Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|
05LAGOS706 | 2005-05-12 11:43:00 | SECRET//NOFORN | Consulate Lagos |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. 121143Z May 05 |
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000706 |
1. (S/NF) Summary: During a recent conversation, Professor Ukandi Damachi, long time associate and adviser to former head of state Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), asserted Obasanjo may be considering a revolutionary thrust -- banning anyone who has held the office of governor or higher from the 2007 election. The prohibition would shackle former Heads of State Babangida and Buhari as well as current Vice President Atiku. Damachi claimed a position paper endorsing the ban was circulating within the inner sanctum of the Presidency and the ongoing National Political Reform Conference was the likely vehicle to disseminate the document when the Presidency feels the time is right. Babangida was incensed by this potentiality. Damachi feared his man might move against Obasanjo should the Presidency try to advance this proposal. End Summary. -------------------------- -------------------------- Obasanjo Allegedly Plans To Ban Former Office-Holders -------------------------- -------------------------- 2. (S/NF) During a late April conversation, Professor Ukandi Damachi told Consul General there is a close-hold paper circulating within the Presidency to ban anyone who has ever held state-wide or national office from holding a similar or higher office again. Damachi claimed to have heard about the document from two independent sources: 1) a journalist with a source within the Presidency and 2) the head of a GON agency who has a well-established relationship with Obasanjo but has been a long-time Damachi friend. 3. (S/NF) Damachi believed the President's men would like to introduce this measure during the National Political Reform Conference. Damachi acknowledged the ban ran counter to the draft constitutional amendment for a two year extension of the presidential term of office published by some of Obasanjo's opportunistic minions such as Special Advisor on Political Affairs Jerry Gana. In this vein, Damachi thought the Presidency was operating on parallel tracks. On one side, Obasanjo's people were seeking an avenue to keep Obasanjo in office beyond 2007 -- thus, the late introduction of the "draft constitution" that would amend his term in office from 2007 to 2009. If unable to muster support for his prolongation of office, then Obasanjo will unveil the comprehensive ban. Damachi speculated that Obasanjo's mind-set was, "If I can't have it, none of you rascals will have it." 4. (S/NF) When appraised of this potential development, Babangida grew uncharacteristically volcanic, Damachi stressed. Regarding the presidential race, the usually self-malleable Babangida has already crossed his Rubicon. There was no turning back, even for someone as adaptive as Babangida, Damachi proffered. Babangida suggested he would cause serious trouble for Obasanjo and his ability to rule if such a ban was attempted. Damachi contended IBB has been a steadying influence with the military, using his own funds to calm a disgruntled officer corps. IBB did not want a coup to derail his hoped-for presidential ascension in 2007. If his election were no longer in the cards, Babangida would withdraw his brake from the military. Moreover, Damachi thought, Babangida might even swallow his pride and seek to join league with Atiku and perhaps forget his animus for former head of state Buhari to see how best to remove Obasanjo. 5. (S/NF) Comment: Professor Damachi is one of Nigeria's most industrious information-peddlers. His record is a mixed bag. He has trafficked in both accurate and misleading information. Right now, we cannot determine whether this report is true. We tend to doubt it, however Damachi obviously gives it more credence than we do. Moreover, if Damachi has wind of a story, we can assume it has passed from his lips to Babangida's ears. Almost as important as whether the reported proposal is true is the fact that, in this turbid political environment, such a move is plausible. Just as the proposed constitutional amendment to extend Obasanjo's term has now been squeezed into the discussion at the Political Reform Conference, the introduction of the ban on politicians is not unimaginable. The ban would better enable Obasanjo to hand-pick a successor as well as to influence the gubernatorial elections. In the Nigerian parlance, this would be the best way to ensure your influence and relevance beyond 2007. However, if such a measure is proposed, it would provoke strenuous debate and cause political tensions to quickly spike. BROWNE |