Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05LAGOS947
2005-06-21 12:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: SOUTH-SOUTH DEMANDS TO KEEP MORE OF OIL

Tags:  PGOV NI EPET PREL 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

211234Z Jun 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000947 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2007
TAGS: PGOV NI EPET PREL
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTH-SOUTH DEMANDS TO KEEP MORE OF OIL
REVENUES


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000947

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2007
TAGS: PGOV NI EPET PREL
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTH-SOUTH DEMANDS TO KEEP MORE OF OIL
REVENUES


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: With less than two weeks remaining before
its scheduled end, Nigeria's National Political Reform
Conference's (NPRC) delegates remain divided over several
issues -- chief among them resource control and the rotation
of power, i.e. the presidency, between geographic zones.
South-South delegates have made securing a greater percentage
of the oil revenues for their states their primary goal in
the conference. They are prepared to forego claims on the
2007 presidency and bend on other issues dear to Northern
delegates to achieve that objective. Northern delegates thus
far have indicated willingness to increase the oil derivation
only marginally, prompting South-South delegates to
temporarily walk-out of the conference June 14.


2. (C) Summary Cont'd: The NPRC is replete with the
political brinkmanship, grandstanding, name-calling and
alliance-seeking that make Nigerian politics a very spice
fare. Meetings are occurring until the wee hours of the
morning and the politicking is likely to intensify as the
conference draws to a close. For now, delegates we have
talked to remain optimistic that compromises will be reached,
allowing the NPRC chair to present a final report to
President Obasanjo. From a southern perspective, President
Obasanjo's minions who wanted to use the conference to extend
the President's term or to exclude his political enemies for
seeking the highest office, have failed and lost control of
the conference. In fact the conference has become an
unsettled hornet's nest. The controversy over resource
allocation is not only a squabble over money, but it has
further stung already irritated ethnic and regional
sensitivities. South-South delegates are not likely to back
down without a lot of cajolery and a good face-saving
mechanism that will allow them to return home as "victors."
End Summary.

-------------- -
Two Weeks To Go, Delegates Walk Out of ConFab
-------------- -


3. (SBU) Inaugurated February 21, 2005, the NPRC, was
mandated to deliberate on needed reforms in six areas -
constitutional, political parties, electoral, judicial, civil

society, and social/consensus building. With only two weeks
remaining before its scheduled end, delegates remain divided
on a number of issues, particularly, resource control and the
rotation of presidential power between geographic zones. On
June 14, delegates temporarily walked out of the conference
when the Chair reported, apparently erroneously, that
agreement had been reached to increase the oil derivation
allocation from 13 to 17 percent. The week prior, South-East
delegates had to be coaxed back into the conference, when
they walked out protesting an ethnic slur made by a Northern
delegate intimating that Igbos were unfit to hold the
Nigerian presidency.

-------------- ---
Resource Control - Primary South-South Objective
-------------- ---


4. (C) The maximalist South-South position is for the zone
nominally to retain 100 percent of the oil and gas revenues
derived from "its land." Under this scenario, the federal
government would levy a heavy, up to 70 percent, tax on said
revenues in order to finance central government operations
and to distribute to other geographical zones. Privately,
South-South delegates admit their calls for 100 percent
control and threats to "take what is due the zone, if it is
not given," are public posturing, for the benefit of home
constituencies. The far likelier scenario is for the federal
government to continue collecting and controlling oil
revenues and allocating a proportion of these resources back
to oil-producing states. Most South-South delegates would
like the derivation increased from the current 13 to 50
percent. However, they recognize the improbability of such a
steep jump to that amount and would be satisfied with a
series of graduated increases over an extended time period.


5. (C) South-South delegate and Bayelsa State Information
Commissioner Oronto Douglas told us key northern and southern
delegates have been meeting behind closed doors, trying to
reach a compromise on how much to increase the oil
derivation. Douglas said proposals range of increases from
the current 13 to 17-25 percent. He said the arrangement
being discussed most widely is an immediate increase to 20-25
percent, with annual increases of 1-5 percent until the 50
percent goal is achieved. The negotiations are difficult and
Douglas was uncertain if they would be succeed. However, he
said the South-South found "insulting" the North's general
position of an increase to 17 percent, without further
increments.

6. (C) Meanwhile, South-South delegates are meeting with
presidential insiders in a bid to get Obasanjo to endorse
their position. On the day of our conversation, June 13,
Douglas said he would be meeting later in the day with
Presidential adviser Julius Iyonvbere to script the issue.
In addition, Douglas said South-South delegates had decided
to prioritize this issue over the zone's presidential
aspirations. He said that public protestations to the
contrary, were "hot air." "This is the issue we can win,"
Douglas said.


7. (C) Feeling the heat increase on this issue and on the
ethnic and regional sentiments underlying it, President
Obasanjo met South-South governors over the weekend in an
attempt to corral this dispute before it becomes too
unwieldy. So far, the governors are sticking (at least
publicly) to their position that the derivation be increased
to at least 25 percent.

-------------- --------------
You Give us Money, We Give You the Presidency...
OK and Maybe Other Goodies Too
-------------- --------------


8. (C) In a separate meeting, South-South civil society
delegate Mike Ozekhome confirmed the read-out proffered by
Douglas. Ozekhome said the southern bloc had coalesced
around resource control and was willing to offer the North
certain trade-offs in exchange for its support on the issue.
The most important concessions were the south's willingness
to drop its clamor for the presidency in 2007, and to kill
the proposal banning past military rulers from contesting
future elections, both pet initiatives of Obasanjo's men at
the conference. Ozekhome said the south had other, less
valuable chits it was willing to use in the bargaining
process. For example, instead of the proposed electronic
voting for the 2007 elections, the South could live with the
some northern delegates' preference for some sort of hybrid
"A4" voting, where voters line up publicly but still cast
private ballots. The ballots would be tallied immediately at
the polling station as opposed to being sent to central
centers. Term limits, on which the South is indifferent, but
which are anathema to the North now that it is poised to
regain the presidency, are also a bargaining lever.


9. (C) Asked about alliances forged at the conference,
Ozekhome and Douglas insisted the South-South and South-East
are united. Ozekhome said the South-West and the Middle Belt
supported the resource control platform, but neither could
not be confidently relied upon if the issue were put to a
vote. Despite some strong initial courting between the
South-South and the Middle Belt, Ozekhome said the
South-South decided to treat with a more dependable partner,
i.e. the North-West. "Only the big boys are capable of
striking a deal," he said.

--------------
Comment
--------------


10. (C) From a southern perspective, if it is true that the
convening of the NPRC was an attempt to, at a maximum, extend
Obasanjo's tenure, and at a minimum, prevent former military
leaders Babangida and Buhari from running in 2007, the plan
has gone awry. South-South delegates have succeeded in
making resource control a key issue and perhaps the
conference's most divisive one. That the South-South has
been able to manipulate the conference to this degree
reflects a growing political awakening and finesse in that
geo-political zone. In the end, however, this is not a fight
to improve democracy. This is a battle over which group of
elite gets their hands on more of the nation's bounty.
BROWNE