banda also announced that his party had dropped
a lawsuit that was challenging the results of the election
that brought Mutharika to power. Aleke Banda is a respected
figure who held important ministerial posts under Hastings
Banda, and his support will particularly help Mutharika in
Banda's home region of northern Malawi.

Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Bingu's weekend announcement has given him a
decisive boost in political momentum, and perhaps enough to
put an end to the Muluzi faction's real participation in
government. By choosing his own time and place, and by
choosing to frame the split as a matter of escaping Muluzi's
corrupt cronies, Mutharika has effectively declared himself
the winner in the battle against Muluzi. Muluzi mistakenly
saw this as a battle for the party, whereas Mutharika saw it-
- correctly, in our view-- as a battle for control of the
government. The UDF defections are likely to continue,
leaving Muluzi without the supporters or the government
connections to fund his patronage system. By aligning with
the President, Ministers, parliamentarians and other
officials can demonstrate their commitment to reducing
corruption, and perhaps disentangle themselves from the
political trap that Muluzi may become.


13. (SBU) Perhaps more importantly, Mutharika has taken
control of the political high ground. He has succeeded in
positioning himself as a break from the politics of self-
interested factions. He has set a clear direction for his
administration, centered on economic growth, and he has
successfully reached outside his party for support. He is
in a strong position to create a working coalition in
Parliament and to breathe a sense of common purpose into the
government bureaucracy.


14. (SBU) The move is also positive signal for Malawi's
aspirations for the Millennium Challenge. It reaffirms the
GOM's direction and aligns well with the international
community's sense of what most needs to be done: clean up
corruption, and restore fiscal responsibility. In this
case, creating a viable MCA program will be less a matter of
defining the program's direction than of finding
opportunities to help the GOM advance in the direction it
already has set out.
GILMOUR